2024-25 FFPC Playoff Challenge Ownership Projections
Starting somewhere around 2018, I've been projecting ownership for the FFPC Playoff Challenge.
This is a gloriously simple playoff contest.
But while rules are very simple, building a good lineup is not.
In short, you select a play from every playoff team to fill out your roster, which looks like this:
- QB
- RB
- RB
- WR
- WR
- TE
- FLEX
- FLEX
- FLEX
- FLEX
- K
- DST
- FADE
- FADE
The Super Bowl round comes with a 2x multiplier. And, as with all things FFPC, TE scoring is 1.5 PPR, with full PPR for WRs and RBs.
The "FADE" position doesn't actually exist on the FFPC site. You simply don't select anything from two of the 14 playoff teams. But I think it's important to realize that you are making a decision on these two teams.
Thoughtfully considering your fades is part of the strategy in this contest. For example, this year's field will consist of rosters with Chargers DST... with no Texan selected. If your goal is to win the contest, this is not ideal. If "soft fading" the Chargers by taking their defense, recognize that you're functionally betting on the Texans to win... and select a Texan.
And that's it. It's a very simple contest. But there's beauty in the simplicity.
This is a contest where this lineup is available to anyone who wants it:
- Josh Allen
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Bucky Irving
- Puka Nacua
- Justin Jefferson
- Ladd McConkey
- Terry McLaurin
- Travis Kelce
- Brandon McManus
- Houston Defense
- Broncos FADE
- Steelers FADE
But should you actually play this lineup?
Let's zoom out for a second. This tournament has 7,500 entries with a $200 entry fee. And here's the payout structure:
Last year, I made a big deal out of how top-heavy the payout structure was. First place was worth more than 55x the 10th place prize. That's wildly top-heavy... and significantly more flat than this year, with first place being over 71x the 10th place prize. There's no point in playing this contest unless you're gunning for a solo first-place finish.
Per Fantasy Mojo, 2022's most popular roster was entered... 100 times.
100 times!
The second most popular roster was entered... 99 times.
These 99 galaxy-brained individuals made just one pivot off the chalkiest roster, opting to play Chris Godwin and the Jaguars defense instead of Travis Etienne and the Buccaneers defense.
And these two lineups weren't the only major chalk. 32 different rosters were entered at least 10 times, with these rosters combining for an absurd 761 entries. Meaning... nearly 10% of last year's field was made up of rosters entered at least 10 times.
Last year, things were less condensed ā the field is getting sharper. The two most popular lineups were each entered 11 times. But it's still critical to avoid landing on a popular lineup.
2022's top six prizes were paid out to six different unique rosters. In 2021, the top 38 prizes all went to unique rosters. Last year, the top 39 prizes all went to unique lineups. It pays to get unique here.
This is why the simplicity of this contest is deceptive. If you play the best plays and log out, you're an absolute lock to chop the top prize, and you could be chopping with an egregious number of other contests.
In order to avoid this... it's helpful to have good ownership projections.
I have you covered.
Below, you'll find a spreadsheet with my current projections for the field. This will be updated through Friday night as news shifts.
Ship Chasing Coverage
On Ship Chasing, we're also two nights into a four-night playoff week extravaganza. Check out the first two episodes here:
FFPC Playoff Challenge Primer & Boomer Opto Reveal
FFPC Playoff Challenge - Pat's Ownership Projections
We'll be back Thursday night with Chris Gee and Drico to further discuss the FFPC contest as well as dive into the playoff contests on NFC and Underdog.
We're then closing out the week with Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer in our final preparation before building rosters.
The Current Landscape
This year, I think one of the chalkiest moves will be to play both Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson. I also think we'll see a lot of lineups with Bucky Irving/Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin. It's more comfortable to fade the Texans, Packers, Broncos, and Steelers than to pick a winner in the two highest total games of the week. By playing both sides, you can hope the game shoots out and be happy with whoever advances. It's pretty great; I'll have some of those lineups myself.
But, as a result... not playing two comfy pieces in LA/MIN and WAS/TB will be an immediate differentiator.
Another option is to play the Texans (+2.5) to beat the Chargers by picking Nico Collins or Joe Mixon and fading the Chargers. I expect the field to be heavy in the opposite direction.
Playing both sides of the Packers at Eagles, Steelers at Ravens, or Broncos at Bills should also help you get a little a little bit different.
There are plenty more pivots beyond that, though...
Here's the spreadsheet:
