FAABulous Football Week 11: Keep Working That Waiver Magic
Welcome to Week 11
First off I want to say congratulations!
If you are still reading this article every week at this point of the season and still tuned into waivers you most likely have some teams that are doing well… or are at least still alive for a shot at the playoffs.
It’s amazing how easy it can be to gain an edge on competitors just by being tuned in, aware of what is going on, and active on the waiver wire, so let’s continue to grind those edges and work that waiver magic!
Those of you in FFPC high stakes leagues only have two weeks left of the regular season and will need to secure a top four seed for a chance to win big money and make it to the sprint.
As a reminder the top two seeds in each league, best record and most points, automatically advance to the sprint. While the three and four seed have a shot to earn a spot if they can win their league championship that takes place in Week 13 and Week 14.
Another reminder is any skill player you drop into free agency Wednesday cannot be picked up again for the season, this does not apply to kickers and defense. Teams that do not have a top four seed cannot make anymore waiver claims after Week 12, only those battling for playoffs have waivers available through Week 14, so plan out the rest of your budget accordingly.
If your team is likely advancing to the sprint, I suggest having a backup quarterback and tight end in case of injury, and if possible two defenses and kickers to stream matchups. These moves don't have to be now but it is something to monitor in your league, and be cognisant of the availability of these players in your league.
Overall, the waiver wire is getting thin at this point as I suggest drops, many of these are in preference to another player on the list, but if that player is not available you do not need to drop the player. Another great resource you can always check out is The Rest of the Season Rankings on Legendary Upside to determine if you should drop a player on your roster for that waiver addition.
A lot of players I list may be only targets as streaming options and single week starters, meaning if you have loaded rosters and bye week coverage you do not need to waste your resources on these types of players.
Instead look for those high upside stashes, emerging rookies who have flashed and coming out of their bye weeks are a good bet. When looking at running back stashes, prioritize those where we know who has the backup running back role secured and is likely to get a large volume of touches on an elite offense. Set yourself up for success, have the guy who if the starter goes down is likely a league winner and not just a usable flex piece.
This week we have four teams on bye; Falcons, Panthers, Giants, and Bucs before a massive six teams in Week 12, so plan ahead to get the best value and set yourself up for success.
Good Luck y'all now let’s dive into Week 11 and clench those bye weeks and playoff spots!
All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, ETR, and Stealing Signals.
A Look Back at Week 10
Week 10 Waiver Wire Wins
When I say “wins” it is in reference to the player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of Week 10, many things, in hindsight, may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am, in fact, bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).
Several of the top waiver options were not available or right for teams’ roster needs. I included these players I did not win any shares of as well ones along with the winning bid range I saw these players go for in other leagues.
Kendre Miller (2 shares)
Winning bid(s): $1, $3
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Khalil Herbert (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $13
Price range won in other leagues: $177- $202
Cam Akers (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $107
Price range won in other leagues: $7- $137
Audric Estime (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $34- $142
Zamir White (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $5
Price range won in other leagues: $8
Jaylen Wright (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $57
Price range won in other leagues: $17
Jerome Ford (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $103
Noah Brown (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $53
Price range won in other leagues: $27- $36
Mike Williams (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $44
Price range won in other leagues: $4- $89
Sterling Shepard (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $63
Jauan Jennings (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $279
Adonai Mitchell (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $13
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Parker Washington (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $3
Price range won in other leagues: $27
Theo Johnson (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $4- $119
Jake Moody (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $19
Tyler Bass (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Chase McLaughlin (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
CLE Def (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $15
NE Def (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $1
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $5
PIT Def (1 share)
Winning bid(s): $7
Matthew Stafford (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $27
Daniel Jones (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $3
Russell Wilson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $46
Aaron Rodgers (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $24- $44
Justin Herbert (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $13- $42
Trey Lance (no share)
Price range won in other leagues: $6
Anthony Richardson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Trevor Lawrence (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $4- $48
Geno Smith (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Jared Goff (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $22
Emanuel Wilson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Ezekiel Eliiot (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Trey Sermon (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $15
