2024 Legendary RB Scenarios
Three years ago, I wrote an article on Rotoworld called Don't Draft an Early Round RB Without Legendary Upside. That article series concluded with reports on which 2021 RBs had the potential to break fantasy. I continued that reporting in 2022 and 2023. Last year, I also covered the RBs in the dead zone (mostly to hype Breece Hall).
Below are this year's profiles.
What is a Legendary Season?
If you're new to the concept of legendary upside, here's the deal—RBs in the early rounds bust at high rates.
In my original research, I found that RB bust rates in the first two rounds were actually higher than in Rounds 3-6. This is despite RBs in Rounds 3-6 being such a drag on rosters that the range of the draft became the RB dead zone.
But the dead zone isn't where bust rates spike, it's where upside stops.
In the early rounds, bust rates are absolutely brutal... but there are also potentially league-winning players available.
And if we're going to risk losing our league with an early RB selection, the upside needs to be worth it.
With that goal in mind, I examined 36 RB seasons from 2000-2020 in which a running back hit 23+ PPR points per game, with 12+ games played. These seasons generated a profile to help us predict future legendary seasons.
Legendary RB Target Profile
- A path to 4+ receptions per game.
- A path to 2+ green-zone (inside the 10) opportunities per game.
- Strongly prioritize versatile running backs with paths to high-volume receiving and goal-line roles.
- A path to good, ideally elite, offensive line play.
- A path to an efficient passing offense—unless the passing offense can run through the running back.
- Be skeptical of running backs who entered the NFL below 210 pounds—unless the running back has a clear lock on goal-line duties.
- Apply extra scrutiny to running backs 26 and older.
- Excluding rare prospect profiles, remain very price-sensitive on rookies.
- Prioritize second-year players and be skeptical in assuming significant role increases for non-second-year players.
- Prioritize running backs who have flashed the elite talent required to deliver high-end efficiency.
- Strongly prioritize running backs who have flashed elite receiving ability.
This profile sets a very high bar... but that's part of the point.
From 2000-2020, there were just 1.7 legendary RB seasons per year. And since writing the article, we've had only three legendary seasons—one per year.
In 2021, Jonathan Taylor barely qualified with 23 ppg from Weeks 1-17.
In 2022, Austin Ekeler averaged 23 ppg from Weeks 1-17 and concluded his legendary fantasy campaign with 32.1 points.
Last year, Christian McCaffrey put up 24.6 PPR points per game and fell less than seven points short of his second 400+ point season. McCaffrey now has four legendary seasons on his resume.
Breece Hall also averaged 25.2 PPR points over the final five weeks of the season, which was very much the thesis of the play.
Silent Killers
Legendary seasons are rare, high-end seasons that are worth searching for. But it's not just RB injury risk that we're taking on when doing so. We're also at risk of landing on silent killers.
Bijan Robinson and Austin Ekeler were good examples of this idea last year. Robinson played 17 games but averaged just 14.7 PPR points per game. Because he went in the 1st round of drafts, his good-not-great production hurt rosters more than you might assume. His 10.3% Underdog advance rate was just 62% of the expected rate.
Austin Ekeler played 14 games in 2023, but his scoring dropped from 22.1 PPR points per game (including Week 18) down to 13.5. Like Robinson, he was a 1st round pick, leading to an 8.3% advance rate—exactly half the expected rate.
Keep in mind that Nick Chubb posted a 6.3% advance rate despite playing just two games. Silent killers are killers.
2024's ADP Landscape
Wide receivers are more expensive this year. That's especially true on Underdog, but remains a feature of the overall fantasy football landscape. Starting with even three straight WRs used to be considered pretty bold. It's now a common start even on FFPC, one of more RB-heavy ADP environments.
This has pushed RBs into Round 3+ who would likely have been in the first two rounds in previous seasons. And these cheaper RB prices make building around an RB in the top 2-3 rounds even more risky. If they don't hit in a big way, your opponents have even more options than in years past to match you with cheaper production.
That makes the risk of silent killers even greater. If you land on a 14-point-per-game back in Round 1, that's a real problem in any of the many starting RBs going in Round 7+ can replicate that scoring while paired with an elite WR.
However, there's still a clear path to building around an early-round RB.
Hero RB—taking one RB in the first two rounds and then ignoring the position until at least Round 6.
Make your bet on an RB being a legend and then hammer WR in the subsequent rounds. Add an elite QB or TE while you're at it. Build a super team.
Silent killer scenarios are likely to be especially painful this year. So... if you're taking an early-round RB, you have to be willing to bet that isn't even close to what you're buying. You're betting on a legendary season. Build like it.
2024 Legendary RB Scenarios
At the beginning of this article, I noted that each year I "report" on legendary seasons. And that's because these aren't deep dives into the statistical profiles of each RB. These are reports from the future.
Every summer, I travel to the future to observe the legendary seasons and silent killer seasons for each early-round RB.
I've just returned from January 2025. Happy New Year.
Christian McCaffrey
Legendary Scenario
Kyle Shanahan spends the early part of the season attempting to be more strategic with McCaffrey's workload. But he spent all offseason drawing up all these cool plays for him. Do you really expect him not to call them?
By mid-season, it's evident McCaffrey remains the engine of the 49ers versatile attack. His carries drop from 17 to 15.5 per game, but he's an unquestioned workhorse down the stretch.
McCaffrey also falls off slightly in rushing efficiency, dropping from 5.4 yards per carry to 4.9, just under his career average with the 49ers.
McCaffrey's receiving usage isn't affected by his slightly lighter early-season workloads. In fact, Shanahan makes it a point to get him targets when he's on the field. McCaffrey posts 77 receptions, ever so slightly improving on his per-game average with Shanahan.
Heading into a playoff rematch with the Lions, McCaffrey's season is slightly sub-legendary. But in that game the 49ers flip the script NFC championship script, jumping to a 24-7 halftime lead. McCaffrey is a key part of the action, taking a quick pass 14 yards to the end zone before punching in a goal line TD a few drives later.
The 49ers don't let up in the second half.
Instead, they lean on McCaffrey to salt away the win. He hits 120 rushing yards and scores a third time—his 20th TD from scrimmage on the year.
Like he did twice in 2023, McCaffrey hits 40+ PPR points, decisively delivering fantasy championships in all formats.
With 23.1 PPR points per game, McCaffrey cements his status as a Mount Rushmore fantasy back with his fifth legendary season.
Silent Killer Scenario
The 49ers are Super Bowl or bust. And Kyle Shanahan finally makes good on his promise to ease up on McCaffrey's workload.
McCaffrey still sees plenty of work. He averages 13 rushes per game, just below the 13.8 mark he hit in his breakout 2018 season.
