Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 2)

This is Part 2 of a 4-part series on the potential RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10. This post covers the RBs going in Round 8 of Underdog drafts.

Here's Part 1:

Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 1)

Pat Kerrane profiles the RB Oasis: Ken Walker, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Najee Harris.

Legendary UpsidePat Kerrane

Part 3 will post 8/7.

Three Questions for the RB Oasis

I'll be analyzing the RBs below through the following three-question framework.

1. Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
2. How strong is the talent-based range of outcomes?
3. Is there additional contingent value?

RBs are listed in order of Underdog ADP.

Jaylen Warren

Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?

No.

Warren isn't even projected to lead his own team in carries. He's the type of talent-based 1B bet that is not uncommon in the late single-digit rounds—think Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

I'd argue this is a clear target profile, but Warren is priced in line with similar bets from previous years.

What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?

Potentially league winning.

Warren only handled 149 rushing attempts last season, yet he still managed to finish RB4 with 162 rush yards over expected, just ahead of Breece Hall (146). Only De'Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey finished higher in RYOE per attempt.

Warren was also consistent, with a 40% mark in NFL Next Gen's ROE% (which I'll be referring to as success rate).

Normally, I would use these stats to make the case that Warren could force a split with Najee Harris.

But I don't need to make that case... because Warren's already done that.

Harris still had an edge on Warren in short yardage, but Warren holds the lead in the passing game.

Warren posted a 1.24 YPRR as a rookie and followed that up with a 1.41 mark last year. Over the last two seasons, he ranks RB5 in ESPN's receiver rating behind Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, and Samaje Perine. Austin Ekeler ranks RB6.

Warren is also an excellent pass protector. Mark Kaboly reports that with the pads on in camp, Warren has been "dominant in pass pro during ‘backs on backers, to the point that Tomlin was using him as a measuring stick with some of his best defenders."

Warren doesn't seem to mind.

How can a small receiving back be stoning blitzing linebackers?

Because he's not small. Warren is a 216-pound fire hydrant.

If tasked with an early down role to go with his locked-in receiving snaps, Warren could feast.

Is there additional contingent value?

Yes.

As I covered in Part 1, Najee Harris showed last year that he's good enough to have a meaningful role in this backfield. If those touches open back up, Warren sets up as a true three-down workhorse.

How I'm playing it

Warren has flashed high-end talent in two seasons in the NFL and looks like a good price-adjusted bet as a versatile timeshare back in an offense that's going to run the ball a ton.

If he passes Harris as the clear lead RB this season, or Harris misses time, Warren sets up as a true league winner.

At 30%, Warren is my highest-drafted player.

Zamir White

Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?

Yes.

White was featured in the last four games of last season and averaged 21 carries and 2.25 receptions. The Raiders only added Alexander Mattison and receiving back Dylan Laube this offseason, setting up White with a very clear path to 200+ carries and 25+ receptions.

But White comes with a decent amount of uncertainty surrounding just how much the Raiders are willing to lean on him. We've sometimes seen backs like White fall into this range. For example, James Cook and Isiah Pacheco went in the early 8th last year.

White is also on a bad team, hurting his projected production.

But sportsbooks aren't overlooking White. When looking at his odds to lead the NFL in rushing, he stands out compared to the backs going around him. By this measure, he looks more like a 4th-5th round value.

Of course, we play a game that disproportionately rewards the receiving game – where White is unlikely to be a difference maker – and TD scoring. And the Raiders aren't going to score a ton of TDs.

So I'll readily admit this paints an overly rosy picture. Still, this feels like a pretty big discount for the rushing profile.

What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?

Intriguing.

White only handled 104 attempts last year but managed 34 rush yards over expected. His 0.33 RYOE per attempt was just behind Bijan Robinson (0.39) and Saquon Barkley (0.39) and just ahead of Jonathan Taylor (0.32).

White was also highly consistent, finishing RB2 with a 46.6% success rate behind only De'Von Achane (47.4%).

White was also fairly capable as a receiver, with 1.09 YPRR.

White has a thin resume, but he definitely flashed rushing upside with the potential to add some value as a receiver.

Is there additional contingent value?

No.

White's value is mainly driven by his clear path to early down volume.

How I'm playing it

White was an uncomfortable bet for me to get on board with. He's an uncertain two-down bet on a bad team.

Normally, players like White are priced a few rounds higher. I then cite prohibitive opportunity cost and draft a WR instead.

But at this cost, White deserves a lot more consideration. He's not a slam dunk. He's an early down RB on one of the worst teams in the league. But his potential to consolidate a lot of volume still has me at 11%.

Jonathon Brooks