Exploiting the RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10 (Part 4)
This is Part 4 of a 4-part series on the potential RB Oasis in Rounds 7-10. This post covers the RBs going in Round 9 of Underdog drafts.
Here are Parts 1-3:
Three Questions for the RB Oasis
I'll be analyzing the RBs below through the following three-question framework.
- Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
- How strong is the talent-based range of outcomes?
- Is there additional contingent value?
RBs are listed in order of Underdog ADP.
Devin Singletary
Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
Yes.
Devin Singletary is on a Giants offense that will likely be tilted to the pass and probably won't generate a ton of TD opportunities. As a result, the projected rushing pie isn't super enticing.
But Singletary has made a career out of consolidating snaps, and he has zero established competition on the New York depth chart.
What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?
Reliable.
The last time that Devin Singletary played under Brian Daboll, he emerged as an every-down workhorse, peaking at a 93% snap rate in Week 15 before playing 100% of snaps in the Bills' playoff overtime loss to the Chiefs.
Last year in Houston, he showed the same capability to handle huge snap loads, hitting 75%+ snaps in six of the Texans' final 10 games.
And Singletary generally takes care of business. He's never been great. But he has enough burst to avoid a plodder label. And while he's not a super consistent runner, he's not a success rate disaster either.
As a receiver, Singletary has been less impressive. He has a career 0.75 YPRR with a peak of just 0.89.
Singletary has a knack for consolidating snaps, but even still, he's primarily a bet on rushing production.
The good news is that Singletary likely has a lock on the Giants' rushing workload, provided he stays healthy. The Giants' RB2 looks likely to be 5th-round rookie Tyrone Tracy. Tracy is an intriguing prospect who converted to RB from WR at Purdue and tested extremely well.
But Tracy is an extremely late bloomer who turns 25 in November. Given his draft capital, he would do well to carve out a receiving role in the Giants' passing game. Tracy might eventually make some noise as a rusher, but the Giants are likely to be counting on Singletary to lead the way on the ground.
As a floor pick, Singletary has some real appeal. The issue is that he'll be the lead back in a Daniel Jones offense behind an offensive line that PFF ranks fourth-worst and Brandon Thorn of ETR ranks fifth-worst. So the ceiling is definitely a concern.
Is there additional contingent value?
No.
Singletary is very clearly a bet that he consolidates the available volume in New York.
How I'm playing it
There's a phenomenon in dynasty where as a contending team, you can get extremely boring production extremely cheaply. That's certainly true of Singletary, who can be had for a future 3rd round rookie pick. This allows well-constructed dynasty teams – built on a core of young producers in stable situations – to backfill lower-priority positions like RB2 with underpriced production.
That production isn't underpriced because the league is doing something wrong. Our dynasty rankings have Singletary in line with the market. Instead, it's that once all hope of upside has been fully drained from a player, that player's value distills to their raw production. And unexciting production is only valuable to contending teams.
In best ball, we're kind of seeing a similar opportunity with Singletary. Given the context around his offense and a long history of an unexciting ceiling despite often dominating snaps, it's extremely difficult to envision Singletary emerging as a league winner in any kind of traditional sense. The hope of upside is gone.
But if you have a well-constructed team that needs solid RB2 production, Singletary is pretty clearly underpriced.
When considering Singletary, I really want to need him. If my room is Breece Hall, Zamir White, and Jaylen Warren, I'm not that interested. If it's James Cook, Jonathon Brooks, and Chase Brown... Singletary looks at least smash adjacent.
I'm at 6%.
Javonte Williams
Is this projectable volume historically underpriced?
Maybe?
Before training camp, Williams' ADP tanked on Denver Post musings that he was competing with Samaje Perine for a roster spot. That report was highly speculative and did not survive contact with training camp reality.
In fact, Williams is reportedly having an impressive camp, having dropped weight and looking much improved in his second season back from knee surgery.
“He looks like a completely different player,” Payton said. “He’s fully healthy now, and you can see it in his play.”
However, even with Williams impressing, he is projected to form a committee with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estimé.
McLaughlin excelled as a receiver last season and could see more work on passing downs, especially if he improves as a pass blocker in his second season.
Estime has also received praise in camp for his receiving ability. But he's more likely to carve out a short-yardage role. Sean Payton has talked about how impressed he was with Estimé's ability to avoid negative runs in college. He's also talked about the need to improve the 2023's "awful" goal to go offense.
Javonte represents a cheap source of touches, but it's hard to know for sure that you're getting valuable touches.
What does the talent-based range of outcomes look like?
Extremely wide.
Williams' improved form this summer is very welcome news. Because last year, he was one of the least explosive rushers in the league.
His -83 RYOE tied him with Dameon Pierce and was the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
And it's worth noting that Williams posted just 11 RYOE as a rookie.
So the idea of him as a bet-on-talent play is heavily reliant on his prospect profile. That profile was quite strong. By my model, he rates as the fifth-best RB prospect since 2021 (his rookie year), behind Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, and Breece Hall.
But that was three seasons and a multi-ligament knee tear ago. So it's uncomfortable to put a ton of weight on that initial evaluation.
The good news is that Williams did flash a bit as a receiver before being injured, posting a 1.18 YPRR over his first two seasons.
He then improved to 1.34 last year, although he achieved that with a ridiculous 32% TPRR and a poor 4.2 YPT. The TPRR could very well be a Sean Payton stat. The 4.2 YPT reinforces concerns about his explosiveness.
Given how poor Williams' 2023 season was, we shouldn't be shocked if Estimé largely displaces him by the end of the season.
But let's zoom out. Williams was a strong RB prospect who wasn't great as a rookie but was very capable as both a runner and receiver. He then tore his ACL and LCL early in the 2022 season. He was then very inefficient in his first season back from that injury. His head coach now says he looks like a "completely different player."
We shouldn't be surprised if Williams simply wasn't healthy last year and returns to solid efficiency on a good workload—which would be enough to easily beat his 10th-round ADP.
Is there additional contingent value?
Not a ton.
Payton likes his RB committees. We're very likely to see a rotation of some sort. The hope is that Williams leads the way.
How I'm playing it
Williams is pretty cheap in drafts right now, but during the – "he might get cut!" – July hand-wringing, he was damn near free. I was happily scooping him up.
I'm getting a lot less Williams in recent drafts, as I try and mix in other bets. But I'm still at 14%.