But at age 28, McCaffrey isn't as efficient as he once was, making taking him off the field a little less painful in clear-cut rushing situations. McCaffrey isn't bad; he averages 4.2 yards per carry. But he operates as more of a reliable chunk-play runner than an explosive rushing threat.
Jordan Mason also plays well in relief, to the point that a reporter asks what it would take for Mason to be the No. 1 back. Shanahan loses his shit.
The answer, of course, is that McCaffrey remains one of the most versatile backfield weapons in the sport. But McCaffrey's reciving usage isn't what it once was. In Carolina, McCaffrey averaged 6.1 receptions per game. Under Shanahan in 2022-23, he averaged 4.4.
With slightly decreased playing time, McCaffrey drops to 4.0 receptions per game—a great mark for most backs but a disappointing result for the legend.
Brock Purdy also falls off slightly from his magical two-year run as the 49ers starter. He's still one of the most efficient QBs in the league, but 2023's spreadsheet-induced MVP rumblings feel like a distant memory.
This contributes to a slightly less potent offense, and McCaffrey "only" totals 12 TDs.
With 17.1 PPR points per game, McCaffrey provides plenty of good weeks but puts his fantasy managers at a considerable disadvantage, given how cheap solid RB production was in 2024 drafts.
How To Play It
At age 28, McCaffrey carries some risk. In order to be a fantasy superstar... it's very helpful to be a real-life superstar. And with every year, there's a greater chance he reaches the end of the line. Player declines are gradual in the aggregate but much more binary at the individual level.
However, McCaffrey really just needs to keep rolling to turn in a legendary season. Given how difficult these seasons are to produce, that is truly remarkable. And we simply cannot discount the fact that McCaffrey is exceptionally well suited to putting up fantasy points.
I'll lean here on what I wrote in 2021:
"It’s important to consider how many repeat performers are on this list. We have 36 legendary running back seasons; those have been produced by just 23 running backs. With that in mind, I think we should prioritize player archetype over age."
McCaffrey's player archetype is... legendary.
Managed League Recommendation: Target
Breece Hall
Legendary Scenario
When the Jets gave Breece Hall 37 carries to close out their 2023 season... you might say they tipped their hand.
The Jets have a clear formula in 2024. They stifle opposing offenses with an elite defense and lean on Breece Hall to control the game with a steady yet explosive rushing attack.
In his return from his Achilles tear, the 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers isn't the dominant passer he once was, but he consistently keeps the offense on the tracks—a major upgrade after 2023's Zach Wilson derailment.
But Hall is the real engine of the offense. After delivering 107 RYOE as a rookie and 146 RYOE in his first season off an ACL tear, the healthy veteran now gets a major QB and offensive line upgrade.
Hall leads all RBs in RYOE, posting a peak Nick Chubb-esque 300, and is good for 5.5 yards per carry.
Hall also adds a receiving element that Chubb never did. Just like he did in 2023, Hall hauls in 76 receptions.
After a league-winning 2023 stretch run, Hall records his first official legendary season in 2024.
He runs for nearly 1,500 yards and adds 12 rushing TDs. He also delivers 650 receiving yards on his 76 receptions and adds six more receiving TDs—matching Aaron Jones' career-best mark.
In Week 17, the playoff-bound Jets are far more judicious with Hall's rushing workload than they were in Week 18 of 2023.
But as part of a back-and-forth game with Josh Allen and the Bills, Hall racks up eight receptions and scores two TDs. He doesn't see 37 carries again, but he scores 37 PPR points.
Silent Killer Scenario
Breece Hall is a crucial component of the Jets 2024 offense, but ultimately, it's the Aaron Rodgers show.
And as it has been for his entire career, the Rodgers show has pacing issues.
Rodgers reintroduces the world to Green-18, using the hard count to force defensive offsides penalties. The meditative chanting also limits the Jets' drives per game.
And when those drives reach the red zone, they are frequently capped with Rodgers' TD passes rather than Breece Hall rushing TDs. Hall is also maddeningly subbed out at the goal line after several big gains in favor of the league's youngest grown-ass-man, Braelon Allen.
When it's all said and done, Hall runs for nine TDs.
And it turns out that Hall's 2023 receiving volume was, to some extent, a symptom of an offense that just could not move the ball in the traditional passing game.
Hall never approaches the 12 receptions he posted against the Commanders in 2023. He doesn't even hit the nine receptions he posted against the Browns. Instead, he peaks at eight receptions in a Week 9 loss to the Texans.
For the season, he hits 59 receptions, matching Aaron Jones' career high. After 2023's 76 reception total, it's a gut punch for fantasy managers. Three receiving TDs help, but not enough.
Hall turns in a highly productive season, totaling over 1,600 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs. But after putting up 17 PPR points per game at less than full health in a Zach Wilson offense, his 17.2 point per game follow-up performance is still deeply disappointing and he's outscored by several of the WRs going around him.
How To Play It
Breece Hall's legendary upside really comes down to how real his receiving role is.
Hall was not an especially promising receiving prospect. He ran 21 routes per game at Iowa State, which is a ton for an RB, but he posted a weak 0.98 YPRR.
However, as a pro, Hall has been spectacular in the receiving game. Over the last two seasons, Hall has averaged 1.82 YPRR, the highest mark among RBs over that span.
But Hall's had a weird start to his career. He's been in extremely dysfunctional offenses where getting the ball to him in any way, shape, or form was often the best option at hand. Rodgers will be a huge boost in many ways, but it's possible Hall is less involved in a passing game that can actually function as designed.
Hall also turned in a seriously concerning 33% success rate last year. This could potentially open the door for Braelon Allen to siphon off some short-yardage work, where Hall's superior explosiveness isn't as valuable.
However, the pessimistic view on Hall requires a downside parlay. We need Rodgers to shift the passing offense away from Hall without helping Hall achieve more consistency in the run game.
Given that the Jets have a top-10 offensive line, according to PFF and ETR's Brandon Thorn, it's hard to believe that the QB upgrade won't lead to strong rushing efficiency at the very least.
And the more you think about it... what Breece Hall was able to do last year as part of an utterly abysmal Jets offense is crazy. We thought that his biggest impediment was recovering from an ACL tear. Turns out it was playing with Zach Wilson.
And yet, despite putting up just 2.8 PPR points in Week 15, Hall averaged 25.4 PPR points per game over his final five 2023 outings.
We've heard talk that Bijan Robinson could be used like Christian McCaffrey this year. But Hall's 76 receptions last year nearly matched McCaffrey's 83. We don't have to imagine Hall in a McCaffrey-esque role; he's already in one.
With huge upgrades to the offense and a healthy offseason, Hall looks poised to combine elite explosiveness in the run game with a high-end receiving role.
Managed League Recommendation: Priority Target.
