Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 1)
Last week, I jumped on the High Stakes Fantasy Football Show with Eric Balkman. Toward the end of the show, he asked if the dead zone had been replaced with a running back sweet spot, or as he called it, "a lush paradise of running backs."
In other words... has the unforgiving landscape of the RB Dead Zone landscape finally given way to the RB Oasis?
We're gonna spend the week looking into it. This post kicks off a 4-part series of RB profiles in Rounds 7-10.
Daniel Racz will close out the week with his thoughts on whether 2024 offers an RB Oasis or an RB Mirage.
Three Questions in the Early Rounds
Last month, I took a look at this year's early-round RBs, asking three questions:
- Can we get this talent profile later?
- Is this price a historical anomaly?
- What's the WR opportunity cost?
This framework helped me to dial in my early-round RB targets.
I'm now looking to dial in my targets in Rounds 7-10—the rounds that offer a potential oasis for RB value this year.
There are a couple of reasons to think this area of the draft could be especially fertile ground for RB value. Historically, this aproximate range has been a great place to hunt for RB spike weeks over the years.
We also have significantly reduced RB prices this year. Theoretically, this range of 2024 drafts offers better profiles than usual.
Better doesn't always mean exciting. But if you're building best ball teams like I am, projectable RB volume in these rounds becomes pretty appealing.
Boring RB production is easy to fade when it requires deviating from upside WR profiles and elite onsies. But what if you can pair that production with high-end WR/QB/TE firepower?
Because... it also seems clear that this year more than ever, there's a huge tier break at WR that hits in Round 7. As a result, the opportunity cost for taking a RB drops off dramatically.
From that perspective, even if these RB profiles aren't any better than in previous years, the reduced opportunity cost at WR alone could make this year's Round 7-10 RBs better targets.
But the profiles still matter.
For one thing, there's a lot of these RBs. And if the RB Oasis ends up being the key to drafts this year, it's critical we get our target list in good shape.
Adjusting Our Questions
The three questions I used for the early round RBs don't fully work this range of the draft.
Here's why:
Question 1 – Can we get this talent profile later?
Yea... in Rounds 7-10. That's why this range is (potentially) an oasis. But now that we're in a range where RBs are appealing, the ability to get good profiles later is much less important.
Our best ball teams need ~4-6 RBs in total. And given the way the early parts of drafts shape up we probably haven't drafted many RBs by the time we hit Round 7.
So the ability to get a similar talent profile later isn't necessarily a reason to avoid a back. Instead, both RBs might be targets.
Question 2 – Is this price a historical anomaly?
This is still interesting. But we've long had upside profiles available in this range. What looks potentially different about this year is much cheaper access to projectable volume.
Question 3 – What's the WR opportunity cost?
This is the same answer for every RB in this range. Across the board, WR opportunity cost is pretty low.
Three Questions in the Oasis
This range of the draft requires a different framework than the early rounds. Here are the new three questions that I'll be using to evaluate the RBs available in Rounds 7-10.
- Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
- How strong is the talent-based range of outcomes?
- Is there additional contingent value?
Because there are so many RBs available in the oasis, I've split this post into four parts.
This post will cover the RBs in Round 7 in order of Underdog ADP.
Part 2 will post 8/6.
Round 7
Kenneth Walker
Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
Yes.
Walker handled 228 carries with 27 receptions as a rookie, then posted 219 carries and 29 receptions in 2023. Both seasons were 15-game campaigns.
Walker now projects as Seattle's lead back on a potentially improved offense. Three years ago – when we had 15 RBs going in the top two rounds – Walker would likely have been a third-round pick.
What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?
Wide.
Walker was a solid prospect who immediately became an NFL lead back, handling 228 rushing attempts as a rookie. And he flashed explosive upside, with 103 rush yards over expected (RB11) per NFL Next Gen.
Then in his second season, he flashed as a receiver, jumping from 0.63 YPRR to 1.30 and finishing RB10 in ESPN's receiver rating.