Antonio Gibson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $20
Gus Edwards (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $11
Samje Perine (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $43
Demarcus Robinson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $15- $27
Ray-Ray MCCloud (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $3- $6
Josh Palmer (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $36
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $37
Mason Tipton (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $9- $37
Kendrick Bourne (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $75
John Metchie (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $11
Trey Palmer (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $27- $100
Tre Tucker (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $3
Demario Douglas (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $151
Alec Pierce (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $2- $48
Odell Beckham (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $3
Curtis Samuel (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Cedrick Wilson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $45
Luke McCaffrey (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Calvin Austin (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Adam Thielen (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Gabe Davis (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $26
Christian Watson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $37
Ja’Tavion Sanders (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $5- $175
Juwan Johnson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $38
Noah Fant (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Isaiah Likely (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $57
Chig Okonkwo (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $3
Jason Sanders (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $8
Evan McPhearson (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Blake Grupe (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $11
Chad Ryland (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Jake Bates (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $11
Chris Boswell (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $2- $3
Cameron Dicker (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $2
Jake Elliot (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Joshua Karty (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Kai’mi Fairbairn (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $13
Brandon McManus (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $3
John Parker Romo (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $2
PHI Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $51
DET Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $26- $44
ATL Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $15
MIA Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $13
TB Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
NYG Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $10- $23
KC Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $28
DEN Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $15
MIN Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $46
SF Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $7
LAR Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1- $16
NYJ Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $13
HOU Def (no shares)
Price range won in other leagues: $1
Week 10 Ship Chasing Team Standings
FFPC Main Event Teams
Live A Little (4-6) 8th Place 1360.65 pts
This team demonstrated what it is like to start players from some of the worst offenses in football like Jets, Bears, Jaguars, and Cowboys and it went almost as well as you would expect. Even the Chiefs mega stack could not save this team.
Top 2 Win It Win It (4-6) 9th Place 1304.40 pts
They pulled out a victory this week in an attempt at a late season rally. This team comfortably won thanks to Josh Allen and elite TE Mark Andrews (as long as Isaiah Likely is out). It also had solid performances from the zero RB rookie studs Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy... so your saying there's a chance.
We Just Don't Know (5-5) 6th Place 1316.65 pts
I don't know how the stat chasing boys failed to reach 100 points this week. On paper this team looks ridiculous, but somehow Jayden Daniels, De'Von Achane, Zay Flowers, and Ceedee Lamb all decided to shit the bed at the same time, proving once again we just don't know...
Tree Branches (7-3) 5th Place 1396.10 pts
The boomertastic Big Dog team almost always feels like a good bet to pull out a win. We had some quick maneuvering to do Sunday morning after deciding to play it like Nico Collins was out (which was right). We put in a bid for Adonai Mitchell and started him, getting ahead on one of the top waiver adds this week. This is the kind of stuff I live for.
Hear Ye Hear Ye (3-7) 10th Place 1286.90 pts
This team put up a solid score but went up against a team with an even better score in this one. This team has put up a good fight but its been a rough season.
@CrakRok3 (8-2) 3rd Place 1394.75 pts
This was the closest matchup of the week and I was sweating one more Puka Nacua catch in the fourth quarter to seal the win. This is one of the strongest teams we have left heading into the final two weeks but it will remain a challenge to move into one of the top two seeds. The best chance the team has is to continue to win and hope the first seed loses one of its matchups.
Dairy Queen (4-6) 10th Place 1248.45 pts
My team lost again and also failed to reach 100 pts... no I don't want to talk about it thanks.
Caveish (4-6) 2nd Place 1422.85 pts
This was another close victory, but the match was over on Sunday so we didn't have to sweat the next day. Winning is pretty easy when you start off with Ja'Marr Chase putting up 55.40 pts and a 49ers stack... Now say it with me, this team FUCKS!
FFPC $5,000 Big Payback Teams
Leone HS1 (2-8) 12th Place 1120.65 pts
Another big loss for this one. Yes it was the Bills that let us down here... thanks Leone.