Bijan Robinson
Legendary Scenario
In one way, Bijan Robinson's 2024 season begins like 2023: Arthur Smith is on the sidelines in Atlanta.
But in Week 1, Smith is calling plays for the visiting Steelers rather than for Robinson. The difference becomes clear right away.
Under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Bijan's receiving usage spikes dramatically. He's now part of an offense intent on featuring its best weapons... even if that means throwing the ball.
Robinson sets a new career high with eight receptions in Week 1.
Not every week is quite as dramatic, but he still averages five receptions per game, good for a position-leading 85 receptions.
And Robinson isn't just a receiving weapon. He operates as the Falcons' clear lead running back, pushing Tyler Allgeier into a true supporting role. This is especially true at the goal line, where Robinson triples his 2023 rushing TD total from four to 12.
In Week 17, the Falcons travel to Washington to face a Commanders team that has emerged as a frisky fringe playoff team. With Jayden Daniels attacking downfield, the game quickly hints at shootout potential.
Robinson realizes that potential with a 35-yard TD scamper to put the Falcons up 24-20 at the half. In a back-and-forth second half, Robinson sets a new career high with nine receptions. His 185 scrimmage yards put him over 2,000 for the season.
With 23.3 PPR points per game, Robinson becomes one of the most obvious legendary RB seasons in recent memory.
It turns out an all-time RB prospect getting a massive offensive upgrade in his second season generates a lot of upside.
Silent Killer Scenario
The new Falcons offense shifts its backfield philosophy toward Robinson. His carry share jumps from 41% to 56%, in line with James Conner's 2023 mark.
But the new Falcons shifts its overall philosophy away from the backfield. Robinson gets a bigger share of the available carries. But there are a lot fewer carries to go around. He hits 220 carries, just six more than in his rookie season.
Robinson's receiving usage suffers from the opposite problem. The offensive creates a significantly bigger target pie, but Robinson gets a smaller piece of it. The Falcons value Robinson as a pass catcher, but they value pushing the ball downfield more.
Fortunately, the Falcons' overall shift to the pass still creates a slight volume increase for Robinson. He jumps from 58 receptions as a rookie to 64 as a sophomore. It's hard to complain about Robinson's reception total – which matches Rachaad White's 2023 mark – but it falls short of the massive breakout his early Round 1 drafters were banking on.
Robinson's season shifts from slightly disappointing to a genuine gut punch when the Falcons blow a 28-3 fourth-quarter lead in a Week 15 road loss to the Raiders.
It's the Falcons' ninth loss of the season, dropping them to 5-9.
Kirk Cousins isn't to blame. The 36-year-old has been fairly effective in his return from his Achilles tear. The real issue is that the Falcons can't stop opposing offenses. That creates some fun game environments, but it also creates a disastrous end-of-season incentive for Raheem Morris.
During their Week 12 bye, there were rumblings that the Falcons could turn to Michael Penix down the stretch. That speculation proved premature. But after dropping two more games in the subsequent three weeks, the Falcons opt to use their Week 16 home game against the Giants to get their future franchise QB some valuable reps. Oh, and Cousins is also dealing with "shoulder soreness."
With a rookie QB at the helm for the final three games of the season, Robinson's fantasy output tanks. Penix is decently effective at pushing the ball downfield, but he's a beat or two slow in getting to his check-downs, limiting Robinson's receiving output. Like he did six times in 2023, Robinson fails to hit 3+ receptions in Week 16 or 17.
Robinson posts a sub-10-point dud in Week 16. But he salvages Week 17 with a 23-yard TD run, hitting 17.2 PPR points on the week—matching his season average.
It's a productive and promising season, but Robinson still goes down as a painful pick, with Justin Jefferson lapping the RB's scoring despite going after him in drafts.
How To Play It
When doing the original research for this article, I was struck by how important second-year RBs looked to be.
In some ways, second-year RBs highlight something unfortunate. Most players' opportunity declines.
Football is a sport that often punishes optimism. We love to spend the summer assigning increased opportunities to promising players. But the fantasy landscape is littered with future three-down superstars who failed to deliver on their promise.
This was part of the problem with Tony Pollard last season. Sure, he also dropped from 5.2 yards per carry to 4.0 and fell off from 12 total TDs to just six... those were bigger issues. But Pollard averaged 3.4 targets per game in 2022. Then Zeke left. And Pollard jumped to just 3.9 targets per game. His receiving output fell from 371 yards and three TDs to 311 and zero.
Betting on increased RB receiving volume is dangerous.
But if we're going to venture into these waters, it's best to do so with a 2nd-year RB. Despite coming off a torn ACL, Breece Hall's receiving volume spiked from 2.7 receptions per game to 4.5. That's the kind of receiving spike we want to hit on.
And productive rookie RBs provide fertile ground for that kind of hit.
"Second year running backs who have played at least 12 games and scored at least 13 PPR points per game (the type of players we’d generally be considering in the first three rounds of drafts the following year), have increased their green zone opportunities and receptions on average. This is not something we’ve generally seen for running backs in other years. While we have seen small increases in green zone carries in years four and six as well, the effect is over twice as strong for second year players. And the second-year effect is especially clear when looking at receptions per game. Excluding year two, average receptions per game have declined in every single season for productive, healthy running backs. But in year two they’ve increased by an average of 0.25 per game."
As a legendary upside bet, Robinson requires a leap of faith. But this is a leap that history has rewarded.
Robinson, one of the best RB prospects of all time, now gets an opportunity to emerge as a pass-catching weapon and lead runner in a productive and aggressive offense. The market is making us pay up for this upside. But it's a price worth paying.
Managed League Recommendation: Target
Jonathan Taylor
Legendary Scenario
Playing alongside a healthy Anthony Richardson for the full 2024 season, Jonathan Taylor returns to his elite 2021 form. Like Derrick Henry in his prime, Taylor defies the "modern" legendary RB archetype and smashes fantasy leagues with an electric rushing campaign.
It's fitting then that one of Taylor's best rushing games is against Henry's favorite opponent—Taylor goes 27/130/2 against the Texans in Week 1. Even more fittingly, Taylor becomes a fantasy playoff hero with a 24/155/3 rushing performance against the Titans in Week 16.
Before the season, spreadsheet socialists insisted that Taylor couldn't pay off his ADP without running for a TD in every game.
Taylor does just that... adding two more for good measure.
Taylor's 19 rushing TDs are the most by any RB since LaDanian Tomlinson scored an unfathomable 28 in 2006. And combined with over 1,800 rushing yards on a league-leading 332 attempts, Taylor's rushing output is landscape-shifting.
Taylor isn't a total zero in the receiving game, either.
The Colts RB depth is so shaky that they called Dalvin Cook; Taylor logs an elite 75% snap rate.
