How High is Cam Ward's Ceiling? 2025 Rookies QBs—Tiers 1-3
Before we dive into the 2025 QB class, I wanted to provide some notes on the process I'm using. My goal is to find QB hits for fantasy football. In that pursuit, I'm prioritizing fantasy-friendly elements like size, rushing production, scramble rate, deep passing, and the ability to deliver to the splash zone (10+ yards and over the middle).
Of course, just like the NFL teams drafting these guys, I'd also like to avoid traits that can ruin careers, like an inability to work through reads, protect the ball, or avoid sacks.
As fantasy managers, we can overlook or downweight some negatives—provided we're getting upside in the bargain. We aren't drafting players on four-year contracts; we get to play things year to year. Even dynasty is best played as a year-to-year game.
Unfortunately, 2025 doesn't really provide us with a QB who will combine high draft capital with a fantasy cheat code scoring profile–whose dynasty trade value can withstand an underwhelming or genuinely concerning rookie year.
As I noted last year, after playing just four games as a rookie – four games – Anthony Richardson was a pick swap away from Joe Burrow in the superflex trade market.
Even with Richardson's paper-thin resume and injury-shortened rookie year, he was an extremely valuable asset until after his second NFL offseason.
Bryce Young's future outlook now looks far brighter than Richardson's, yet he's only just now passing Richardson in the trade market.
They remain just a third-round pick away in Superflex.
Dynasty trades can be hard to pull off, and they require effort. The fact that Richardson has lost a ton of value in the last year is clearly a big issue. The reason why – he stinks – is an even bigger problem. And I'm not going to pretend that I perfectly played the trade value game with Richarson. I still have him on some rosters.
Still, for fantasy-friendly QBs, we should be willing to accept some risk in Year 1, knowing that an escape hatch is likely to be available the following offseason—whether we're wise enough to use it is another story.
This is one of the reasons I wish I had more readily down-weighted some of Jayden Daniels' negatives last year.
But this year, we don't have that kind of QB bet. We also don't have a generational type of QB1 prospect.
Last year, the market's confidence in Caleb Williams was so locked in that he was able to turn in a thoroughly disappointing rookie season without really moving the needle on his trade value.
Last summer, Williams was universally seen as set up for success. Relative to expectations, he did not succeed... but the market is happy to run back the bet. That gives Williams drafters an opportunity to exit without a loss... after a season that would create a big-time value drop for most other prospects.
I'm pretty bullish on what Williams will look like in Ben Johnson's offense, and not really looking to sell. But the lack of a major drop in value is still pretty sweet. That's part of the appeal of investing in a QB prospect who the NFL sees as a true blue chip prospect.
But this year, Cam Ward is the only QB who looks like a lock to go top 5. And it's clear that the NFL does not view him as a can't-miss type of QB prospect.
Ward also isn't a fantasy cheat code. He has an enticing ceiling and should add some rushing TD value, but fundamentally, he has a dropback passing scoring profile.
With Cam Ward's type of profile, it gets much trickier to play the trade value game. We'd really prefer him to be good right away. Like, real life, honest to goodness, good at the game. If he's not, we don't have a cheat code scoring profile or a bulletproof prospect profile to fall back on.
This dynamic is even more true for Shedeur Sanders, who combines a traditional profile with significantly more draft capital uncertainty.
EPA Per Game
To help us better predict actual NFL success, I've added EPA per game to my model.
If you're familiar with the Walkthrough, my weekly preview article, you'll know that I prefer EPA per game to EPA per play because it rewards QBs who can maintain highly effective play on high volume... which is kind of our whole thing in the fantasy world.
Here's how this class shakes out in terms of career and peak season EPA per game.
If you're curious how my QB model looks now, I stripped out draft capital from it and rescaled it from 0-100 to create what I'll call the Gunslinger Index and then compared that to actual draft capital for the top 100 picks of the draft. I estimated the draft slots for the 2025 class (and somewhat optimistically for the late Day 2 guys to get everyone on the chart).
As you can see... my model does not paint a very rosy picture for this year's class.
Sure, Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe look worthy of picks in the late 1st round... but significantly less worthy than Malik Willis, Colt McCoy, Desmond Ridder, and Mason Rudolph did. So... I would really like the NFL to weigh in positively here.
Meanwhile, Cam Ward and Sheduer Sanders' profiles look very draft capital dependent.
Does that also mean the NFL is wrong to like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders as potential top 10 picks?
No.
Scouting is a huge part of the QB evaluation process, and my model uses draft capital as a proxy for the NFL's film evaluations.
But... it's fair to say that this year's QB prospects – especially Ward and Sanders – are heavily dependent on film grades.
For Sanders, that makes the buzz that he's not a lock to go top 10 pretty damn concerning.
Meanwhile, Cam Ward looks increasingly locked into a top 3 selection, making it easier to lean on generally positive film evaluations.
Let's start at the top.
Tier 1 - Boom/Bust
Cam Ward
At a Glance
Cam Ward is a playmaking passer with the ability to score on the ground. However, Ward's statistical profile is inconsistent, and his draft capital looks set to be inflated by a weak QB class. He profiles as a boom/bust prospect.
