Are There Any Rookie WR Values Left?

Back in 2021, I wrote an article for Rotoworld that highlighted the best ball tournament-winning potential of rookie WRs.

Over 2017-2020, we saw four rookie WRs turn in truly sensational seasons.

"Ready for the best part? None of the four rookie sensations - Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin and JuJu Smith-Schuster - were drafted in the top 50 WRs. Rookie wide receivers are almost always cheap, and they can win you your league."

But this article was written in a simpler time when rookie WRs were actually cheap.

This year, two rookies going in the top 20 WRs and seven rookies are going before WR50. All seven rookie WRs are going in the top 80 picks overall.

In this post I'll review how rookie WRs have been hitting, which helps illuminate how advance rates might shift as prices rise.

I'll then dig into the profiles of the rookie WRs who still remain relatively cheap, even in the current WR-heavy environment.

Rookie Route Volume

In 2021, I noted that even rookie hits weren't running a ton of routes per game.

"Since 2017, wide receivers drafted in the top 40 of best ball ADP have averaged 34 routes per game. However, 17 of the 18 rookies to finish top 20 in win rate ran less than 34 routes per game. Only Brandon Aiyuk had an above average role as a rookie. Rookies, even league winning rookies like Justin Jefferson (32 routes per game), Terry McLaurin (32) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (30), have not been high volume options over the course of their rookie seasons."

But starting in 2021, we've seen more examples of rookie WRs running 34+ routes per game.

From 2021-2023, we've had 18 rookie WRs turn in a 16.7%+ advance rate while being drafted at least 10,000 times in Best Ball Mania. 6-of-18 (33%) ran at least 34 routes per game.

Still, rookies aren't great bets for massive volume. If you're looking for ultra-high-end route volume, you're still better off drafting a veteran.

This was also true in 2017-2020:

"Even the “high volume” Aiyuk only ran 36 routes per game, still well below 2020 veteran options with middling results like McLaurin (40), Smith-Schuster (40), Marvin Jones (39), and Michael Gallup (38). It seems clear that even elite rookie wide receiver seasons are not the result of elite volume."

Rookie Role Changes

Rookie roles sometimes increase dramatically over the course of the season. We saw this last year with Rashee Rice and in 2021 with Amon-Ra St. Brown.

This isn't a universal effect, however. And some rookie WRs actually see their route volume tail off as the season goes on.

As Jack Miller showed, the general trend shows increasing rookie production as the season progresses. But it isn't as simple as every rookie earning more playing time.

Of course, these charts show two different things. The first chart shows playing time, and the second chart shows production.

Underpriced Efficiency

Here is where we get to the real value of rookie WRs. More than any other cohort, rookies give us the potential to find star-level efficiency without paying full price.

Of the 18 WRs with above-average advance rates since 2021, seven of them (39%) had YPRRs of 2.00 or higher—the veterans hit that mark at a 35% clip.

And the difference gets dramatic when you move down in ADP.

We've had 12 rookies with above-average advance rates since 2021.

Five of those rookies hit 2+ YPRR—a 42% rate.

We've had 36 veteran WRs with above-average advance rates since 2021.

Three of those veterans hit 2+ YPRR—an 8% rate.

This makes intuitive sense. Once players record a signifcant NFL sample, we have a pretty good sense of how good they are.

With rookies, we often don't have a very accurate idea of how good they'll be. And you can see this by the efficiency of WR hits.

Veteran hits are ultra efficient in the early rounds, then tail off dramatically. As the draft goes on, veteran hits become more likely to look like 2023 Adam Thielen (37 routes/game; 1.59 YPRR) or 2022 Zay Jones (36 routes/game; 1.44 YPRR).

However, rookie hits stay impressively efficient.

Keep in mind that we're looking at hits here. Rookies become less likely to hit, as all picks do, the later you get in the draft. It's not like a random 16th-round rookie is just as likely to be efficient as a top 60 pick. But it's still helpful to understand how these players are hitting.

Rookies give us access to high-end efficiency throughout the draft.

And by the way, the late rounds aren't just held up by Puka Nacua's unreal 2023. Here's the chart if Puka didn't exist.

Over a larger sample, this falloff in the late rounds is more likely than the flat line Puka's season creates. But still, we're talking about a far less dramatic dropoff in efficiency than among the veteran hits.

Understanding the Bet

When targeting rookie WRs in the early rounds, we're betting on finding stars. But we need to understand that we're potentially forgoing veteran stars in the process. And as rookie WR prices increase, this gets increasingly more likely.

Given the extreme value of late season production, it's difficult for me to determine if we've passed the point of efficient pricing. But it seems fair to say that extreme rookie WR pricing will likely have an effect on advance rates at a minimum.

As prices rise, it's unavoidable that we'll run into more Quentin Johnstons, who don't play a ton (29 routes per game), play extremely inefficiently (0.88 YPRR), and blow up best ball rosters (7% advance rate).

We're also going to see more Jaxon Smith-Njigbas who don't play a ton (28 routes per game), play inefficiently (1.32 YPRR), and are a drag on rosters (13% advance rate). May they all score Week 16 TDs.

Rookies are a double-edged sword. We don't know how good they are, which can lead to massive hits as prices drop. But as prices rise, that uncertainty creates risk. Odds are that many WRs in the 2024 class will go down as mediocre pros. And given that we're drafting seven of them in the top 80... it feels pretty likely we're overdrafting a few mediocre (or worse) players.

Again, I'm a bit torn on whether to actually ease off the rookie gas pedal in the early rounds. This is an excellent WR class, and part of the rookie WR inflation is simply the result of a more general price increase at WR.

What I would caution against, though, is viewing these rookie bets purely through the prism of projectable opportunity. Ultimately, we're betting on these players to be much better than the market believes—at the risk of them being much worse.

For example, while Brian Thomas' path to immediate playing time is a good sign, if you want Jaguars routes, wait another 50 picks and draft Gabe Davis. The bet is that Thomas is a star. If he is, you win. But his primary offensive contribution is running clearout routes, you lose.

Lower Prices, Increased Uncertainty

As the draft progresses, every player becomes less likely to be a star. This is somewhat less true at RB, where were can see solid players elevated to fantasy stardom by consolidating backfield opportunities. But at WR, we're more dependent on the real-life talent of these NFL players.

And so, as prices drop, the opportunity to hit on underpriced WR efficiency is enticing. The fact that it could be accompanied by a back-weighted scoring profile is an unfair bonus.

Fortunately, even with elevated rookie pricing, 2024's WR class is so deep that we still have strong rookie WR profiles in the double-digit rounds.

The Rookie WR Tier Break

2024's Underdog rookie WR ADP is quite striking in that we have seven WRs going before pick 80, but then a 50+ pick gap to the WR8 in the class.

And while I'm drafting these top-7 rookies, this gap strikes me as ineffient. Year after year, we're surprised by which rookie WRs are capable of producing right away. This year is unlikely to be any different. Yet the increased pricing of the top options has created a situation where we're we're more confident than ever about which rookie WRs will be good.

With that in mind, there's definitely an argument for avoiding the early rookies. However, given the potential for back-weighted production and weaker veteran counterparts in the same range of the draft—with all WRs being more expensive this year—I actually view this group favorably. The pricing is jarring, but it's a strong WR class, and the market is increasingly making us pay to play the format correctly.

Still, the fact that we still have cheap rookie WRs in this environment strikes me as a big opportunity. In 2021, it was clear that cheap rookie WRs were winning best ball tournaments. That hasn't changed in the three seasons since. Let's find this year's tournament winners.

Below are mini-profiles on nine late-round rookie WRs.