But there's more to this story.
Walker was highly inconsistent as a rookie, posting a 35% rate in NFL Next Gen's ROE% (I'll refer to this as success rate going forward). That was the 10th worst among RBs in 2022. Walker then dropped to 32% last year, ahead of only Joshua Kelly (31%), Jamaal Williams (29%), and Miles Sanders (28%).
Walker was also far less explosive in 2023, with -27 RYOE, again finishing behind Joshua Kelly (-25). The three backs immediately behind him were Tony Pollard (-39), Alexander Mattison (-45), and Austin Ekeler (-48). Walker flashed as a receiver, but his rushing output was legitimately concerning.
Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet turned in a very solid 41% success rate as a rookie, with 19 RYOE. Charbonnet's season wasn't great, but it was firmly in the Devin Singletary good-enough-for-a-coaching-staff-to-trust zone.
That leads us to Seattle's coaching changeover this season.
Will the new staff stick with Walker as the starter and use a more modern offensive approach to build on his 2023 receiving promise?
Or is Walker at risk of losing significant carries to a more reliable early down back as the season progresses?
Is there additional contingent value?
Yes.
Charbonnet's threat to Walker's role stems partially from this being a clear-cut two-man backfield. Were Charbonnet to go down, Walker would suddenly look like a locked-in three-down workhorse.
How I'm playing it
Walker technically has a sixth-round ADP, but he falls to Round 7 with decent regularity. I'm happy to take him when he does, yielding a 4% exposure blanket.
However, I've become increasingly bullish on Charbonnet the more I consider Walker's fragile projection as the clear season-long starter. I'm at 12% on Charbonnet, with hopes of increasing that position before the season.
David Montgomery
Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
Not really.
Montgomery projects, at best, as the Lions' early-down hammer. And Jahmyr Gibbs' 1/2 turn ADP is a clear indicator that drafters believe Montgomery could take a true backseat to the exciting second-year RB.
Montgomery isn't without his strengths, but he's arguably a similar bet to Kareem Hunt when he was behind Nick Chubb, who tended to go only slightly earlier.
In 2020, Hunt posted 36 RYOE and a 41% success rate. Montgomery is coming off a stronger year of 62 RYOE and a 44% success rate, and he's about a round cheaper than Hunt was in 2021. So there's a discount, but by 2024 RB discount standards, Montgomery isn't especially cheap.
What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?
Pretty weak.
Montgomery was extremely consistent in his first year with the Lions. His 44% success rate trailed only De'Von Achane (47%), Zamir White (47%), Christian McCaffrey (47%), and Chuba Hubbard (45%).
But with the Bears, Montgomery wasn't impressive, with success rates of 36%, 37%, 35%, and 38%.
Gibbs was significantly more explosive than Montgomery on a per-touch basis, so if Montgomery's consistency slips toward his career rate, he's going to have trouble holding off his 1st-round competition.
Montgomery is also coming off a very poor 0.78 YPRR, the second-lowest mark of his career. With Gibbs likely becoming more comfortable in pass protection in his second season, Montgomery's passing down role could shrink further.
Is there additional contingent value?
Yes.
Montgomery actually has a lot of appeal as a contingency-based bet. If he had this backfield to himself, he would likely produce as a low-end RB1.
How I'm playing it
In some ways, Montgomery's profile is terrible for the price. He's an RB2 behind a more talented Year 2 RB, who is a feature of the 1/2 turn.
There's no breakout upside here.
Instead, Montgomery functions as a bet against Gibbs. Given his exciting draft capital and immediate role in the Lions offense, I don't love betting against Gibbs.
At the same time, Montgomery's contingent value is crystal clear. He also had TD upside, even if Gibbs takes a step forward as an explosive rusher and receiver.
Montgomery's 7th-round price also makes him a nice fit with zero RB starts. I'm at 6%.