He does his fair share of pass protection and runs plenty of empty routes, but Taylor is on the field enough to rack up 40 receptions—matching his 2022 career high and returning to the 2.4 reception per game rate he delivered over his first two seasons.
And Taylor is productive through the air, averaging nearly 8.0 yards per target for another 450 yards and three TDs.
With exactly 23 points per game, Taylor joins fantasy royalty with his second legendary campaign.
Silent Killer Scenario
Like Taylor, Anthony Richardson stays healthy all season. But this has its drawbacks.
Richardson remains a stunningly inaccurate short-area passer. And he doesn't pass short very often, opting instead to scramble at a high rate. This leads to very limited receiving volume for Taylor, who also isn't a lock to actually run a route on passing plays.
As he did in his first season under Shane Steichen, Taylor averages less than 2.0 receptions per game, recording just 30 receptions on the season. He also fails to score a receiving TD.
Taylor benefits more from Richardson on the ground, where he's able to jump from last year's 4.4 yards per carry to a much more fun 5.1 mark. He doesn't recapture his 2nd-year form (5.5), but it's still a nice efficiency boost.
However, Richardson proves to be a bit of a nuisance at the goal line, vulturing TDs with some regularity. Taylor totals just nine TDs on the season.
With just 13.8 PPR points per game, Taylor is a certified bust as a 1st round pick.
The few Taylor fantasy managers who manage to make it to their fantasy championship games hold out hope for a Week 17 breakout.
Taylor totals 106 yards on 25 touches... but is bested by Tyrone Tracy, who records eight receptions for 39 yards.
Anti-PPR demonstrators take to the streets.
How To Play It
Taylor has been a tricky player for me to think through in best ball. On Underdog, he's been a mid-2nd round pick for most of the summer. And at that price, and in a format where solid RB production goes a little further. I've been hesitant to outright fade him.
But in managed leagues, the plan of attack is easier. In the FFPC Main Event, Taylor has moved into the late 1st round. It's not fair to call Taylor an easy fade at that price. He's a 25-year-old who turned in a legendary season three years ago, plays behind a great offensive line, and with a QB who will open up rushing lanes.
But Taylor is still a fade. Taylor has a very narrow path to a legendary season. He's now entering his fifth season with a career-high of just 40 receptions. Expecting him to set new career highs while playing with an inaccurate dual threat is extremely optimistic. But he'll probably need to at least match those career highs... and then he also needs to go scorched earth as a runner.
In 2021, Taylor was a true rushing superstar. His 390 RYOE is the second-highest total on record, behind only Saquon Barkley (395) from 2018.
But he fell off in a big way in 2022. And despite being in a much better offensive situation in 2023, he fell off again while also dropping off significantly in success rate.
This isn't to say that Taylor is bad now. He's not.
But if betting on Taylor to hit a legendary season, we're asking a lot. And unless we get the absolute best version of him as part of an offense that can support elite rushing efficiency and solid RB reception volume... it's hard to see him getting there.
Managed League Recommendation: Fade.
Saquon Barkley
Legendary Scenario
Like he has throughout his career, Saquon Barkley consolidates backfield snaps. He "loses" some rushing work to Jalen Hurts, but when the Eagles hand the ball off, it's almost always to Barkley.
With 299 rushing attempts, he sees the most carries in his seven-year career.
Barkley combines career-high rushing volume with career-best efficiency, posting 5.2 yards per carry, his first season above 4.6 since his rookie year (5.0).
The tush push isn't completely removed from the Philadelphia playbook in 2024, but it's not what it was. Over time, the Eagles lean on Barkley more and more at the goal line, and he sets a career-high with 12 TDs. The Eagles' new goal line plunge play is briefly dubbed the "Barkley blast," but the moniker ultimately leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.
Barkley isn't just an early down hammer; he's a core piece of the Eagles passing game. He falls well short of the 121 targets he saw in his rookie season but easily bests his receiving lines in his other five previous seasons, with 89 targets for 66 receptions, 664 yards, and a career-high five TDs.
Barkley's 1.73 YPRR sets a new career high, easily beating the 1.53 mark from his rookie season and massively improving on the 0.95 mark he set post-ACL tear with the Giants.
In Week 17, the Cowboys push the Eagles into a true shootout. In addition to running for 110 yards and a TD, Barkley hauls in eight receptions for 72 yards and a TD.
After recording his first legendary season at just 21 years old, Barkley recaptures his early-career magic at 27 and carries fantasy rosters to the promised land.
Silent Killer Scenario
Barkley faces very little backfield competition for carries, cruising to 272 carries—the second-highest mark of his career and 43 more than D'Andre Swift saw in 2023.
But the backfield competition isn't the issue. The issue is that Jason Kelce's handpicked replacement turns out to be pretty damn good at executing the tush push. Well, that, and it turns out that having a QB who squats 600 pounds turns out to be the real key to the play.
Even still, Barkley scores eight rushing TDs, three more than Swift in 2023 and two more than Barkley's 2023 mark with the Giants. It's disappointing but not a total disaster.
Barkley's receiving production is similarly non-disastrous, averaging three receptions per game. But while Barkley bests Swift's dismal 0.82 YPRR, he doesn't improve on his own recent efficiency. Like he did with the Giants from 2021-23, Barkley averages 0.95 YPRR, totaling 342 yards and one TD through the air.
With over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and eight TDs, Barkley does enough to keep himself entrenched as the Eagle's clear-cut starter heading into 2025. But he burns fantasy managers with just 15.1 points per game as a 1st round pick.
In February, with his legendary 2018 campaign now a distant memory, the 28-year-old Barkley regularly slides to Round 6 round in 2025 best ball drafts.
How To Play It
One of my key findings when first digging into legendary RB seasons was the importance of youth.
Granted, we have had two legendary seasons over the last two years from 27-year-old RBs—Austin Ekeler in 2022 and Christian McCaffrey last year. But the point isn't to avoid all older RBs; I identified both of those players as targets entering those seasons.
Instead, the point is to recognize that legendary seasons generally require outlier efficiency, the type of efficiency much more likely to come from very young RBs.
Even with Ekeler and McCaffrey's seasons included, 62% of all legendary seasons have come from players 25 or younger, including 86% of legendary seasons since 2013.
There's two caveats here.
First, we want players who have been there before. We have 39 legendary seasons since 2000, produced by just 25 RBs. Barkley already has one legendary season to his name.
Second, receiving volume is extremely valuable. This is why McCaffrey remains a target even at 28 years old. Elite receiving production is the cleanest path to legendary upside. Barkley has a 121 target season on his resume.
Through the lens of these caveats, Barkley is a clear target.
But here's the problem. Barkley's legendary season was back in 2018. Remember Thanos' equally legendary snap? Same year.
At 27 years old, it's possible Barkley will recapture that form. But at what cost?
