Don't Sleep on Jaylin Noel. Rookie WRs—Tiers 3-5
I'm getting this article out later than I was hoping... which means I've adjusted the best ball recommendations to account for where I was on these players before the draft and where I expect (or in some cases hope) to be on them after the draft.
Let's dive in.
Tier 3 - Potential NFL Starters
Jayden Higgins
At a Glance
Jayden Higgins is a four-year WR, but one who had serious competition for targets, playing alongside Jaylin Noel for the last two seasons. He's likely to be drafted in Round 2, probably ahead of Noel. Higgins can move around the formation, but his ability to play outside looks to be part of the draw for the NFL. Higgins has the ability to win deep, but is primarily a shallow-intermediate target, with some YAC upside.
Positive Indicators
Higgins joined Iowa State in 2023 and immediately led the team in receiving yards, with a 53/983/6 receiving line, for a 31% yardage share and a 28% dominator rating.
Higgins took things to another level in 2024, with an 87/1,183/9 receiving line that was good for a 36% yardage share and a 38% dominator rating.
He was impressively efficient in both seasons, with a 2.58 yards per team attempt and 3.00 yards per route run in 2023 and marks of 2.71 and 2.66 in 2024.
And Higgins was able to achieve this success while playing alongside Jaylin Noel, who looks likely to be selected on Day 2 of the draft. His target competition was nowhere near what Emeka Egbuka dealt with, but it's still impressive that he was able to lead Iowa State in total receiving yards over the last two years while competing with another high-level WR.
Higgins also has a clear calling card as a short and intermediate producer on the outside. He profiles as a big possession WR who can operate as a traditional X receiver.
At 6-foot-4, 214 pounds, Higgins has the size for a traditional X role. He also brings the requisite athleticism.
Red Flags
Higgins was productive and efficient at Iowa State, but he joined the program when he was already a true junior. Higgins spent his first two seasons at Eastern Kentucky, an FCS program. Given what he went on to do at Iowa State, you might assume he dominated the FCS... but he didn't.
He peaked with just a 19% yardage share and 1.88 YPRR in 2022. Considering the level of competition, my eyebrows are raised.
Then, after an admittedly impressive 2023, he opted to return to school for his senior season. That season is why we're talking about him now. And historically, WRs who have required a fourth or fifth college season to get on the NFL's radar have come with major bust risk.
And Higgins didn't even fully stand out in 2024. Jaylin Noel led Iowa State in receiving yards last year, with 1,194 to Higgins' 1,183. Noel is also live to be selected before Higgins in the draft. And while Noel's draft capital looks solid, he's not an amazing prospect. He's the cover boy of this article; I clearly like him. But he's far from a bulletproof prospect.
Right now, it looks like Higgins had impressive target competition. But a few years from now, the idea that these two were at all similar to A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf competing for targets could seem very silly. It could be a lot closer to Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Per Matt Harmon, Higgins also has some serious route-running red flags.
In his analysis, Harmon notes similarities to Keon Coleman, viewing both as players who would be better suited for big slot roles.
That's not great... since the NFL seems interested in Higgins partly for his ability to play outside in a traditional role.
However, I will note that Higgins' production was pretty different than Coleman's, and in my opinion, far less concerning.
Here's Higgins' chart again.
And here's Coleman's.
As you can see, Coleman struggled to produce in the intermediate areas and had a very high contested target rate on deep targets. Meanwhile, Higgins excelled on the intermediate targets, and his deep separation is significantly less concerning.
However, we should also acknowledge that Higgins' deep profile is pretty underwhelming, and he was very much not a manufactured touch player, despite his athleticism. And so, if slotted into a traditional outside role – as expected – we really need Higgins' route running to be sufficient.
We have some conflicting evidence on that question. But it's clear that if Higgins can't consistently earn short and intermediate targets, he could be in real trouble. At that point, we'd likely need him to kick into the slot to avoid becoming a non-fantasy-relevant starter, like Michael Wilson or Alec Pierce.
Statistical Comps
- Courtland Sutton
- Terrace Marshall
- Denzel Mims
- Alec Pierce
Fantasy Outlook
Higgins has been a big pre-draft riser, flipping WRs like Tre Harris and Elic Ayomanor in expected draft capital. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go ahead of Luther Burden in the draft.
