Harold Fannin, Folk Hero. 2025 Rookie TEs—Tiers 1-4
The NFL is excited about this tight end class. And when looking at Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland, I understand why. Both Warren and Colston were productive at big time programs.
As we move past those TEs, it's clear that the NFL is excited about players... that I'm really not. But after the prospecting layups, it makes sense why my evaluations would start to diverge from the NFL's.
The NFL is looking for players who can effectively operate as inline blockers and produce in the receiving game. To the extent that I care about blocking, it's only that these players are sufficient so that they aren't taken off the field. Drafting an elite run blocker does nothing for my fantasy teams.
At tight end, we see less correlation between draft capital and NFL receiving production than at WR. And so, I think we should give ourselves permission to shoot for the moon if, let's say, an unbelievably productive small school TE happens to come down the pike.
At the same time, draft capital does matter. This is a position where simply being installed as a starter has real value, especially in best ball. And so, although the NFL is excited about different Day 2 / Day 3 prospects than I am, I'm happy to play the expected draft capital game if my fantasy opponents aren't.
Tier 1 - Immediate Contributors
Tyler Warren
At a Glance
Warren profiles as a traditional inline TE who can move around the formation, including lining up in the backfield. He excels at the catch point and can win on shallow-to-intermediate routes and add after the catch. After a tremendous 2024 season, he's set to be drafted in the top 20, if not the top 10.
Positive Indicators
Warren is coming off an elite 2024 season. Helping to power Penn State to the National Semifinal, he caught 104 passes for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. His production was good for 30% of Penn State's passing offense.
Warren was also highly efficient, posting 2.78 YPRR and 2.82 yards per team attempt (YPTA).
Warren was also a productive rusher, adding 218 yards and four TDs on 26 attempts.
Looking only at 2024, it's hard not to get extremely excited about what Warren can develop into as a pro.
And Warren's career numbers also have some bright spots. In total, they paint the picture of a TE who can earn targets in the shallow and intermediate areas, and who can add YAC effectively on short targets.
Warren also looks extremely effective at the catch point, tilting 50/50 balls into 2/1 opportunities for the offense.
Warren's ability to move around the formation also looks like a plus. However, there's no doubt about whether he can operate as a traditional inline TE at the next level. At 6-foot-6, 256, Warren has the build you'd expect from a traditional tight end. He's also a very sound run blocker. There's not a ton of projection needed here... Warren will play a traditional role in the NFL, raising his floor.
Red Flags
Warren began his college career in 2020. Three years in, he'd played in 27 games... but had totaled just 184 yards and four TDs on 15 receptions. He'd also rushed for two TDs on six attempts.
After being limited to a red zone weapon as an underclassman, Warren improved to a 34/422/7 receiving line in 2023. But with a 19% dominator rating, it wasn't a very impressive showing.
Warren wasn't very efficient in his first four seasons, either. He peaked with 1.41 YPRR and 1.02 YPTA in 2023; both are poor marks.
As a result, his entire profile is driven by his tremendous 2024 campaign.
In fairness to Warren, he had some NFL-level competition to deal with at Penn State. He overlapped with Pat Freiermuth in 2020, Brenton Strange from 2020-22, and Theo Johnson from 2020-2023. Warren didn't play nearly as much as we'd like to see, but all three of those teammates are set to be starting NFL TEs this year.
Still, Warren wasn't productive until his age-22 season and will turn 23 in May.
And while Warren's final season was very strong, his style of production looks a little volume-dependent. Warren was not much of a deep threat in college, and his 53% contested deep target rate points to some potential separation issues.
We also don't have athletic testing for Warren. He's expected to be a good athlete. But elite athleticism is a big plus at the TE position, and we can't assume that for a player who wasn't willing to test at the Combine or his Pro Day.
Statistical Comps
- Hayden Hurst
- T.J. Hockenson
- O.J. Howard
- Dalton Kincaid
- Travis Kelce
Fantasy Outlook
Warren is a locked-in Round 1 pick. He's also a one-year wonder. But man... that year was good.
Warren's 2.78 YPRR was the second-best mark by a TE in the nation behind only Harold Fannin (3.77) and would have led the TE position in 2022 or 2023. In 2021, only Brock Bowers (3.01), Isaiah Likely (2.99), and Trey McBride (2.78) matched or surpassed that mark.
And Warren's 2.82 YPTA is the third-highest mark in my TE database, going back to 2008—only Harold Fannin (3.70) and Isaiah Likely (2.83) were more efficient.
Usually – and as we'll get to with Fannin – this type of efficiency comes with a major caveat. We're often talking about a player who isn't really a tight end but a big WR, or at the very least a move tight end rather than an inline player. We'd also expect some level of competition caveats with this type of performance. We don't have any of that here.
In Tyler Warren, we get a traditional TE profile that's locked into premium draft capital. We also get one of the most exciting TE receiving seasons in recent memory.
Sure, Warren isn't a Brock Bowers-level prospect. Frankly, he's not even close. But Bowers was such a good prospect that it was hard for us to wrap our heads around it. Arguably, he should have been the Superflex 1.01.
Warren can be several notches below Bowers and still well deserving of a late 1st round rookie pick, or a borderline top 100 best ball pick.
As I see it, the main concern with Warren is that his production profile suggests that he's not necessarily going to stand out on a per-target basis. Instead, he profiles as a shallow-intermediate target earner who can become a T.J. Hockenson-esque PPR force. But that type of profile works much better as part of an elite offense, or if the passing offense can flow through the TE as a defacto No. 1 WR. Not every offense is elite, and not every offense is willing to truly feature the tight end position. Here's what I'm getting at here—Warren does not look landing-spot proof. Whenever I see him mocked to the Colts, I wince.
But largely, Warren's high-end expected draft capital helps here. The team that drafts Warren is likely to believe that he brings a special element to the passing game, justifying a positional-value reach in early-mid Round 1. And with the ability to get open and add after the catch, there's a good chance that Warren does bring a special receiving element to the table.
Best Ball Recommendation
Warren is reasonably priced at pick ~100 on both Underdog and DraftKings. He's a minor target on both sites.
Superflex Rookie Draft Grade
Late 1st round.