Barkley now has a long resume of not being the player he was in 2018. Even in his 2022 return to form, he wasn't anywhere close to his 2018 rushing efficiency.
Most importantly, Barkley's receiving production has fallen off dramatically since his rookie season. After averaging 1.53 YPRR as a rookie, Barkley fell to 1.16 in his second season. And after tearing his ACL in 2020 he's peaked at 1.02. His 0.92 mark in 2023 is a career low.
Sure, to an extent, these are Daniel Jones stats. But we just saw D'Andre Swift play alongside Jalen Hurts. Entering 2023, he has a career YPRR of 1.53. He dropped to 0.82 in 2023.
Kellen Moore should help Barkley beat that mark. But fundamentally, I expect the Eagles to remain a downfield passing offense... led by a mobile QB who is unlikely to completely stop running the most successful short-yardage play of all time.
We're asking Barkley to do something kind of nuts. At 27 years old he needs to recapture efficiency we haven't seen since Game of Thrones was still considered a good show.
And that's not all. He also needs to overcome goal line and receiving opportunity red flags.
As part of a potentially great Eagles offense, I get Barkley's appeal as a "safe" pick. But his path to legendary upside looks extremely treacherous.
Managed League Recommendation: Hard Fade.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Legendary Scenario
After operating as the Lions' secondary runner in 2023, Gibbs forces a near-even split with David Montgomery in 2024.
Gibbs jumps from 182 carries in 15 games to 230 in Year 2. His 13.5 carry-per-game average falls well short of David Montomgery's 15.6 mark in 2023 but nearly matches James Cook's 2023 carry total (237).
Unlike Cook, Gibbs actually scores rushing TDs, hitting 10 for the second straight season.
But Gibbs doesn't become a legend because of his work as a rusher. He reaches season-changing production through the air.
After finishing RB9 with 52 receptions in his 15-game rookie season, Gibbs nearly doubles his receiving output in 17 games. This is helped by a couple of missed games from David Montgomery, in which he totals 17 receptions. But Gibbs is a week-in-week-out receiving weapon, averaging 5.9 receptions per game.
With 100 receptions, Gibbs joins Christian McCaffrey (2018 and 2019), Austin Ekeler (2022), and Matt Forte (2014) as the only backs since 2010 to hit 100+ receptions.
On December 30th, Gibbs' fantasy managers enjoy a very special Monday Night Football performance. The 2nd-year phenom combines an 8/72/2 receiving line with a 12/60/1 rushing line—an appropriately outrageous conclusion to his vintage Alvin Kamara 2024 fantasy season.
Silent Killer Scenario
After operating as the Lions' secondary runner in 2023, Gibbs operates as the Lions'... secondary runner in 2024.
However, he still increases his rusing workload to 213 attempts, one short of Bijan Robinson's rookie total.
With 5.0 yards per carry, Gibbs is still very explosive, but like in 2023, Montgomery is a much more reliable runner. The Lions lean on Montgomery in short yardage. Gibbs turns in six rushing TDs, down from 10 in 2023.
Fortunately, Gibbs expands his receiving role, jumping from 3.5 receptions per game to 4.1. He goes for nearly 500 yards and two TDs.
With 59 receptions, 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and a combined eight TDs, Gibbs' second season is pretty damn impressive.
But it counts for just 15.1 PPR points per game.
How To Play It
Gibbs still shares a backfield with David Montgomery, who played well last season and was especially impressive through the lens of reliability.
Montgomery finished RB5 with a 45% success rate last season. Gibbs finished ninth-worst, with a 34% rate.
Gibbs is the more explosive runner and could take a big step forward in consistency in his second season. But as a rusher, his realistic upside is to force a true split or establish a 1A role, rather than an outright backfield takeover.
Instead, Gibbs' upside comes through his ability to go full Kamara as a receiver, racking up short receptions in an offense that excels at getting the ball out quickly.
The issue is that Gibbs... wasn't that good as a receiver last season. He had an impressive 22% TPRR but averaged just 4.9 YPT with an unimpressive 1.10 YPRR (including the playoffs).
Gibbs also finished RB44-of-49 in ESPN's receiver rating.
Gibbs is a safe bet for an expanded receiving workload this year. But to hit legendary upside he needs to see his role dramatically expand.
A dramatically expanded role is certainly possible, but with limited paths to elite rushing production, Gibbs could also break hearts if he takes a solid – but sub-elite – jump in his receiving production.
Personally, I view Gibbs as a tier below Puka Nacua, who he sometimes goes after. However, once Nacua is off the board, Gibbs is as reasonable a choice as any of the WRs. And I prefer Gibbs over both Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, who are going ahead of him in recent Main Event ADP.
Managed League Recommendation: Target in the 2nd round.
Kyren Williams
Legendary Scenario
After spending the offseason promising to lighten Kyren Williams' load, Sean McVay is true to his word... sort of.
Williams drops from his 19-carry-per-game average in 2023 to a slightly more reasonable 18. But over the course of a 17-game season, that's still good for an NFL-leading 306 attempts.
It's easy to understand why Sean can't help himself. Williams maintains very strong efficiency on his elite workload, hitting 5.0 yards per carry for the second straight year. And he's just as effective at the goal line, averaging a rushing TD per game, just as he did in 2023.
Williams isn't quite elite as a pass catcher, but he gets significant work. He jumps from 2.5 receptions per game to 3.8, spiking from poor receiving efficiency in 2023 to a respectable 1.08 YPRR. He's also a weapon in the green zone, catching another four TDs.
With 2,016 yards from scrimmage and 21 TDs, Williams makes his 2023 season look like an injury-riddled down year.
Fantasy managers learn the errors of their ways and spend the 2025 offseason targeting starting RBs who return punts.
Silent Killer Scenario
Williams, a 194-pound back who missed 35% of his career games due to injury leading up to the 2024 season, is – are you sitting down? – not used as an every down workhorse in 2024.
Williams remains a key contributor for the Rams. But Blake Corum proves capable of regularly handling entire series for the Rams, allowing McVay to avoid substituting without having to play Williams on a league-leading 82% of snaps, as he did in 2023.
Williams still sees plenty of work. He logs 238 carries, good for RB8 in 2024. And he produces efficiently with 5.0 yards per carry, matching his 2023 mark.
But Corum's ability to take entire series becomes extremely annoying when those series end in rushing TDs... with Williams on the sideline. He still scores a respectable eight TDs, but after a 12-TD 12-game campaign, it's a disappointing outcome.
Williams' receiving production is an even bigger issue. He posts a very poor 0.63 YPRR. Fantasy managers are in disbelief at how Williams could fall off so dramatically as a receiver, only to discover he posted the exact same YPRR in 2023.
With 13.3 points per game, Williams keeps his spot in fantasy starting lineups all season. But his managers still seethe as their opponents match Williams' production with sixth, seventh, and eighth-round RBs.