Leone HS2 (5-5) 8th Place 1331 pts
This loss stung but thats what happens when you have to start not one but two Bears wide receivers... I wish I could fire someone too!
Week 11 Waiver Priorities for FFPC
Below are all the players I like for Week 11 for FFPC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis and a list of players to consider dropping.
This article is also intended to provide value for those of you who play in deeper league formats and dynasty leagues.
Please note with a drop list, you do not have to drop these players and all suggestions are general as it is impossible to cover all nuances of individual leagues.
Tier 1
Audric Estime
Recommended FAAB 25-50%
Audric Estime saw a large increase in usage in Week 10 playing on 45% of snaps with a 64% rush share and ran 21% of routes compared to 10% of snaps, 20% of rush attempts, and 5% route participation the week prior. Estime took over the lead back role in Denver, after coming in during the first quarter and breaking off an explosive run and continued to be used in a close and difficult matchup against the undefeated Chiefs. Javonte Williams did not start this game either, and has performed below expectations this season, only averaging 3.8 YPA and creating 2.42 yards after contact per attempt and has a 13.7% breakaway percentage this season. Estime has not been elite, but has been the more explosive back averaging 5.1 YPA, has created 3.72 yards after contact per attempt and has a 14.2% breakaway percentage. Williams still was used on third down and pass situations, and I expect him to maintain this type of role. However, Estime has taken over the early down work and ran enough routes where he could get targets and profiles as a back that Sean Payton prefers (he is a big boy at 227 lbs). There are not many situations on the waiver wire where we can pick up the starting running back that is not contingent on injury for our teams but the Broncos do have a difficult schedule for running backs, with -2.4% projected fantasy points allowed over expectation (27th) to the position.
Tier 2
Gus Edwards, Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, Will Dissly
Recommended FAAB 5-15%
Gus Edwards came off IR coinciding with rookie Kimani Vidal being made a healthy scratch. Edwards played 25% of snaps with a 30% rush share and ran 8% of routes significantly cutting into J.K.Dobbins rush share in which he only had 45%. Edwards was the more explosive back in this game as well with 5.5 YPA to Dobbins 3.3 YPA, which could earn him a bigger role down the stretch, but the Chargers do have the 10th most difficult running back schedule with -1.7% projected fantasy points allowed over expectation to the position.
Adonai Mitchell ran 95% of routes with a 17% target share In Week 10 and saw some real opportunities in the offense with Michael Pittman out with an injury. The Colts second round rookie played well catching all six of his targets for 71 yards and had 1.92 YPRR. Mitchell is the type of player I want to be stashing and bet on to earn more opportunities in the offense, however I would only flex him at this time while Pittman remains out with injury, so keep an eye on Pittman’s status and also be aware that the Colts have the 4th most difficult wide receiver schedule with -2.0% projected fantasy points allowed over expectation to the position.
Mike Williams made his Steelers debut running 21% of routes and one target which gave him the opportunity to demonstrate what he does best, hauling in his only target for a 32 yard score. Williams now has the opportunity to earn a full time role opposite George Pickens and the Steelers get a dream matchup for wide receivers against the Ravens this week who allowed a league high 45.2 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Will Dissly continues to operate as the Chargers TE1 despite Hayden Hurst returning to the lineup. In Week 10 Dissly ran 67% of routes and had a massive 35% target share, his second game with at least 30% share and has finished as a TE2 in 6 of his 9 games this season. The Chargers are tied with the Giants for the second best rest of the season schedule for tight ends, projecting 1.6% fantasy points allowed over expectation, Dissly is a priority add in TEP that you should scoop up if available in your league.