If he binks a good landing spot in Round 2, Higgins has the potential to work his way up into the 8th or 9th round summer best ball drafts.
But... after finishing my deep dive into his profile, I'm less bullish than before. For me, it's the lack of production and efficiency at Eastern Kentucky that make me squemish. This puts a ton of weight on his junior campaign as his only impressive underclassman season. And, unfortunately, that season wasn't impressive enough to secure Day 2 draft capital. Otherwise, he'd have been in last year's draft.
Instead, Higgins needed his senior season to secure strong draft capital. That's a low-floor setup.
Higgins also has a low floor as an outside possession WR who might not be able to consistently earn targets on the outside.
In dynasty, I'll likely be underweight on Higgins. There's a ton of interesting RBs in this class, as well as some QBs, like Jaxson Dart, who could rise significantly in value entering 2026. Given his draft capital, Higgins is likely to go in rookie drafts alongside players with better ranges of outcomes.
Best Ball Recommendation
Higgins was a clear target for much of the pre-draft period, as the market was slow to bake in his expected draft position. We were ahead of his ADP in the LegUp Big Board rankings until near the end of the tournament, when some of his red flags started to loom a little larger at an elevated price. I ended up at 19% exposure.
Post-draft, Higgins is someone I'm comfortable occasionally mixing in as an 8th or 9th round pick, but is unlikely to be a true target at that price. However, if he stays in the double-digit rounds due to landing spot concerns, I'll be happy to bet on the Round 2 draft capital again.
Superflex Rookie Draft Grade
2nd round.
Tre Harris
At a Glance
Tre Harris is a big outside WR who with strong jump ball skills. He's also an impressive YAC producer despite not seeing a ton of schemed targets. However, his ability to separate downfield is a major concern, as is his 5th-year breakout.
Positive Indicators
Harris began his career at Louisiana Tech and emerged in his third season there with a 66/954/10 receiving line that was good for a 30% yardage share and a 35% dominator rating.
He then transferred to Ole Miss and put together two very strong seasons.
In 2023, Harris went 54/985/8 for a 31% yardage share and 31% dominator rating. And he saved his best for last, putting together a 61/1,063/7 receiving line in 2024, with a 37% yardage share and 39% dominator rating.
Over his five-year career, Harris turned in a 29% yardage share and a 30% dominator rating. Even for a 5th-year player, those are impressive numbers.
Harris was also extremely efficient at Ole Miss. In 2023, he posted 2.90 YPTA and 3.17 YPRR. But those numbers pale in comparison to what he did in 2024, when he hit 3.78 YPTA and 5.12 YPRR.
Let's spend a bit more time on Harris' final season YPRR, because it's absurd. Among all players with 70+ targets, Harris leads the FBS in YPRR.
Sorry, that wasn't clear. He didn't lead the FBS in 2024... he had the highest mark since at least 2014.
Remember DeVonta Smith's scorched-earth 2020 Heisman season? 4.39 YPRR, not even close. How about in the 2024 and 2020 WR classes (the best classes since 2014)? CeeDee Lamb led the 2020 class with 3.99 YPRR; Malik Nabers led 2024 with 3.64. Even Amari Cooper, the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson, hit just 3.99 YPRR.
So, yea. 5.12 YPRR is pretty nuts.
As we'll get to, Harris' YPRR excellence is diminished by the fact that it took him until his 5th season to deliver it. However, it's not like Harris wasn't efficient before 2024. His 3.17 YPRR in his first season at Ole Miss is also very impressive. And as an underclassman, he averaged 2.28 YPRR. Among the WRs likely to go Day 1 or 2, he trails only Emeka Egbuka (2.65), Travis Hunter (2.42), Tetairoa McMillan (2.37), and Luther Burden (2.32) in YPRR across their first three seasons after high school. Harris was amazing as a 5th-year senior, but he was an impressive WR throughout his entire career.
Harris is also built like an NFL outside WR, with the leaping ability to match. Harris' speed isn't great, but it's sufficient by WR standards.
