Ashton Jeanty, Generational. Rookie RBs—Tiers 1-3
This rookie RB class is one of the strongest parts of the 2025 class. That's not even a fantasy take. The consensus among NFL evaluators is that these RBs are one of the best elements of entire 2025 draft class. Obviously, that's extremely promising for those of us who only draft four positions.
In my view, the numbers mostly back up the idea that this is a very promising class. To help visualize this, I've stripped draft capital out of my RB model and charted the raw "Legend index" vs. draft capital.
Players above the line have the types of profiles we can expect to have upside that goes beyond draft capital and situation. Players below the line can be expected to be more fragile if their expected draft capital doesn't materialize or if they land in an unfavorable situation.
As you can see, there's a lot to like about this class.
For one, Ashton Jeanty is an elite RB prospect—one of the best we've ever seen.
Like with Bijan Robinson in the 2023 class, simply having one prospect of that caliber makes it a good RB class.
But there's also depth in this class.
The tricky part is that I think that depth is slightly overstated, especially to the extent that other RBs in the class are compared to Jeanty—who I believe is clearly several tiers ahead of the rest of the group.
After Jeanty, we're looking at a group of four RBs who look like great bets to go before Day 3, but who are at least a little more draft capital and landing spot dependent that is generally understood. This isn't necessarily a huge deal... because these guys are expected to be drafted highly, and there are a lot of strong landing spots available.
But it's a reason to pay close attention to draft buzz. There's a big difference between a prospect profile like TreVeyon Henderson's when we're talking about early Round 2 capital vs. mid-Round 3 capital. The same goes for Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Williams.
Omarion Hampton's profile looks a bit more robust. If he goes Round 2 and lands as the Bears' Day 1 starter, I'm not sweating that his Round 1 hype fell flat. But his profile will still look much safter if he can secure a good landing spot with top 50 captial.
As far as Henderson, Judkins, and Johnson go, I'm largely riding the wave of their expected draft capital. For example, as Judkins' draft prospects have picked up steam, I've moved him up the ranks. As Kaleb Williams' stock has cooled a bit, I've cooled as well.
After the draft, I'll also be willing to shift these backs meaningfully on landing spot specifics.
That's not how I'm handling Ashton Jeanty. He could go 71 to the Saints and in Superflex drafts I'd still be happy to take him early 1st. Not that he'd ever fall that far... but that's kind of the point.
When we get down closer to pick 100 in projected NFL draft capital, we find more profiles that I'm willing to swim against the draft capital current for. And those profiles are where I buy into the idea that this class is kind of loaded. To be clear, it's loaded with high-quality bets. Many of these lower draft capital bets will not work out. But it looks like a group that should produce several big hits from outside the top two rounds.
We also have several players with enough expected draft capital to overcome imperfect profiles.
And there is one RB who has a rare combination of upside and opportunity.
You can't ask for much more out of a running back class.
Let's start at the top.
(Note - there were some discrepancies between the 10-yard splits on RAS.football and the NFL's Combine tracker. In those cases, I went with the NFL's number).
Tier 1 - Legendary
Ashton Jeanty
At a Glance
Ashton Jeanty is an elite tackle-breaker with breakaway ability. He's also a high-end receiving back, built like an NFL feature back. Jeanty is expected to be drafted in the early-mid 1st round. He's one of the best RB prospects in recent history.
Positive Indicators
Let's start with the tackle-breaking. Jeanty is coming off an unreal elusive rating of 216. Among RBs with 200+ carries, it's the highest mark on record. Travis Etienne is the only other RB over 200.
And it wasn't just his 2024 season; Jeanty was an elite tackle-breaker throughout his career. Among RBs with 200+ career attempts, he has the highest career elusive rating on record.
Breaking tackles at a high per-carry rate is cool, but in fantasy, we strongly prefer tackle-breaking to be paired with carry volume. Jeanty showed that ability in spades.
In the elusive rating formula, I've replaced touches with games, creating what I call elusiveness per game. Instead of measuring tackle-breaking and yards after contact per touch, we're now rewarding RBs who were elusive on big per-game workloads.
Jeanty has the highest mark in elusiveness per game on record.
Here are the four FBS RBs directly behind him:
- Bijan Robinson
- Todd Gurley
- Jonathan Taylor
- Melvin Gordon
Turns out... breaking a ton of tackles while also handling a ton of carries is pretty bullish.
But Jeanty isn't just a tackle-breaking workhorse. He's a true home run threat.