Tier 3
Keaton Mitchell, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kayshon Boutee, John Metchie, Adam Thielen, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox
Recommended FAAB 2-8%
Keaton Mitchell was active in his first game coming off IR and while he didn’t get any touches on offense there is a chance he sees some opportunity after a long week against the Steelers. Mitchell most likely functions as Derrick Henry’s primary backup, but there is a chance the Ravens lighten Henry’s role down the stretch and Mitchell gets enough work for some standalone value, and if you recall it doesn’t take much for Mithcell to return value and he could easily be the home run type play if things broke right. If you recall last season as a rookie Mitchell led all backs with 8.4 YPC, created the most yards per attempt after contact (5.68) with the second best 152.2 elusive rating.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the Saints wide receivers running 67% of routes and 15% target share…which amounted to 3 targets for 109 yards and 2 TDS. I have obvious concerns with MVS’s ability to maintain this type of efficiency, or even if he can catch the ball most weeks, but he is likely to continue to play a lot and see opportunities. The Saints are decimated and their rookie who led in routes the previous couple of weeks saw a dramatic decrease with zero targets, and then they rotated new bodies just to try stuff out.
Kayshon Boutee is the most interesting of the Patriots receivers along with Demario Douglas, and my preferred waiver target over Ja’Lynn Polk who continues to play a part time role and rotate in the offense. Boutee led the team in Week 10 running 100% of routes with a 29% target share and 55% air yards with a 19.5 aDOT and is becoming a clear focal point of the offense.
John Metchie had season high use in Week 10 running 71% of routes with a 19% target share to finish his day with 5 receptions for 74 yards and 1 TD racking up 18.4 PPR points to finish as the WR7. Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs missed this game, but Metchie is the Diggs replacement who is out the remainder of the season, so Metchie has a chance to sustain this role even when Collins returns.
Adam Thielen is eligible to return from IR and while he has not played since Week 3 he was Bryce Young’s favorite target last season with 103 receptions for 1014 yards and 4 TDs. He could easily have value here in full PPR scoring that could pay off if he is fully healthy.
Mack Hollins ran 90% of routes and saw a 12% target share, catching all four of his targets for 86 yards and had a 2.39 YPRR to finish for the second consecutive week with double digit PPR fantasy points. Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for Week 11, Amari Cooper is questionable, and Dalton Kincaid left the game with an injury so there is a chance Hollins could see increased opportunities again and be a viable streaming option in Week 11 before the Bills go on their Week 12 bye.
Dawson Knox ran 63% of routes with a 9% target share and operated as the TE1 after Dalton Kincaid left the game with a knee injury. Knox would be one of the best TE streaming options available in Week 11 should Kincaid miss with Keon Coleman already ruled out and Amari Cooper questionable against the Chiefs who have allowed 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game (5th) to tight ends.
Tier 4
Kendre Miller, Zamir White, Cordarrelle Patterson, Curtis Samuel, Jermaine Burton, Devaughn Vele, A.J. Barner, Brock Wright, Davis Allen
Recommended FAAB <1-2%
Kendre Miller is on IR until Week 14 thanks to his arch nemesis Davis Allen making his final coaching decision another FU to Kendre. The rhetoric around the situation is that Kendre is healthy enough to play and the coaches want to use him, presumably to see what they have in the second year back as the team is not going anywhere this year. There are a wide range of outcomes here, but stashing Kendre for the fantasy playoffs makes sense as he could be a superstar if Alvin Kamara got hurt or missed time.
Zamir White began the year as the Raiders lead running back, but fell behind Mattison during the season. In Week 9 after OC Luke Getsy was fired White saw a 35% rush share and Mattison's rush share dropped to his lowest use since Week 5. Now they are coming off their Week 10 bye and there is a lot of ambiguity to how this offense will look, while I expect them to be bad there still could be enough volume for the running back if he consolidates the work.
Cordarrelle Patterson is a possible emergency streaming option in case Najee Harris misses with injury, keep an eye on health reports.
Curtis Samuel ran 88% of routes with a 24% target share, second behind Khalil Shakir in a game without Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper. Coleman has already been ruled out Week 11 and Amari is questionable, along with Dalton Kincaid leaving the game with an injury, setting up a situation where we could see Samuel relied on heavily in Week 11 before the Bills have their Week 12 bye week. If you need a wide receiver streaming option, Samuel is a good receiver to consider and could continue to have a role now that he is healthier.
