Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 3)

This is Part 3 of a 4-part series on the potential RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10. This post covers the RBs going in Round 9 of Underdog drafts.

Here are Parts 1-2:

Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 1)

Pat Kerrane profiles the RB Oasis: Ken Walker, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Najee Harris.

Legendary UpsidePat Kerrane

Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 2)

Pat Kerrane profiles the RB Oasis: Jaylen Warren, Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks, D’Andre Swift, and Raheem Mostert.

Legendary UpsidePat Kerrane

Part 4 will post 8/8.

Three Questions for the RB Oasis

I'll be analyzing the RBs below through the following three-question framework.

1. Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
2. How strong is the talent-based range of outcomes?
3. Is there additional contingent value?

RBs are listed in order of Underdog ADP.

Zack Moss

Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?

Suddenly... it doesn't look like it.

I've been working on this article series for a few weeks. And when analyzing Brian Robinson's situation, I initially noted the similarities between Austin Ekeler's contract and Antonio Gibson's:

• Austin Ekeler
  • Two-year deal.
  • $3.3 million 2024 cap hit.
  • $4.2 million guaranteed.
  • Potential out in 2025.
• Antonio Gibson
  • Three-year deal.
  • $3.2 million 2024 cap hit.
  • $5.3 million guaranteed.
  • Potential out in 2025.

In other words, it looks like Ekeler got backup money.

But... to be fair, I also noted that Ekeler's contract was similar to presumed Cincinnati starter Zack Moss' contract:

• Zack Moss
  • Two-year deal.
  • $3 million 2024 cap hit.
  • $3 million guaranteed.
  • Potential out in 2025.

In retrospect, this was less of a positive note for Ekeler and more of a red flag for Moss—especially since Moss got the worst contract of the three RBs.

Moss got backup money.

Even still, given that Chase Brown is an unproven Day 3 back, Moss could ultimately have a valuable role as part of a Bengals committee.

But it's clear that he does not represent an atypical bet on projectable volume. Even if Moss ends up being a hit, the situation is undeniably murky.

What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?

Fairly wide.

The Bengals probably signed Moss as a capable contingency. If Chase Brown proves capable of stepping up, the explosive second-year back will be a nice win for the team. But if Brown still has holes in his game, Moss is a capable pass protector and short yardage back.

So Moss could land anywhere from a contingency play to a high-value touch king.

Crucially, Moss does look capable of delivering if asked to handle an important role. He has a career 40% success rate, with a solid 81 RYOE.

With 0.80 YPRR, he doesn't offer a ton as a receiver, but he could still lock down passing downs if he's the Bengals' most reliable pass protector.

Is there additional contingent value?

Yes.

If Chase Brown were to miss time, Moss would be the clear beneficiary, potentially consolidating the Bengals backfield.

How I'm playing it

Before training camp kicked off, I was feeling overly light on Moss in the 8th round and making an effort to get more. Oops.

Since then we've gotten a lot of very positive reporting on Chase Brown. Moss was still listed as the starter on the Bengals' initial depth chart, but I'd happily cash that in for the buzz that Brown has been earning on the field.

Given the initial camp reporting, I've been cooling off on Moss in a big way, hoping he ultimately falls into Round 10 or 11.

I think Brown will (and should) flip him soon. Once that happens, I'll be interested again. I'm at 6%.

Tony Pollard

Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?

Not really.

Pollard is likely the 1A or the 1B on a bad team, and he's splitting time with a back that he shares a lot of similarities with. The Titans have been telling anyone who will listen that they view Pollard and Tyjae Spears as interchangable.

Pollard certainly has upside if he can consolidate more work than expected. The Titans should be quite a bit more pass heavy this season and are expected to involve their RBs in the passing game. But fundamentally, Pollard is a bet on an uncertain backfield, which isn't uncommon in the 9th round.

What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?

A leap of faith.

Pollard is coming off a very disappointing 2023 campaign. His -39 RYOE was just ahead of Alexander Mattison (-45). His 36% success rate was just behind D'Andre Swift (37%). His 0.76 YPRR was just ahead of Miles Sanders (0.73).

But if we zoom out, Pollard's career numbers still look great. Since 2019, here are the backs with more RYOE than Pollard.

• Nick Chubb (1,118)
• Derrick Henry (889)
• Jonathan Taylor (721)
• Christian McCaffrey (602)

Granted... there's then a pretty big gap down to Pollard at 392.

But Pollard is still in good company, finishing just ahead of:

• Aaron Jones (365)
• J.K. Dobbins (291)
• Dalvin Cook (281)
• De'Von Achane (279—in a single season!)
• Saquon Barkley (269)

And Pollard still profiles as a versatile back, with a 1.18 career YPRR.

If he can recapture his pre-2023 form, he could be a huge hit.

Is there additional contingent value?

Yes.

Pollard is unlikely to operate as a workhorse back in Tennessee. But if Spears were to miss time, he'd almost certainly consolidate the backfield in a valuable way.

How I'm playing it

Pollard requires us to look past his most recent disappointing season and instead bet on a 27-year-old RB to recapture his rookie-contract form. That's an extremely dangerous bet, the type that requires a big discount to make.

But we're getting that discount.

Pollard was a 2nd-round pick last year. This year, he's frequently falling outside the top 100. I don't like clicking Pollard anymore than you do, but I'm doing it.

The Titans have been extremely vocal about their desire to throw the ball more—and crucially—also involve the RBs as receivers. I'm at 9%.

Brian Robinson