Dear Travis Hunter, Please Play WR. 2025 Rookie WRs—Tiers 1-2

Since 2020, we've been blessed with a series of very strong WR classes. And many of those impressive prospects have gone on to deliver on their promising profiles.

Of course, not every class was as strong as 2020, which included Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins, among others. But from 2020-24, per my model, we've averaged 5.2 WRs worth at least a late 1st round rookie pick.

This year's class isn't nearly as strong. Depending on how the draft goes, it's very possible that we're looking at just two wide receivers who rated as late-1st or better. And one of those wide receivers might be a cornerback.

But there's more upside in the top of this class than it tends to get credit for.

Sure, this year's prospect profiles have some genuine warts. Like, seriously, you're gonna want to get that looked at. However, some of the knocks on this year's class are more about their real life NFL roles than their ability to generate fantasy points if set up for success.

And at the very least, we can be thankful that the best WR prospect in the class is trending toward actually playing WR.

Tier 1 - Proven Target Earners

Travis Hunter

At a Glance

Is Travis Hunter a wide receiver? I don't know. But if he is, he's the best WR prospect in this year's class.

Positive Indicators

Travis Hunter was the No. 1 recruit in the nation and was widely expected to attend Florida State but "spurned" the Power 5 program to join Deion Sanders at Jackson State.

That decision worked out quite nicely. Hunter followed Sanders to Colorado and is coming off a Heisman-winning campaign where he went 96/1,258/15 in 2024, leading the Big 12 in both receptions and receiving TDs and accounting for 35% of Colorado's passing offense... while also playing cornerback at an elite level.

Hunter turned in that performance as a true junior. He will be just 21 years old on draft night. The term generational prospect gets thrown around, but it absolutely applies here.

Of course... we don't get fantasy points for Hunter shutting down opposing WRs. Some of what makes him a generational real life prospect doesn't actually translate to his fantasy football profile. But it almost goes without saying that his ability excel at two high-value positions simultaneously is an extremely positive sign for his natural ability, football IQ, work ethic, stamina, all of it.

Think about it, for WRs, we look at things like rushing production or return game ability as additional measures of football athleticism. I'm pretty sure being a shutdown corner would show up as a bull signal in the models... if anyone other than Hunter was able to pull this combo off.

But, enough about his two-way ability. Let's dive into Hunter's WR skills. Because even as a pure WR, Hunter is very impressive.

Hunter is 6-foot, but only 188 pounds. With his slight frame, you might assume he was a slot WR in college, but he played almost entirely outside in 2024, with just 6% of his snaps coming from the slot. In 2023, Hunter played 64% of his snaps in the slot, and he was at 30% as a freshman at Jackson State. So it's not like he hasn't been utilized out of the slot. But his most impressive season was as a true outside WR. And in conjunction with that season, his earlier slot usage looks bullish. This is a player who you can move around the formation.

Hunter also showed impressive YAC ability on short-area targets. And he excelled at the catch point both overall and on deep targts.

But Hunter doesn't need to be schemed touches, and he doesn't need a QB willing to chuck it up to him; he wins by getting open on traditional routes.

Hunter was extremely productive in the short area of the field in college and saw a very low percentage of contested targets, signaling that he's able to separate easily underneath.

That's backed up by Matt Harmon's Reception Perception profile, which is extremely bullish on Hunter.

Hunter was also impressively productive. His 96/1,258/15 2024 receiving line was good for a 30% yardage share and a 35% dominator rating. He also turned in impressive efficiency, with 2.62 yards per team attempt and 2.51 yards per route run.

To be fair, these numbers aren't what we'd typically expect for a WR who is a mortal lock to go top 5 in the NFL draft. As I discussed with JJ Zachariason, these numbers are good but not otherwordly.

However, Hunter does look a bit stronger through the lens of Yards per Play rather than team attempt. Here we're adjusting for the fact that the Colorado offense was built around the passing game. Hunter's 2024 season compares quite favorably to both this year's and last year's Round 1 WRs from a per-play perspective.

Red Flags

Hunter's biggest red flag for our purposes, is that he might literally not be a WR. In fact, early in the pre-draft process, he appeared more likely to play full-time CB than full-time WR. In some ways, this makes more sense. Hunter wants to play both ways, but his NFL team is unlikely to sign off on a full-time two-way role. And it's easier to imagine him operating as a CB with a subpackage of WR snaps than vise versa.