Harris' leaping ability is important because he relies on his physicality at the catch point. He was impressive on contested catches both overall and on deep targets.
Harris is also surprisingly effective after the catch, delivering YAC production on short, intermediate, and deep targets. He played in a very effective scheme, which helped him. But Harris wasn't schemed targets in the sense we usually mean. He wasn't a gadget player, yet still finished WR20 in FBS YAC last season.
Red Flags
In comparing Harris' efficiency to WRs like Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper, I was leaving out some crucial context. Harris turned in an insane YPRR in his fifth year since graduating from high school. In Amari Cooper's fifth year since graduating from high school, he was finishing up his second 1,000-yard season in the NFL. Likewise, CeeDee Lamb was coming off a 79/1,102/6 regular season with the Cowboys. Malik Nabers is only just entering his fifth season since graduating from high school. Even DeVonta Smith, who didn't declare early, had a 64/916/5 regular season line with the Eagles on his resume by this point.
Part of the reason that Harris' 5.12 YPRR mark hasn't been repeated in the college ranks... is that it kind of shouldn't happen. If a WR is good enough to put in that kind of performance up against college competition, they're almost always plucked away by the NFL before they can reach that level of dominance.
Moreover, even after that season, Harris is still looking like an underdog for top 50 draft capital. He looks like a lock for Day 2, but it wouldn't be surprising – and maybe it's even expected? – for him to fall to Round 3.
Clearly, the NFL is seeing something it doesn't love, beyond Harris' impressive production and efficiency.
I think I know what that something is. Harris struggles to separate.
Harris' contested target rate is very high, both overall and on deep targets.
In college, Harris was a big outside WR. But he's only 205 pounds. He's not exactly Brandon Marshall (who played at 230). Sure, in the modern NFL, players like DeAndre Hopkins (212 pounds) count as big outside WRs. But even compared to a Hopkins or Alshon Jeffery (216), Harris is giving up weight. This matters because his production profile already raises red flags that he was beating up on inferior competition. We then add to that a style of play that literally relies on bully ball by a player who... probably isn't going to effectively bully NFL corners.
Statistical Comps
- Alec Pierce
- Denzel Mims
- D.J. Chark
- Nico Collins
Fantasy Outlook
Harris looks like a safe bet for Day 2 capital and should find a role as an X receiver. His statistical comps include massive hits like Nico Collins, flash in the pans like D.J. Chark, fantasy busts like Alec Pierce, and real-life busts like Denzel Mims. There's a wide range of outcomes here.
In my opinion, Harris' lack of draft buzz is as concerning as anything else in his profile. How do you turn in the most efficient high-volume WR season on record and still not generate top-50 draft pick interest?
One way, I guess, is to play for Lane Kiffin with a Round 1 (or at least early Round 2) QB prospect.
But when looking at Harris' profile, it's hard not to feel like the NFL is overlooking him. Harris was genuinely impressive after the catch and excellent at the catch point. He fits within a boom/bust NFL archetype, but one that has still delivered some big hits recently, such as Nico Collins, a Round 3 upperclassman.
Then again, even when we allow ourselves to dream on Harris' upside, it requires us to overlook that some of his productive comps (like Chark and Collins) weren't very fantasy relevant as rookies.
Harris is very likely to play outside in a traditional role, and he isn't a burner, and he doesn't separate very well. So we're unlikely to get easy targets, splash plays, or high target volume out of the gate. However, if Harris can hold down a starting role and build trust with his coaches and QB, his after-the-catch ability could become increasingly relevant.
Best Ball Recommendation
When pre-draft contests began, Harris was going ahead of Matthew Golden. Fantasy players were significantly overpaying for a profile that the NFL just doesn't appear to be that into.
Harris fell significantly from there, but until late in the tournament, I didn't think he'd fallen enough. Earlier this month, he was still going ahead of Jayden Higgins, who is a strong favorite to go ahead of him in the draft, potentially by more than a full round.
However, I probably became too bearish on Harris in the end. With an ADP of 140-ish, he was a reasonable target and is a player I wish I had more of at that price. I ended up at 5% exposure.
