Five Early Round ADPs I'm Afraid To Lose
We're about to emerge from a true dead period of the NFL offseason. Over the next couple weeks we're going to shift from the post-minicamp doldrums to peak training camp mania. That's going to shake up ADPs in a big way.
As we finish up this lull in the calendar, it can be easy to underestimate just how big the upcoming shakeup could be. It's not just that we'll have actionable depth chart information and injury fallout to price in—people who aren't drafting now will start drafting.
Over the next month, our competition will literally change.
This got me thinking. In late August, what early-round ADPs am I going to look back on with nostalgia? Remember when we could get him a full round later than where he goes now?
If we knew who those players were... we'd load up now. As much as managing your exposures is important, we don't need to take players consistently at our desired end-of-summer exposure rate. I'd much rather load up at a good price and cool off at a bad one. Of course, that requires correctly predicting which players will rise.
And that's not actually what I'm going to attempt to do here.
Below, I've identified five players that I will regret missing out on if they move up in price.
In some cases, I'll be sad that once easily achievable stacks are a thing of the past. In others, it's because I'm actually somewhat hesitant to chase these players up the board. Instead, I'll be thinking longingly of their early July ADPs.
Round 1
Garrett Wilson
The vibes around the Jets aren't great right now. Aaron Rodgers can be a hard guy to root for at the best of times. And his unexcused minicamp absence created fantasy football waves.
This coincided with a quiet pre-training camp period from Breece Hall, who is recovering from a minor injury.
But Wilson was far from quiet, consistently impressive to those in attendance. His ascension to superstar status is being treated as a foregone conclusion by Jets beat writers.
Rodgers' "unexcused" absence was ultimately a non-story. It was unexcused on a technicality. The Jets knew about this trip, but per league rules, they couldn't "excuse" this type of absence.
Sure, it was a reminder that Rodgers does what he wants. But Robert Saleh knows that by now. It's already in the rearview mirror, and by Week 1, we will likely have no memory of the whole thing.
What we will be thinking about is the deafening drumbeat surrounding the Rodgers/Wilson connection. I expect August to deliver a heaping helping of hype like this:
And yet... it's difficult to truly prioritize Wilson in drafts right now.
He goes just behind Puka Nacua, who just finished as the fantasy WR4 as a rookie despite only scoring six TDs. He also goes behind established superstar A.J. Brown, who opens up a potential fourth-round stack with Jalen Hurts (which we'll get to).
I'd love to be overweight on Wilson... but I'm only at 8% so far. And what I'm realizing is that if his hype train picks up the steam that I expect it to, he could be going in the mid-1st by the end of the summer. I'll probably take him there if I need to, but I won't feel good about modestly packed bags at the end of the 1st.
Round 4
Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts
Last year's elite QB prices were a bit absurd. As Sam Hoppen identified at the time, second-round price tags on elites like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts came with prohibitive opportunity cost.
A year later... both of these QBs can be found in Round 4.
Not only is this a significant discount from last year, but both QBs are highly stackable. Hurts is readily available in the early 4th, making him extremely stackable with A.J. Brown.
A 3x WR start + Jalen Hurts stacked with his WR1 feels like it should be illegal. And yet, it's easy to get from the back of the board. If you're lucky, Hurts can also fall to the late fourth, where he can be stacked with DeVonta Smith or used as a bringback with CeeDee Lamb.
Allen is harder to pair with his top option. He usually requires an early-4th round picks, with Dalton Kincaid rarely sliding to the late 5th. But with Allen sometimes falling to the middle of the 4th, that stack becomes more likely. He can also be paired with James Cook in the 6th, and Keon Coleman is more regularly falling to the late 7th. Worst case, you can always reach for one or both of Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
One of the best parts about both QB prices is that they come after a fairly clear WR tier break in Round 3. If these QBs rise to the mid-3rd, I'm going to be less interested.
But getting them at reduced WR opportunity cost and paired with their top receiving options is pretty amazing.