Jermaine Burton saw an increase in routes from 43% to 53% this week and the Bengals made an effort to involve the rookie on some deep passes, but he struggled only catching one of his five targets for 11 yards. If Tee Higgins continues to miss Burton could see some increased opportunities again, but I am concerned he will continue to squander away these chances.
Devaughn Vele saw a large increase in routes running 49% in Week 9 up to 82% in Week 10 with a 15% target share, tying Marvin Mims for second most among wide receivers after Courtland Sutton. Vele finished with 4 catches for 39 yards and 1 TD and appears to be the Broncos WR 2 and could be another rookie that continues to solidify his role on an improving offense.
A.J. Barner ran 86% of routes with a 22% target share in Week 9 when Noah Fant missed the game with an injury. If Fant remains out of the lineup coming off the Seahawks Week 10 bye Barner is an available streaming option.
Brock Wright will operate as the Lions TE1 while Sam Laporta misses time with injury. Currently Laporta is said to be day-to-day with a shoulder injury, so monitor health updates.
Davis Allen took over the TE1 role for the Rams in Week 10, running 88% of routes with a 14% target share as Colby Parkinson only ran 14% of routes and was not targeted. If Allen maintains this usage he could be a starting tight end the rest of the season.
Tier 5
Bryce Young, Drew Lock, JaMycal Hasty, Dare Ogunbowale, Jeremy McNichols, Ty Johnson, Austin Hooper
Recommended FAAB <1-1%
Bryce Young is an option for teams that need a backup quarterback as many leagues the options are getting thin out there, but remember he is on bye this week. Young has averaged 12.7 PPR points the last three weeks and finished as a QB2 during this span and is looking much better than early in the year. The Panthers are tied with the Giants for the second best rest of the season schedule with 3.1% fantasy points over expectation for quarterbacks.
Drew Lock is another stash for teams that are set to make a playoff run as the Giants who are currently 2-8 on the season and have little incentive to continue to play Jones the entire rest of the season given the injury guarantees in his contract. If Jones were to get injured and unable to pass a physical by next March the Giants would owe him 23 million fully guaranteed next year. The Giants are tied with the Panthers for the second best rest of the season schedule with 3.1% fantasy points over expectation for quarterbacks.
JaMycal Hasty operated as the clear RB2 in the offense taking over the role from Antonio Gibson. Hasty saw all his touches in the first 3 quarters of the game while all of Gibson’s work was in garbage time during the fourth quarter. Gibson is droppable at this point as Hasty is the handcuff to stash behind Rhamondre Stevenson.
Dare Ogunbowale is the backup for Joe Mixon while Dameon Pierce is out with injury again and could have league winning upside if Mixon were to miss time.
Jeremy McNichols played on 31% of snaps and saw 18% of rush attempts in a game without Brian Roobinson. The week prior there was some questions as to who the RB3 was after Christopher Rodriguez saw 31% of rushes, but last week he only got two attempts, making it clear that McNichols remains the RB3 in this offense and is the handcuff if either Brian Robinson or Austin Ekeler misses time.
Ty Johnson continues to play more than Ray Davis, he played 30% of snaps and ran 38% of routes with 9% target share and took all the snaps in the two minute offense. I still think Davis would see most of the rush work should James Cook have an injury, but Johnson would see some as well and continues to have a role as the third down back who could be used for a team in desperation.
Austin Hooper saw twice as many targets as Hunter Henry this week to lead the Patriots with 3 receptions for 64 yards. Hooper still only ran 48% of routes but saw a 29% TPRR and played well earning a 78.7 PFF receiver grade (6th) and 2.25 YPRR (4th) among qualifying tight ends. Hooper is worth a cheap waiver addition for teams that are in desperate need of a backup tight end or to cover a bye week.