How To Play It
Kyren Williams is really good.
He finished RB6 in RYOE behind only Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, James Conner, Jaylen Warren, and Breece Hall. And he paired that efficiency with consistency, with an elite 47% success rate.
But Williams is not a home-runner hitter. Per NFL Next Gen, he hit 20+ MPH just once in 2023, a run where he was chased down from behind.
This is a mark that Breece Hall and De'Von Achane each hit six times last year. Kyren's athleticism has not been a limiting factor in him establishing himself as a highly productive starting NFL RB... but is still limiting in how Kyren can score points.
Williams is a bet that in 2024 – just like 2023 – he will be far and away the Rams' best RB. That he will be the only man for the job.
If that bet hits and he stays healthy, he's going to smash. Williams is extremely reliable, consistently adding positive gains in the run game. With the volume turned up, that leads to big-time fantasy outings.
But at this price... there's really no backup plan. Williams' 0.63 YPRR from 2023 is an extremely bright red flag. He's at 0.69 for his career.
To some extent, his receiving efficiency reflects offensive design. He had just a 14% TPRR last year. Stafford wasn't really looking for him.
But is he going to look for him more this year? With a healthy Cooper Kupp? Honestly, Williams would probably do well to match last year's 2.5 receptions per game.
And it's worth noting that Williams had just 4.5 YPT last year. He was a reliable outlet. But, again, explosiveness is an issue.
All in all, Williams is a player where we need to proceed cautiously if his every-down role is at all under threat.
Is it?
We're reading tea leaves here, but I'm not loving what we're seeing.
After a season where Williams consistently churned out positive gains as the Rams clear lead back, he'd normally seem like a very safe bet.
But that safety relies on ignoring the fact that if Williams drops to ~13 points per game as a 2nd round pick, it's a fantasy disaster. He's a safe bet to at least score at that level... but considering his price, that level of scoring is a safe bet to tank your roster.
Williams can be had in the 3rd round of Underdog best ball drafts, and I've gotten some exposure there, where non-legendary scoring goes a little further. But I'm not looking to build a managed team around him.
Managed League Recommendation: Fade.
De'Von Achane
Legendary Scenario
Coming off a season where he averaged a truly insane 7.5 yards per carry (including the playoffs), fantasy managers are giddy with excitement to see Achane hit the ground running in 2024.
But against Jacksonville in Week 1, Achane is... normal. He runs 12 times for just 54 yards scoreless yards.
But there's a silver lining.
Achane hauls in five receptions for 46 yards. His Week 1 15-point PPR outing is ho-hum. The rest of the season is anything but.
Achane doesn't always see a big workload, seeing less than 10 carries in five games. And he isn't always very efficient, averaging less than five yards per carry in seven games.
But when Achane hits... he hits.
In Week 8, he runs for 197 yards and three TDs against the Cardinals. GPP bros chase the "run funnel" Cardinals defense the following week, only to watch a chalky D'Andre Swift fizzle. Achane, meanwhile, is on to Buffalo.
Against the Bills in Week 9, Achane logs just nine carries. But this is when it fully clicks for Achane's fantasy managers. They finally realize who they've drafted. While trailing against Josh Allen, the Dolphins feature Achane in the receiving game. He sets a career-high eight receptions for 70 yards and a TD. Achane rushes for just 40 yards... and still scores 25 PPR points.
The following week, he lights up the Rams on the ground and through the air, totaling 155 yards and scoring twice. Achane is officially a receiving star, ultimately finishing with 1.88 YPRR and averaging 4.5 receptions per game.
Things cool off from there for a bit. But Achane's increased receiving output keeps him from turning in many true duds. And after his mid-season explosion, fantasy managers are willing to ride out the lows.
Their faith is rewarded in Week 17.
By this point in the season, the Browns offense is clicking, thanks to Watson.
Yes, that's right, Greg Watson, renowned LASIK surgeon, becomes a local Cleveland hero as Jameis Winston captains the offense to a prolific run.
With the Browns aggressively attacking through the air, the Dolphins follow suit. Tyreek Hill has a great game. But Achane becomes a legend.
He matches his career high in yards from scrimmage with 233, hauls in seven receptions, and scores three times. The 48-point outing easily wins leagues.
In the post-game presser, Mike McDaniel cryptically gloats. The following week, the Jets shut out Miami, and the Dolphins miss the playoffs.
Silent Killer Scenario
In 2024, De'Von Achane operates as an explosive and versatile playmaker.
He is deployed creatively and effectively in tandem with yet another twist on Tyreek Hill's pre-snap motion, which defensive coordinators begin referring to as "fuck me running."
The only issue is that Achane is deployed tactically. He has to be game-planned for, but he's not actually in the game very often.
In part, this is made possible by a healthy season from Raheem Mostert. But Jaylen Wright also fits into the offense nicely and produces an impressive rookie season.
Achane is one of the most efficient runners in the league, but with just 153 carries, his volume is near backup RB territory.
Achane's receiving promise also fails to materialize. He's slightly more efficient, jumping from 1.14 YPRR to 1.27. But with just 2.8 receptions per game, he's not consistently involved in the passing game.
Achane has a couple of nice outings, but they're impossible to predict and he becomes known as the Gabe Davis of Jamaal Charles'.
How To Play It
By historical standards, Achane is one of the stranger 2nd round picks we've seen. It's legitimately hard to project him for anything close to the typical workload we get at this price.
Achane has reportedly put on weight this offseason. But those reports still have him at sub-200 pounds. And so, even in his legendary scenario, he was seeing just 13 carries per game.
When looking at the legendary seasons since 2000, weight jumped out as a key factor.
"Only two running backs who entered the NFL sub-200 pounds went on to post a legendary season: Chris Johnson and Jamal Charles. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that those two running backs are arguably the best breakaway runners of the current century."
On the one hand, this should make us skeptical of Achane.
On the other hand... the dude profiles as an absolutely elite breakaway runner. His 2.87 RYOE per attempt is the highest mark on record. And Achane paired that with an elite 47% success rate, indicating that he's reliable enough for more volume.
We also have one more sub-200 pound legendary season recently added to the list: Austin Ekeler's 2022. Of course, Ekeler is an elite receiving weapon. Achane has not been.
But we don't need an Ekeler-esque 6.3 receptions per game. Instead, we're looking for the type of jump that Breece Hall made—he went from 2.7 reception per game as a rookie to 4.5 last year. Achane was at 2.6 last year.
This jump is crucial for Achane to hit a legendary season, but as a 2nd-year back, it's a realistic possibility.
Ultimately, Achane is a somewhat thin bet for a legendary season. But he looks extremely capable of turning in legendary games. As part of builds that prioritize WRs early, he's a strong pick.