Looking ahead, I'm comfortable with Harris as an early double-digit round pick with Round 2 capital. And he's a solid premium dart throw if he goes Round 3.
Superflex Rookie Draft Grade
2nd round.
Jaylin Noel
At a Glance
Noel is a slot WR who can win both short and deep. He's a four-year WR but was productive despite playing alongside Jayden Higgins, who is likely to go Round 2, which is where I expect Noel to go as well.
Positive Indicators
Noel broke out at a true junior, with a 66/820/7 receiving line that was good for a 28% yardage share and 30% dominator rating. He then followed that up with an 81/1,194/8 receiving line, for a 33% yardage share and 33% dominator rating. And Noel was productive alongside Jayden Higgins in both seasons. Higgins looks like a very strong bet for Round 2 draft capital.
Noel was also solidly efficient, with 2.30 YPTA and 2.55 YPRR in 2023 and 2.53 YPTA and 2.62 YPRR in 2024.
Noel's production also looks pretty promising in terms of how it may translate to the NFL game. Noel was a strong YAC producer at Iowa State. But he wasn't especially dependent on behind-the-line-of-scrimmage targets. Instead, he was extremely effective in the short area, while also adding YAC on intermediate and deep targets.
Noel also had very low contested target rates, both overall and on deep targets. This is likely driven in part by his very high slot usage. However, per Matt Harmon, Noel ranks third-best in success rate vs. man and fifth-best in success rate vs. zone in this year's class. Harmon also notes that Noel "obliterates man coverage and runs routes in the deep and intermediate sections of the field" and that Noel "will rip through the heart of the defense against zone on deeper patterns." This is a player who we can expect to win by getting open on NFL staple routes.
Noel is also more than athletic enough to operate as an explosive downfield threat.
Noel's impressive Combine looks to have cemented him as a Day 2 pick, and very likely a Round 2 pick.
Red Flags
Noel was impressively productive as a junior at Iowa State, but like his teammate Jayden Higgins, Noel returned for his senior season. That season is what likely secured him Day 2 draft capital, which, historically, has been a red flag.
Noel's production also looks somewhat concerning from some angles. It's definitely not fair to call Noel a gadget player. I expect him to win on real routes at the next level. But... how deep will those routes be?
As an underclassman at Iowa State, Noel averaged just a 6.2 aDOT, with slot rates of 73%, 81%, and 67% in those three years. Noel was impressive after the catch in those seasons, but in part because of a very shallow target profile. He turned in just 7.2 yards per target.
Then, in 2024, Noel's role expanded a bit. His aDOT jumped to 12.2, and his YPT jumped to 10.0. However, Noel retained heavy slot usage, with a 70% snap rate in the slot. So it's not clear that Noel was able to level up to an NFL-style deep threat.
Noel is likely to play in the slot in the NFL, with most of his production driven by underneath targets. As a result, he could depend on high passing volume for production.
Statistical Comps
- Rashee Rice
- Zay Jones
- Jayden Reed
- Parris Campbell
Fantasy Outlook
Ultimately, Noel's most likely NFL fit looks to be a speed slot type, but one who actually gets open.
In some ways, Noel looks like a lower ceiling bet and like a fairly low floor bet. If you squint, there's a bit of Jalin Hyatt here.
However, Noel looks like much more of a traditional WR than Hyatt ever was at Tennessee. And in the right offensive environment, Noel could be pretty damn fun. Target-earning slots can actually have a pretty high fantasy ceiling, as Rashee Rice, Noel's closest comp, has demonstrated.
As a four-year WR who is probably slot limited, Noel's not exactly a slam-dunk bet. But he's a great dart throw.
Best Ball Recommendation
Noel has been a clear-cut target since the Combine, which has been reflected in our rankings. I ended up at 21% exposure.
Noel still has quite a bit of potential for upward movement. Post-draft, we could easily see Noel in the Round 11-12 range, and in the right landing spot, he could crack single digits. Simply put, the pre-draft market never fully reacted to his bullish expected draft capital momentum. If he secures Round 2 draft capital and a solid landing spot, he will be a priorty target before ADP corrects.
Superflex Rookie Draft Grade
2nd Round.