Drops
Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, Jaleel McLaughlin, Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashid Shaheed, Christian Kirk, Allen Lazard, Kendrick Bourne, Hayden Hurst
Week 11 Waiver Priorities for Home Leagues
Below are all the players I like for Week 11 for all you home league heroes out there! These are some of my favorite players that should be available in most home leagues based on the inclusion criteria of being rostered in <60% of ESPN leagues.
I will list out the players in my ranked order by position, and offer FAAB suggestion ranges, followed by analysis and a list of players to consider dropping.
You may move QBs and TEs up in priority if you play in a Superflex or TE Premium league or increase bids.
I am not writing up players discussed in the high stakes section, and sometimes the top tier players are also targets in your home league, but often there are better options in a more shallow league available.
Please note with a drop list, you do not have to drop these players and all suggestions are general as it is impossible to cover all nuances of individual leagues.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (47.8% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Herbert now has three consecutive QB1 fantasy finishes and has rushed for 27.7 yards per game. Herbert is the best streamer available and has two phenomenal matchups on the horizon starting this week against the Bengals who have allowed the third most fantasy points per game (18.60) to quarterbacks, followed by the Ravens in Week 12 who allow the second most fantasy points per game (22.30) to quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson (40.2% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Wilson has the best matchup of the streaming quarterback in Week 11 against the Raven but a more difficult Week 12 matchup against the Browns who only allow 14.64 fantasy points per game to quarterback (11th). Russ has now finished two of his three starts as a top 10 fantasy quarterback where he has thrown for multiple touchdowns as well. Russ is shaping up to be a better than anticipated fantasy quarterback this season.
Bo Nix (50.5% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-3%
Nix has also now finished his third consecutive week as a fantasy QB1 and has improved greatly as a passer. Last week Nix completed 22 passes for 215 yards and 2 TDs with an 88.9% adjusted completion percentage, his personal best and second best in the league. This week Nix faces Atlanta who have allowed the ninth most (16.21) fantasy points per game to quarterbacks making for a strong streaming option.
Drake Maye (11.6% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-3%
Maye stood out in Week 10 as the better rookie quarterback in a head-to-head battle against Caleb Williams in a difficult matchup against the Bears where Maye continues to show impressive mobility and an ability to extend plays. Maye does not have the easiest matchups coming up in Week 11 against the Rams who allow 13.88 fantasy points per game (17th) and Week 12 against the Dolphins 9.52 fantasy points per game (26th) to quarterbacks, but Maye still has a solid floor where he has averaged 44.2 rushing yards per game since becoming a starter in Week 6 and is a great high ceiling quarterback option.
Running Back
Cam Akers (16.4% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Akers played 29% of snaps with 33% rush share and ran 21% of routes and confirmed what we all believed after last week that he was the Vikings RB2 over Ty Chandler. Aaron Jones left the game for a bit with a rib injury, but did return, keep an eye on health reports as if Jones misses or is limited Akers would become a streaming option for Week 11 against the Titans who allow 20.6 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs (19th).
Jaylen Wright (5.5% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Wright played on 17% of snaps with a 24% rush share essentially overtaking veteran Raheem Mostert’s role who has seen no rush attempts since his fumble last week. The rookie has played well overall on his limited opportunities this season earning a PFF run grade of 87.1 (4th) and is averaging 4.5 YPA and creating 3.51 yards after contact per attempt with 14 forced missed tackles and 34.1% breakaway percentage and is now presumably the RB2 in Miami’s offense behind De’von Achane.
Tyjae Spears (45.2% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Spears returned from injury to see a season high 47% of snaps and 39% of rush attempts in addition to running 42% of routes with a 13% target share which coincided with a season low for Tony Pollard who has been on the injury report. Spears has increased opportunity with Pollard now dealing with lower body injuries and could continue to see more rush work allowing him enough volume as a flex play with huge contingent upside if Pollard misses time.
