A Very Merry Walkthrough: A.J. Brown Steals Christmas

Pat Kerrane

23 Dec 2023

This mini-Walkthrough is completely free - Happy Holidays!

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).

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Raiders at Chiefs, 1 PM

Raiders Implied Team Total: 15

In the summer, I always struggle to remind myself how insane the NFL season is actually going to be. 4th-round rookie Aidan O'Connell leading the Antonio Pierce Raiders to 63 points against Easton Stick and the Chargers, leading to Brandon Staley being fired the next day, feels like a helpful example to keep in mind.

The Raiders posted just a 59% pass rate against the Chargers, but given the game script, they actually played things aggressively.

It's nice to know that Pierce is willing to press an advantage. But we've already seen him take on the Chiefs, and he played things pretty conservatively.

That's a defensible approach against a Chiefs defense that is very weak against the run.

Pierce should feel more confident in his running game, with Josh Jacobs likely to return this week... although Jacobs has been far better as a receiver than a rusher this year. Still, Jacobs leads all RBs in carry share this season and is a good bet for a strong workload, even in his first game back. He's a volume-based RB2.

O'Connell has been pretty impressive in several games this season, but when things aren't going well... they often go disastrously. The end result is poor efficiency.

The Chiefs are a difficult passing matchup, ranking second in dropback success rate and third in EPA allowed per dropback.

The Chiefs are also very strong against first-reads, which isn't ideal for Davante Adams. Although, when he played the Chiefs in Week 12, he still managed a 5/73/0 receiving line... it's pretty hard to shut Adams down.

Jakobi Meyers could see a slight boost here. His route running has been solid this year, and he's shown an ability to earn targets beyond his first-read looks. He's not the high-end WR2 that Adams is, but he's a solid FLEX.

Michael Mayer's 4/39/1 receiving line against the Chargers was good for my best ball bags, but he posted just 59% route participation – Adams was at 100% despite the blowout win – and remains just a TD dart throw.

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 25.5

It's been a few weeks since we've seen impressive efficiency from Patrick Mahomes. In fact, he has just one high-end outing since lighting up the Chargers in Week 7.

But that outing was against the Raiders.

We also saw the Chiefs pass aggressively against this Raiders defense. Typically, that's a given for the Chiefs, but they've been a little more conservative recently.

Even with Mahomes' struggles, he's still profiling as a high-end QB. He just hasn't been elite, which feels weird.

And helpfully, the Raiders are not good at limiting first-reads. First-read efficiency has been an issue for the Chiefs this season. For most of the year, defenses have been well aware that Travis Kelce will be the primary look on a big slice of dropbacks.

Kelce remains the clear No. 1 and posted 6/91/0 on seven targets against the Raiders in Week 12. But he's no longer the only high-end option in the passing game.

Rashee Rice announced himself as a difference-making WR in his last game against the Raiders, posting an 8/107/1 receiving line on 10 targets. But he did so on just 68% route participation. He then saw 68% route participation again the following week. But in Week 13... he jumped to 82%. And he was at 93% last week.

And Rice's target earning ability hasn't gone anywhere. He has a 25% TPRR over the last two weeks, in line with his season long average.

With 2.35 YPRR and a full-time role in the offense, Rice looks like a legitimate rookie breakout... and he's breaking out in a Patrick Mahomes offense that desperately needs a No. 1 WR. He's a low-end WR1.

Outside of Kelce and Rice, it's tough to trust anyone. Justin Watson posted 11 targets in Week 11. He's totaled seven targets in the four games since. And he's in a part-time role, with 58% and 61% route participation over the last two weeks... and he looks like the best ancillary bet.

In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco will return after missing the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Pacheco will be going against a mediocre Raiders run defense.

Pacheco has been a very solid rusher this year and projects for a solid workload. He's a high-end RB2.

Giants at Eagles, 4:30 PM

Giants Implied Team Total: 14.75

Tommy Devito is going to get another start this week, but his week 14 efficiency completely disappeared against the Saints last week.

Brian Daboll was willing to let him pass, though.

Overall, Devito has been very rough. He's a bit like Bailey Zappe in that he can provide some fun moments. But ultimately, we should not expect a productive passing game at baseline.

The good news is that Devito now gets an Eagles defense that has a vulnerable secondary... although they also have a very effective pass rush.

The matchup sets up pretty well for Wan'Dale Robinson. Robinson is coming off 91% route participation against the Saints, so he should be out there a bunch. Robinson is a very specific type of WR, with an ultra-shallow 4.4 aDOT. But he plays that role effectively, ranking 79th percentile in open score.

And Robinson has been the Giants' go-to WR when getting the ball out quickly. On routes of 2.0 seconds or less, he has a 29% TPRR. He's an interesting short-slate punt.

Darren Waller returned last week but only logged 47% route participation. However, in his second game back we could see his playing time meaningfully increase. Waller has also been involved on quick throws this year with a 22% TPRR. And his overall profile is pretty strong. He's in the low-end TE1 mix.

The Giants probably can't get away with running the ball a ton here, but the matchup isn't especially imposing.

Saquon Barkley has been very impressive this year. His offensive environment is hiding a strong season. He's a high-end RB2 as a bet on his explosive rushing ability.

Eagles Implied Team Total: 28.25

Outside of their loss to the 49ers, the Eagles have played things pretty conservatively since their Week 10 bye. Frankly, they've been too conservative. They only allowed 20 points to the Seahawks last week... but they still lost.

But the Eagles now get a Giants run defense that will be hard to resist.

And the Eagles are managing a stretch of play from Jalen Hurts that hasn't been ideal. Although, Hurts' efficiency looked better against the Seahawks than it has in weeks.

And Hurts gets a Giants defense that is also beatable through the air.