Managed League Recommendation: Target.
Derrick Henry
Legendary Scenario
Derrick Henry's arrival in Baltimore fundamentally changes the team's philosophy.
It turns out that not having to rely on castoff RBs like Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, Kenyan Drake, and Dalvin Cook makes a pretty big difference. Derrick Henry might be up there in years, but he still has plenty left in the tank to run efficiently in a Lamar Jackson offense.
And Henry runs the ball... a lot. He leads the NFL with 332 carries. It's not quite a vintage 378 carry (2020) or even 349 carry (2022) campaign, but with 19.5 carries per game, it's a big increase on his 16.5 average from 2023.
Unsurprisingly, Lamar Jackson opens up rushing lanes. Henry averages 5.5 yards per carry, setting a new career high. And he runs for 18 TDs, besting his previous career high of 17 (2020).
Henry is very much a two-down RB, with Justice Hill mixing in on receiving downs. But the Ravens get him involved in the screen game and the occasional dump-off, allowing him to average 2.5 receptions per game and score another three TDs.
In Week 17, Henry gets his favorite opponent for Christmas. He turns it into a gift for his fantasy managers. Henry rushes for 202 yards, the first 200+ rushing day by a Ravens RB since 2011. And he scores twice.
Yet again, Henry dunks on the fantasy analysts who put him on their do-not-draft lists. The experts knew better.
Silent Killer Scenario
Derrick Henry is a solid addition to the Ravens offense. When Baltimore needs to lean on the run or punish defenses for focusing on shutting down the deep ball, Henry is a big upgrade on Gus Edwards.
But at 30 years old, Henry isn't the game-plan-altering force he once was.
Still, he handles 238 carries, 40 more than Gus Edwards saw in 17 games in 2023. Henry also scores 14 TDs, one more than Edwards.
But like Edwards, Henry is barely involved in the passing game, totaling just 21 receptions on the season. It's a disappointing result while also being the third-highest mark of Henry's career.
Henry's backers feel somewhat vindicated after a 126-yard rushing game in a Wild Card win over the Jets. But their attempted "DeHanuary" rebrand does not catch on.
How To Play It
Derrick Henry is a true two-down back. He has a career-high of just 23 receptions and has hit 20+ just twice. He now joins a team that threw to the RB just 56 times last season—the third-lowest total in the league. Half of those receptions went to Justice Hill.
It's possible Henry will set a new career high in receptions with the Ravens, but far more likely he will settle somewhere in the 20-30 range.
This significantly narrows his path to legendary upside.
The remaining path is unreal rushing production.
Henry was actually on his way to delivering this in 2021, producing 23.4 PPR points per game before suffering a season-ending foot injury.
But in that season, Henry averaged 27.3 carries per game. Over a 17-game season, he was on a 465-carry pace. The entire Ravens backfield combined for just 364 carries last season.
And it's important to realize that this is no longer the Greg Roman Ravens. Roman was consistently run-heavy over his four-year tenure as Baltimore's OC.
In fact, he operated very similarly to the Mike Vrabel Titans.
But under Todd Monken last season, the Ravens shifted gears. They actually passed more than expected, once game situation was factored in. And they were aggressive on 1st-and-10, signaling a much less conservative approach.
This new look offense was much more similar to how the Eagles operate.
However, the Ravens defense hid this change in philosophy. Passing more than expected doesn't mean much when the expectation becomes a run-heavy attack to salt away a big lead.
It is critical to consider that the Ravens defense wasn't just really good last year. It was historically good. Per the Ringer's Sheil Kapadia:
"According to the FTN Football Almanac, the 2023 Ravens had the eighth-best defensive season this century. Only five teams generated more expected points added on takeaways last season."
The Ravens lost defensive coordinator Mike McDonald. And while they're still expected to have a good defense, we cannot count on the dominance we saw in 2023.
And this really squeezes Henry's volume-based path... because there wasn't enough volume in the rushing attack last year.
So what do we have left?
Efficiency.
But now we're counting on a 30-year-old RB to hit 5+ yards per carry for the first time in four years. Or to score a bajillion TDs.
Like everyone else, I expect Henry to score a bunch of TDs. But even a ~14 TD campaign could leave fantasy managers wanting unless he's shockingly active in the passing game.
Managed League Recommendation: Fade.
Isiah Pacheco
Legendary Scenario
Pacheco showed during the Chiefs' 2023 Super Bowl playoff run that he's capable of being a true early-down hammer—handling 20 carries per game. After averaging 14.6 carries per game in the 2023 regular season, he jumps to 17 in 2024, matching Kareem Hunt's 2017 season with the Chiefs. And Pacheco hits 5+ yards per carry for the first time, setting a new career high with an ultra-efficient 5.5 mark.
But Pacheco doesn't see as much work as he did in the playoffs for the simple fact that the Chiefs are a very different team in 2024 than they were in 2023. With a full 17-game season from Rashee Rice, a healthy Travis Kelce, a solid veteran in Hollywood Brown, and the fastest WR in Combine history, Andy Reid is cooking again.
The Chiefs shift away from running the ball. But they don't entirely shift away from Pacheco. In his third season in the offense, he's more trusted than ever on passing downs and jumps from 3.1 receptions per game to 4.0.
With a variety of weapons to account for, Pacheco rips off big gains on well-designed screens, jumping to 1.40 YPRR and scoring three TDs through the air.
But Reid's trust in Pacheco is most evident at the goal line. Reid sets aside his bag of tricks and feeds Pacheco up the middle for 10 green zone rushing TDs. Pacheco scores four more TDs from distance. His 15th TD comes on a reverse pitch from Skyy Moore. Ship Chasing finally updates the clip.
With 2,150 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs, the former 7th-round pick underlines what we've known for years... bet on Andy Reid's running backs.
Silent Killer Scenario
Pacheco operates as the Chiefs' clear-cut lead runner in 2024. He handles 238 carries, besting his previous career high by 33 carries and finishing RB10 in attempts.
It's a solid workload, but not an elite one. And Pacheco's efficiency is far from elite as well. He turns in 4.6 yards per carry, matching his career average.
The Chiefs offense returns to its pass-heavy baseline in 2024, but it's not quite in peak form. Xavier Worthy has his share of highlight reel plays, and Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce help Mahomes move the ball very steadily through the air. But Worthy struggles with consistency and physicality, Rice fails to take another step forward as a target earner, and Kelce loses another step. By mid-season, Kelce is dropping Manscaped promo codes into his post-game interviews. Chiefs fans prepare for his imminent retirement.
The Chiefs' passing game is still in better shape than it was in 2023. Clearing that low bar creates more passing attempts. But they aren't lighting up opposing defenses on a consistent basis.