However, the current draft buzz is that the Browns are zeroing in on Hunter at No. 2. And Andrew Berry has said that he sees Hunter as a WR first.

The Giants are more of a wildcard at No. 3, but given their need to show more life on offense, it's very possible Hunter is a WR there as well. And if he falls to the Patriots, it's hard to imagine him being anything other than a full-time wideout.

So, things are looking rosier as we head into the draft, but there's still a lot of uncertainty here. Even taking Andrew Berry's comments at face value, it's hard to know if "WR first" means he's a full-time WR or if it just means he'll play more on offense than on defense. And I don't have a lot of confidence in how the Giants would deploy him if Hunter falls to No. 3. And he's unlikely to actually make it to the Patriots at No. 4.

We should also consider the fact we have a pretty high bar for what counts as Hunter playing WR. We need ceiling. And to hit his fantasy ceiling, we'd really like to see Hunter at at least 80% route participation, if not 90%+. If he's more in the 60-70% range, he'll need astronomical TPRR and YPRR numbers to be a fantasy difference-maker.

And although Hunter's WR profile is very strong, it's not perfect.

He only has one breakout season and wasn't overly impressive from a YPTA or YPRR perspective.

He also wasn't a great YAC producer on intermediate or deep targets. He was a productive yards producer in those areas, but after the catch, he was far less impressive than on shallow targets. Jerry Jeudy was another high-level college route runner who did most of his YAC damage on short targets. Jeudy isn't exactly a bust, but he hasn't lived up to his pre-draft hype, either. Combined with Hunter's smaller build, his lack of downfield YAC is a minor red flag for his NFL ceiling.

Statistical Comps

• Garrett Wilson
• Rashod Bateman
• Henry Ruggs
• Jerry Jeudy

Fantasy Outlook

When the pre-draft process kicked off, I was hearing most evaluators talk about Hunter as a cornerback, who might add a bit on offense. There wasn't much buzz that he'd be a full-time WR.

Over time, we've seen more evaluators go on the record that they think he's a better WR than CB. It's far from a settled debate, but it's more of a true debate than I was worried it was in January.

Ultimately, the only evaluators that really matter here are on the team that drafts Hunter. And the buzz that the Browns both see him as a WR first and are honing in on him as the No. 2 pick is quite bullish.

Hunter has been adamant that he wants to play both ways, and even on the Browns I don't expect him to play a traditional full-time WR role as a rookie. But it seems clear that we have momentum toward a meaningful offensive role. And with a WR prospect this talented, I'm willing to accept risk around what exactly that role looks like.

In best ball, Hunter has been a priority for me in recent drafts—even as he rises in ADP. If we knew for a fact that he was a full-time WR, we're talking about an Underdog 4th rounder. It makes sense for the market to provide a discount on that price... because his role is uncertain. But the current discount is still substantial enough for me to take the risk.

In dynasty, Hunter is even trickier. In dynasty, risky bets don't get wiped away after the year. We have to live with the consequences of draft day mistakes for the life of the league. And drafting a CB with an early 1st round rookie pick is a mistake that'll stick with you. But Hunter also has potential to be a Garrett Wilson-type hit, where it becomes immediately clear that he was going far too late in rookie drafts.

I currently have him ranked 1.05 but I'd have him 1.02 if we knew he was playing full-time WR. To some extent, it comes down to risk tolerance.

Best Ball Recommendation

Priority target.

Superflex Rookie Draft Grade

Mid 1st round.

Tetairoa McMillan

At a Glance

Tetairoa McMillan profiles as a big possession WR with some YAC ability. That archetype is harder to get excited about than if he was the second coming of Mike Evans—aka. an oversized deep threat. But with the potential to be a consistent target earner as a traditional X receiver, McMillan could be productive in a variety of offenses. However, he may need to find the right QB or offense to unlock a high-end ceiling.

Positive Indicators

As a true freshman at Arizona, McMillan turned in a 39/702/8 receiving line for a 25% dominator rating. It was an impressive beginning to his career, but he took his game to another level in 2023 with a 90/1,402/10 receiving line for a 31% dominator rating.

In 2024, McMillan led the Big 12 with 1,319 receiving yards, as part of an 84/1,319/8 receiving line. His 44% dominator rating is a truly elite mark and contributes to a 32% career dominator rating and a 32% career yardage share—both elite for a three-year player.