Jeanty's 47% breakaway percentage is a 79th percentile mark. More importantly, he was able to deliver breakaway yards at a high rate per game. His 56 breakaway yards per game is a 95th-percentile showing and is tied with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. And Jeanty was able to pair explosion with consistency, with a strong 47% success rate.
Jeanty's playmaking isn't limited to the running game, either. He averaged a healthy 14 routes per game over his career, with a sub-elite but still impressive 1.59 YPRR.
At 5-foot-9, 211 pounds, Jeanty isn't big, but he's compact enough to pack a punch. And he's big enough to stay on the field for all three downs.
That's one of the reasons Boise State didn't take him off the field.
Jeanty posted a peak backfield dominator rating of 79% with a career mark of 66%. Those are better numbers than Bijan Robinson (75%; 61%) and Dalvin Cook (73%; 57%) and comparable to Leonard Fournette (82%; 57%).
As you would expect, the combination of elite tackle-breaking, breakaway ability, high-end receiving ability, and an elite workload... led to a boatload of production.
Jeanty broke out for 1,347 rushing yards and 569 receiving yards in 2023, with 19 TDs. He then followed that up with an FBS-leading 2,601 rushing yards, 138 receiving yards, and 30 TDs in 2024.
Unbelievably, Jeanty didn't turn 21 until December. Most of that production was as a 19 and 20-year-old. Jeanty then opted to forgo his final year of eligibility and declare for the NFL draft. He's a mega-lock to go Round 1. The NFL is fully behind him as a difference-making RB.
Red Flags
The truth is... Jeanty doesn't have any major red flags in his profile. But we can pick a couple of nits.
First, he fell off as a receiver in 2024, dropping from 569 receiving yards in 2023 to just 138 last year. His YPRR also dropped from an elite 3.19 to a very poor 0.54.
If his NFL team wants to load him up with 350+ carries and isn't really interested in throwing to him, there's a very successful template to follow. That template is not what we want to see in PPR leagues.
But Jeanty also has a season with 220 carries, 40+ receptions, and 3+ YPRR. That's an extremely encouraging sign if he lands with a team that wants him to use him in more of a Breece Hall-style role.
So, the red flag isn't that Jeanty can't be a receiving presence; he clearly can. The minor red flag is that he might be such a good runner that his team doesn't utilize him as much as we'd like in the passing game.
Jeanty's size is also a minor red flag. At 211 pounds, it's possible he ends up losing some short-yarage work. I doubt it, but some teams really prefer a big body in short yardage.
However, Jeanty's draft capital protects him here. If a team isn't comfortable fully leaning on him as a runner, they probably have big plans for him as a receiver. Otherwise, why on earth are you taking him in the early-mid 1st round?
The other minor red flag here is that Jeanty didn't work out at the Combine. So, we don't know how his timed athleticism. But do we have real questions about his football athleticism? I don't think we do.
Per ESPN, "he was clocked at over 22 MPH" on a 2024 run. And per Reel Analytics, he posted the top speed among FBS RBs in five different weeks last year—the most of any RB. They have him hitting between 20.9 and 21.7 MPH six different times.
Here are the runs:
- Week 2: 21.2 MPH
- Week 5: 21.1 MPH
- Week 6: 21.7 MPH
- Week 7: 20.9 PMH
- Week 13: 21.5 MPH
- Conference Championship: 21.5 MPH
Even if we take these MPH measurements as nothing more than an extension of the eye test, Jeanty is clearly fast. Maybe he's not in the 4.3s, but his speed is more than sufficient. His lack of testing is one of the smallest leaps of faith an RB prospect has ever asked us to make.
Statistical Comps
- Melvin Gordon
- Travis Etienne
- Bijan Robinson
- Breece Hall
- Dalvin Cook
- Todd Gurley
Fantasy Outlook
Jeanty has an extremely versatile skill set, excelling in a variety of areas. That versatility raises his floor. If he lands in an imperfect situation, he can still succeed.
If a team leans on him primarily as a Dalvin Cook-style runner, he's explosive enough to deliver high-end fantasy value without a big receiving role. If a team surprisingly installs him in a Jahmyr Gibbs role, he's demonstrated the playmaking and elusiveness to become a PPR star.
But Jeanty also profiles as a back who can combine those archetypes, making him a truly legendary prospect.
Best Ball Recommendation
Jeanty is a priority target in Round 2. Given his potential landing spots, he's likely to be a late Round 1 pick this summer. I expect to be comfortable taking him there.
Superflex Rookie Draft Grade
Clear cut 1.01.