This creates a worst-of-both-worlds situation for Pacheco, who sees fewer carries without feasting on TD opportunities. He scores just seven times all season, besting his 2022 mark (five TDs in 17 games), but falling two short of his 2023 regular season TD total.
Pacheco also has to deal with a Samaje Perine shaped thorn in his side. Perine rarely mixes in for carries, but over time he becomes a staple of passing-down sets. As a result, Pacheco drops from 3.1 receptions per game down to 2.4.
With just 12.8 points per game, Pacheco adds some reasonable production, but drafters who spent an early third-round pick on him have trouble making the fantasy playoffs.
In Week 17, with the Chiefs passing constantly against the Steelers defense, downtrodden Pacheco drafters catch themselves wishing he played for Arthur Smith.
How To Play It
Being attached to elite an passing offense has historically helped RBs produced legendary seasons.
"58% of legendary seasons have come from top 10 passing offenses as measured by Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (which factors in TDs, interceptions and sacks into the yards per attempt calculation)."
We definitely want RBs on good passing offenses, all things equal. But being attached to a good passing offense isn't enough on its own. And in Pacheco's case, it could be far from enough because Pacheco isn't very involved as a pass catcher.
Pacheco is coming off a season where he posted 0.83 YPRR.
But let's add some context. Although, wait, no, hang on, the context actually makes it worse.
The Chiefs' veteran WRs were a disaster last season, forcing Mahomes to throw underneath at a high rate... and Pacheco still posted an unimpressive 17% TPRR.
We now are in a situation where we're hoping for Pacheco to expand his receiving role and increase his receiving efficiency in Year 3. That's a dangerous bet, especially with the Chiefs signing Samaje Perine, who could operate as a receiving specialist.
The other nice thing about being tied to an elite passing game is that it can help create rushing TD opportunities.
Pacheco's legendary upside is extremely dependent on those TDs materializing because his path to an elite rushing workload is extremely thin. To become a legendary back, he needs to hit in the style of Jonathan Taylor, as an elite breakaway runner who scores a boatload of TDs.
Unfortunately, we just don't have much evidence that Pacheco is that guy. He's not bad. His numbers are similar to Taylor's non-legendary seasons.
But it's one thing to bet on Jonathan Taylor to recapture previous efficiency and quite another to hope that a different player becomes 2021 Taylor.
And even if he does, we're likely talking about a back with less than 300 carries, rather than the 332 that Taylor racked up in 2021. So to truly hit a legendary season, Pacheco would need to add more as a receiver than Taylor did in 2021... significantly more receiving upside than Pacheco has flashed to date.
Honestly, Pacheco's paths to legendary upside are:
- What if he transforms into an entirely different player?
- What if the Chiefs transform into an entirely different team?
The legendary scenario I outlined above falls into the first category, with Pacheco simultaneously breaking out as a receiver and rusher. As implausible as that is, I still think it's more likely than the Chiefs bringing in multiple WR upgrades and then building a Patrick Mahomes offense around an RB.
The only real pushback I see here is—do we actually need legendary upside from Pacheco?
There was a time this summer when the answer was no. In June best ball drafts, Pacheco would sometimes fall into the 5th round. At that price, moderate production is a lot more palatable.
But now that he's moved into the 2/3 turn range, the price is demanding a higher-end range of outcomes than Pacheco appears to offer.
Managed League Recommendation: Hard Fade.
Travis Etienne
Legendary Scenario
When the Jaguars' offense is on the field, opposing safeties have never been higher. Gabe Davis is glued to the outside of the formation, constantly challenging deep. And on the other side... Brian Thomas is glued to the outside of the formation, constantly challenging deep.
This opens up a ton of space underneath, and Doug Pederson does a good job of utilizing that dynamic to get the ball to Travis Etienne in space. He sets a new career high with 30 screen targets, matching Breece Hall's league-leading 2023 mark.
This helps boost Etienne's receiving efficiency to 1.43 YPRR and helps him score four receiving TDs.
The high safeties also help Etienne recapture his 2022 rushing efficiency. Like he did in 2022, he averages 5.1 yards per carry. But instead of scoring just five TDs, he punches in 16.
With an outrageous 20-TD campaign, Etienne finally emerges as one of the NFL's truly elite RBs.
The Jaguars spend the 2025 offseason talking up Tank Bigsby.
Silent Killer Scenario
The Jaguars are serious about their desire to ease up on Travis Etienne's workload. He drops from 15.7 carries per game in 2023 to 14.0 in 2024. His workload is still well above his 2022 levels (12.9 carries per game), but the lost volume hurts.
Because Etienne isn't very efficient.
Sure, he's better than the 3.8 yards per carry mark he posted in 2023. But at 4.2 yards per carry, he's extremely average. He punches in eight TDs, but after 11 in 2023, that feels like a disappointment.
And it turns out that adding passing weapons to the offense makes Etienee's receiving role... less important. He drops to 2.3 receptions per game, matching his 2022 output. And Etienne isn't especially efficient as a receiver. His 1.06 YPRR matches his career mark.
Etienne averages just 13.1 points per game, disappointing his fantasy managers. Jaguars fans are just as unhappy with an offense that struggles to find consistency all season.
In the 2025 offseason, the Jaguars clean house, bringing in Dolphins OC Frank Smith as their new head coach.
Smith hints at using Etienne in a McCaffrey-esque role in 2025 before using him exactly like Pederson did.
How To Play It
Last season, after digging into the legendary scenarios, I came away feeling less optimistic about Travis Etienne at a 3/4 turn. And that was when he was coming off a season with very strong rushing efficiency.
The issue I identified was his ceiling.
- I was skeptical Etienne could get to 4+ receptions per game.
- I was skeptical he could see a 300+ carry workload.
- Even with increased usage, he needed to score a ton of TDs.
Ultimately, Etienne improved across the board.
- He jumped from 2.1 receptions per game to 3.4.
- He jumped from 220 carries to 267.
- He jumped from five total TDs to 12.
Last year, my recommendation was to target Etienne in Round 4. And with 16.4 points per game, he was a good pick... in Round 4.
But as part of last year's improved production, Etienne's rushing efficiency cratered. He flashed very exciting potential in 2022, but last season was a legit red flag.
We're now asking Etienne to return to his 2022 form while maintaining his 2023 rushing workload. Oh, and he also needs to take another step forward as a receiver while running extremely hot on TDs. That's likely what it'll take for him to hit a legendary season.
Granted, if he falls to you in the 3rd round, a truly legendary season isn't strictly necessary. The opportunity cost in Round 1 is a lot higher than in Round 3; small hits go further as the price drops.
But Etienne still has major silent killer risk at his current price. After seeing his rushing efficiency crater, I feel worse about the bet. And that bet has become significantly more expensive to make.
Managed League Recommendation: Hard Fade.
Pat Kerrane