Trey Benson (15.9% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Benson played on 25% of snaps and matched his seasonal high 31% rush share while running 16% of routes with an 8% target share. He was on the radar after last week when I noted his usage was coming early in the game and the Cardinals were making it a point to get their rookie more involved. Now this week we saw Benson again get some opportunities early, but most were late in the game during garbage time. Conner is still the RB1 in this offense, but Benson continues to carve out a role and perform well where he could have enough of a role for standalone value in addition to a massive ceiling with a Conner injury. This is an example of the type of running back with league winning upside I want to pick up and stash for the fantasy playoffs and Arizona has the 4th best running back schedule for the rest of the season projecting for 2.3% fantasy points allowed over expectation.
Braelon Allen (21.9% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Allen saw his rush share increase again in Week 10 to 41% after dipping to 19% in Week 9 and still is seeing work in the Jets offense despite only having 3.9 YPA to Breece Hall’s 5.2 YPA. Allen is showing to be an important player in the offense and could be an emergency flex in the right matchup, but most of his value is still reliant on a Breece Hall injury. The Jets have the absolute best rest of season schedule for running backs, projecting for 3.8% fantasy points allowed over expectation making Allen a high ceiling option for your team.
Ray Davis (19% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 3-5%
Davis only played on 14% of snaps for the second consecutive week while seeing a decrease from 22% to 10% rush share but an increase from 7% to 15% of routes from the week prior. At this point Davis is nothing more than an elite handcuff, but I would like to stash through the Week 12 bye just in case he does see a role change after the bye.
Khalil Herbert (13.9% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-2%
Herbert saw his first action as a Bengal in Week 10, one snap… and fumbled, but he was not expected to get much, only being with the team for a couple of days. Brown has played well this season and I don’t expect Herbert to take on a massive role, but with Zach Moss finished for the season he is the RB2 and could earn some rushing work over time especially after their Week 12 bye.
Blake Corum (15.9% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-2%
Corum only had three touches in this game, two rush attempts for 8 yards and one reception for 7 yards and it is very apparent at this point that his only value is as a handcuff to Kyren Williams. Corum is a high upside stash if you have the space as we know that Rams can perform in the McVay offense.
Wide Receiver
Cedrick Tillman (50.3% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 50-100%
Tillman should not still be available in your league if you read this article every week. The Browns are coming off their Week 10 bye but over his last three games with Jameis Winston under center Tillman has run 91% of routes with a 24% target share, 21% TPRR and 33% team air yards shares with 21.5 PPR points posting fantasy finishes as the WR 13, WR 3, and WR12. If he is available go get him now!
Alec Pierce (16.1% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 10-20%
Pierce ran 95% of routes with 20% target share with 44% airyards share and 67% of the end zone targets where he caught a TD late in garbage time. Pierce finished with 4 receptions for 81 yards and 1 TD for 18.1 PPR fantasy points as the WR 7 for the week. Keep an eye on Michael Pittman’s health heading into Week 11 where Pierce could continue to play this same role, but I expect Pierce to continue to play a primary role regardless, making him a top waiver priority.
Quentin Johnston (45.4% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 10-20%
Johnston ran a season high 96% of routes in Week 10 with a 12% target share to finish with two catches for 24 yards and 1 TD on a day the Chargers matched their previous season low of 18 pass plays. There was some concern that DJ Chark could take work away from Johnston, but this was clearly not the case and the Chargers have the 8th best wide receiver schedule for the rest of the season projecting for 0.1% fantasy points allowed over expectation and should be forced to pass against the Bengals in Week 11 who are stronger against the run and likely to put up points.
Rashod Bateman (14% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 5-10%
Bateman saw a season high 25% target share in Week 10 with a 27% TPRR to finish the day with six receptions for 54 yards and 1 TD, making it clear that Dionte Johnson is not impacting his usage in the offense. All the snaps Johnson took were in place of Nelson Agholor, making Bateman feel like a solid waiver target and flex possibility, especially if Isaiah Likely remains out for another week with injury.
Ricky Pearsall (25% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 5-10%
Pearsall ran 71% of routes with a 17% target share in Week 10 coming off the 49ers bye in Week 9. There was some concern what the rookie’s usage would look like with Christian MCaffrey and Jauan Jennings returning to the lineup, but the rookie had his best outing yet with four receptions for 73 yards and 1TD to finish as the WR12. The 49ers have the 8th best rest of the season wide receiver matchups projecting 0.3% fantasy points allowed over expectations, but with a talented cast of play makers to compete with on the 49ers offense most of his high ceiling outcomes are likely contingent on injury to another player.