McMillan was very efficient in his final two seasons at Arizona as well, turning in 3.02 YPTA in both seasons, with a 2.79 YPRR in 2023 and 2.87 in 2024.

McMillan looks even more impressive through the lens of yards per team play, crediting him for not just being the engine of the passing offense but of the entire offense.

For a player whose team relied so heavily on him, McMillan's production was remarkably traditional. Just 4% of his career yards were on behind the line of scrimmage targets. He's not a gadget player. Instead, he profiles as a consistent target earner, especially on intermediate targets.

McMilllan isn't a catch-and-fall-down WR, either. He was very impressive after the catch on short and intermediate targets. The frequent comparisons to Drake London make sense in this regard.

As we'll get to, McMillan has some separation concerns. But these are somewhat mitigated by his 6-foot-4, 219-pound frame and his massive 10-inch hands. To hit a high-end NFL ceiling, McMillan will likely need a QB willing to trust him in tight windows. But he's built for that style of play.

Red Flags

McMillan played at a smaller program, but he wasn't overlooked entering college. He was a top 5 WR recruit but opted to play for Arizona, where his best friend Noah Fifita had committed to play QB. McMillan then opted to stay at Arizona despite NIL opportunities in the transfer portal.

So it's not like McMillan's success caught college programs off guard, or that there wasn't interest in him throughout his career.

But... I'm crediting him for a lot of production and efficiency. And that all came against weaker competition than we typically see from high-end WR prospects.

McMillan also has some red flags regarding how his production was generated.

The biggest concern is that McMillan doesn't look like a great separator. McMillan had 25% of his career targets contested, which is a red flag. He also had 38% of his deep targets contested, with a weak 39% deep contested catch rate.

McMillan sometimes gets compared to Mike Evans. He's not that type of player. Instead, McMillan is an intermediate producer. He's a possession WR with juice. But even as a possession WR, he might need a QB who trusts him regardless of how "open" he is.

McMillan's profile is further complicated by the fact that he didn't test at the Combine and only ran at his Pro Day. We don't have any jumps for McMillan... which isn't great for a player who's already overly reliant on jump-ball situations.

Statistical Comps

• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Drake London
• Treylon Burks
• Tee Higgins

Fantasy Outlook

McMillan is a somewhat polarizing player, and I think I get why. If you go in expecting Mike Evans, you're going to be disappointed. Frankly, even if you go in expecting Tee Higgins, you'll probably be underwhelmed. Stylistically, he doesn't profile as a dominant deep WR or even as a dominant contested catch player.

Matt Harmon notes similarities to Michael Thomas and a game that could work well out of the slot, even if he primarily plays X. Statistically, he also comps to JuJu Smith-Schuster. We're getting hints of a player who is more of an underneath and intermediate target earner than a downfield playmaker.

From a real life perspective, that's a bit less exciting. From a fantasy perspective, it makes McMillan more situation-dependent. He's not the type of Round 1 WR prospect likely to transform any offense he steps foot into.

Instead, McMillan is a smooth operator in the short-intermediate area of the field, who can keep the chains moving. And if paired with a high-volume QB willing to trust his targets, he could have a big-time NFL impact.

Currently, McMillan looks unlikely to be drafted in the top 10, which makes Dallas at 12 a likely landing spot. That fit looks ideal for his immediate outlook. Long-term he'd be unlikely to be the No. 1 there, but he could operate as a high-volume No. 2. The Juju to CeeDee Lamb's Antonio Brown, if you will.

However, the Cowboys may ultimately consider Matthew Golden a better complement to Lamb or opt to draft another position entirely. And if the Cowboys pass, it's possible we're looking at a fall into the 20s for McMillan, where there are some concerning landing spots from a passing volume perspective. I've seen him mocked to the Ravens more than once, for example.

But, while I think it's helpful to think through McMillan's style of play, I don't want to get lost in the stylistic weeds. McMillan was highly productive and efficient as a three-year player and wins in a way that should translate to the NFL game, even if it's not the most exciting style of play. Like every rookie, there's a range of outcomes for what happens next. But I think McMillan offers a range tilted strongly to the upside.

Best Ball Recommendation

Target.

Superflex Rookie Draft Grade

Mid 1st round.

Tier 2 - Ceiling vs. Floor

Emeka Egbuka

At a Glance

Well, everyone knows that Emeka Egbuka doesn't have a ceiling. What this writeup presupposes is... maybe he does?