We can expect the Giants to blitz, as usual. But Hurts has been good against the blitz this season, with a 49% success rate.

We shouldn't expect a ton of passing volume this week, and Hurts might not take full advantage of this matchup. But the zoomed out view is that Hurts is a great QB... in a pretty great matchup.

And we know where targets will be going. A.J. Brown was held to a 5/56/0 receiving line against the Seahawks, but all nine of his targets came on first reads. And he's been the Eagles' clear No. 1 against the blitz this year. DeVonta Smith has a 17% TPRR on blitzed dropbacks... A.J. Brown is at 35%. It's been a quiet stretch for the elite WR, but this looks like an eruption spot.

DeVonta Smith doesn't have the same pure ceiling as Brown, but he's a solid WR2.

Dallas Goedert runs a ton of routes for a tight end, with 90% and 92% route participation since returning from injury. He's in the low-end TE1 mix as a bet on the offense.

D'Andre Swift looks locked into his usual role, but his efficiency is looking pretty shaky at this point. Normally I would call him a TD-dependent RB2... but we know what the Eagles are going to do at the goal line. Still, he's a viable starter.

Ravens at 49ers, 8:15 PM

Ravens Implied Team Total: 20.5

Fundamentally, here's my take on the Ravens... I would really to see them in game scripts where they have to pass more often.

Because, in Week 14 – the only time they've had an expected pass rate of 65%+ – things got pretty fun.

But the Ravens' elite defense makes it hard for opposing offenses to generate shootout game scripts.

If anyone is up for the challenge... it's the 49ers. Their elite offense has turned them into a massive pass funnel.

The 49ers are actually much weaker against the run than the pass. So if the Ravens' defense is able to contain the 49ers' offense, the Ravens might not feel obligated to pass aggressively.

Even if the Ravens are passing aggressively, it could very well be from a position of weakness and they'll be going against an elite pass defense.

But I'm willing to make a few sacrafices for passing volume. And there's a clear path to volume here.

And although Lamar Jackson hasn't been elite this season, he's having a strong year. He's capable of producing even in a tough matchup.

If we see increased passing volume this week, Zay Flowers should run a ton of routes. He's posted 100% route participation for three straight weeks.

But if the passing pie grows, Odell Beckham is just as interesting. Beckham is running limited routes, but he's being targeted at a very high rate and delivering high-end efficiency. Both WRs look like FLEX options.

Rashod Bateman saw a mini target spike last week, but his overall profile remains pretty weak.

Isaiah Likely looks like the more appealing ancillary option. He's in the low-end TE1 mix as a bet on the offensive environment.

Keaton Mitchell's knee injury opens the door to a bigger role for Gus Edwards. Edwards hasn't handled 50%+ carries since Week 10, but he's a good bet to hit that mark here. And he's in play as a TD dart throw. He's less explosive than Mitchell, but Edwards has been impressively consistent this year.

49ers Implied Team Total: 26.5

As I predicted... Brock Purdy's efficient play against the Cardinals only further polarized the MVP debate. Given the discourse, a 99th percentile mark in EPA per play is genuinely funny.

If Purdy can post similar efficiency in this matchup... he should have the MVP locked up. The Ravens are an elite defense.

Fortunately, the Ravens' pass rush isn't nearly as strong as their secondary. And Purdy has been absolutely deadly from a clean pocket this year.

But passing volume isn't assured. If the Ravens play aggressively, this game could shoot out in a major way. But with two elite defenses involved, there are also clear paths to this game going under its 47-point total. One of those is the 49ers attacking on the ground against a mediocre Ravens run defense.

And the 49ers have shown a strong preference for running the ball when playing from ahead.

Christian McCaffrey's season is so impressive that his week-to-week outlook is almost boringly good at this point.

CMC is the best play at any position. Yawn.

Purdy may not have to drop back a ton, and when he does, he'll be going against an elite pass defense. But it's hard to overstate just how efficient Purdy has been this year.

If you're looking to beat the Ravens through the air, you want to get the ball out quickly. Ravens opponents are averaging a 39% success rate against them; only Browns opponents rank lower.

On dropbacks lasting over 2.5 seconds, that success rate drops to 31%, the lowest in the league.

On dropbacks lasting 2.5 seconds or less, the Ravens have been more beatable, with a 47% success rate against. That's still the ninth-best mark among defenses, but the Ravens are not a defense that you want to have to improvise against. The move is to beat them through scheme and execution... which is Kyle Shanahan's goal.

The 49ers have an NFL-leading 63% success rate on dropbacks of 2.5 seconds or shorter. The Dolphins are second at just 56%. Beating defenses quickly... is what the 49ers do.

You might assume that those throws tilt disproportionately to Deebo Samuel, given his 7.9 aDOT. That's what I assumed. But they don't. Brandon Aiyuk leads slightly with a 26% TPRR, Samuel is at 25%, CMC is at 21%, and George Kittle is at 20%.

When you think about it, it makes a ton of sense that targets would be spread out... because this is what the 49ers offense looks like when firing on all cylinders. To that point, the 49ers are able to attack downfield quickly. Brandon Aiyuk has a 12.1 aDOT in this sample, and Kittle is at 9.6; both are only slightly more shallow aDOT than their season long marks.

Samuel (3.9 aDOT) looks to be in a more specialized role on these quick dropbacks. But Samuel's after-catch ability is beyond special. He leads all WRs and TEs in ESPN's YAC score – obviously – but the rank doesn't really do it justice.

Two 49ers, two Texans, and Chief make up the top five... weird, it's almost like you can scheme, YAC.

Ultimately, this is a lot of words for... play your 49ers. The Ravens' defense is elite, but the 49ers will give them the toughest test they've faced all year.

Both Samuel and Aiyuk look like low-end WR1s.