Noah Brown (12.2% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 5-10%
Brown ran a season high 97% of routes and had a team target share of 21% matching Terry McLaurin after out targeting him the week before. Brown has become a top receiving weapon in the Commanders offense and is easily an every week flex option the rest of the season.
Demarcus Robinson (23.5% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 2-4%
Robinson posted his lowest fantasy finish since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injury, but that's because he didn’t catch a touchdown in this game… not for lack of trying, he still saw 50% of end zone targets. Robinson continues to play a full time role in the Rams offense and can be flexed if you need a starter.
Demario Douglas (26.4% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 2-4%
Douglas continues to play his role as the Patriots slot receiver and one of Drake Maye’s favorite targets running 62% of routes with a 24% target share and 28% TPRR giving him a safe floor in PPR formats with a questionable ceiling.
Xavier Legette (47.6% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 2-4%
Leggette ran 100% of routes with a 16% target share in Week 10, and has shown to be the Panthers top outside wide receiver without Dionte Johnson since Bryce Young has returned under center the past three weeks accumulating 17 targets and 11 receptions for 107 yards and 2 TDs and is averaging 1.33 YPRR. The Panthers are heading into their bye week on a high note after winning two games in a row and we can hope this young team can continue to improve with these rookies. I will note that Adam Thielen has been activated to return, however Legette’s role feels the safest based on use and draft capital.
Jalen Coker (4.4% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 2-4%
Coker ran a season high 93% of routes with a 32% team target share and 0.80 WOPR (5th highest) to lead the team in Week 10 .Over the past three weeks Coker has accumulated 17 targets, 9 receptions for 155 yds and 1 TD and is averaging 2.02 YPRR with 78.6% of snaps in the slot. While Coker has been playing very well, I have minor concerns now that the team activated Adam Thielen as he averaged 73.8% of slot snaps in Weeks 1-3 when he was healthy with the team, but hopefully the Panthers scheme players to take away work from David Moore instead. Coker is worth a pick-up and stashing through this upcoming bye week or pickup next week, if you don’t have room, as rookies playing well earning more opportunities down the stretch are the type of players I want to continue taking shots on.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki (43.6% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 5-10%
Gesicki ran a season high 75% of routes in Week 10 and posted another 17% target share in yet another game without Tee Higgins against the Ravens Thursday night. Gesicki continues to see an incredible role in the Bengals offense, especially when Higgins is out, he is easily the top waiver option available.
Theo Johnson (2.9% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-2%
Johnson ran 83% of routes with a 19% target share in Week 10 and has become a bigger part of the Giant’s offense. Over the past two weeks Johnson has seen 12 targets (7th) and run 58 routes (6th) among qualifying tight ends. Tight ends with this type of volume should be rostered and not left on the waiver wire, but if you need a streamer this week you will need to look elsewhere as the Giants are on bye Week 11.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (0.8% rostered ESPN) Suggested FAAB 1-2%
Sanders ran a season high 89% of routes, but only saw 8% target share, down from 21% the week before. The increase in routes was partly due to injury, where Sanders was basically splitting routes with blocking tight end Ian Thomas before Thomas left the game. Tommy Tremble also missed this game and has played over Sanders when healthy, but as discussed last week Sanders has performed well when given opportunities and been more explosive and efficient player.I hope Sanders will get enough usage to stay fantasy relevant off the bye week even when Tremble is healthy, so be mindful this move is not without risk.
Drops
Antonio Gibson, Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashid Shaheed, Christian Kirk, Allen Lazard, Dionte Johnson, Xavier Worthy
We did it and completed another FAABulous week, working that waiver magic.
As always feel free to tag me in LegUp Discord if any of you have any specific waiver questions. Good luck, everyone!