Positive Indicators
There's a very good chance that Cam Ward is the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
Granted, that means less than usual—this is not a strong QB class. Last year, there's no chance Cam Ward would have gone No. 1; he'd have been lucky to go top 5. But it's not like this class doesn't have elite talent outside of the QB position. If the Titans or Browns stand pat and take Ward over Abdul Carter and/or Travis Hunter, it will be a major endorsement. If the Giants trade up for him, it'll be a dramatic stamp of approval.
When looking at Ward's final season, you can understand why Ward is in the conversation at No. 1 overall. Ward is coming off a very impressive final season with Miami, where he averaged 20.6 EPA per game. That's a stronger peak season than Drake Maye, Deshaun Watson, or Trevor Lawrence.
Ward was especially impressive when throwing deep, turning in a big-time throw (BTT) on 5.7% of his 2024 dropbacks—in line with Drake Maye's 2022 rate. And although I like to lean on the stats more than the film in these evals, there's just no doubt that Ward has the ability to throw an absolute dime.
Ward is also capable of attacking over the middle of the field, which is a critical trait in the modern NFL. When throwing 10+ yards and over the middle – aka. to the splash zone – Ward turned in a grade in line with Jared Goff and C.J. Stroud. Ward also improved in this area over his career, peaking in 2024.
Ward can also deliver impressive throws on the move. Over his career, he hit 15 BTTs while scrambling—generating a higher per-dropback rate than Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson. Ward looks like a player who can create downfield when on the move.
Ward is also very capable of moving around and buying time. He's not a statue who needs elite protection to produce.
Just 10% of Ward's career scrimmage yards were what I call statue yards – 3+ seconds to throw from the pocket. This is an even lower percentage than we saw from Patrick Mahomes or Jayden Daniels in college. This movement ability helps Ward get through his reads effectively, and he delivered positive plays at a high rate when moving off his first read.
Ward is even more fun on the move when in scoring position. At 6-foot-2, 219, he's built like Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson; he's big enough to add some short-yardage rushing value. Ward proved he can deliver that value with 30 career rushing TDs across five seasons. His rate of 0.48 rushing TDs per game is just behind Anthony Richardson and just ahead of Daniel Jones, Kyler Murry, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield.
To be clear, although Ward is mobile, he's not a true dual threat.
Excluding sacks, Ward rushed for 24 yards per game—less than Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Will Levis, Kenny Pickett, and Baker Mayfield. But around the end zone, he's flashed some exciting potential to add rushing production. And he's more than mobile enough to facilitate playmaking in the passing game.
Red Flags
Ward played great at Miami, but he played four seasons of college ball before that and far less impressively. Ward wasn't bad before 2024, but his 48% career success rate is pretty middling, and his 14.9 career EPA per game isn't far behind Jayden Daniels and just ahead of Joe Burrow.
And although Ward was impressive in his final season, he wasn't anywhere near as electric as Burrow (26.8) or Daniels (26.2) in EPA per game. Along with Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, Burrow and Murray are the only QBs to hit 24+ EPA per game in a single season. Ward was well below that at 20.6 EPA per game. His career and peak season combo is more in line with Bo Nix than Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels.
Ward's peripherals are also a lot less exciting when looking through a career lens. For example, on deep throws, Ward's 2024 5.7% BTT rate was in line with Drake Maye's 2022 rate... but Maye combined that with a 5.7% career rate. Ward's career rate stands at just 3%—just above Geno Smith and Will Levis.
Ward has a reputation as a playmaker, but his willingness to take risks is a bit of a double-edged sword. Ward generated a turnover-worthy play on 3.4% of his career dropbacks, putting him in the same range as Carson Wentz (3.5%), Mason Rudolph (3.5%), and Jordan Love (3.2%). Ward was far from a turnover machine, but he's likely to turn in some frustrating stretches of play.
Ward also generated mistakes at a high rate when moving past his first read. Like Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold – who share this red flag – he'll probably be somewhat inconsistent when trying to create.
Sacks also show up as a minor red flag; Ward has a career 20% pressure-to-sack rate. That's not the end of the world, though. For example, Jayden Daniels' 24% rate was much more concerning in this regard, and the issue hasn't translated to his NFL game. But given Ward's generally loose style of play, his tendency to take sacks at a higher rate than ideal is worth keeping in mind.
And critically, unlike Daniels, Ward isn't going to threaten defenses as a true dual threat. Although Ward added solid value as a runner, he's not someone who is likely to see a lot of designed rushing attempts in the NFL.
More concerningly, Ward was hesitant to call his own number in college. Ward scrambled on just 2.9% of his clean dropbacks, in line with Caleb Williams. Like Williams, he looks like a guy who runs around on his dropbacks, rather than someone who decisively scrambles like Justin Herbert (4.8%), Patrick Mahomes (4.9%), Drake Maye (7%), or Josh Allen (7.1%). He's also nowhere near the clean pocket scramble rates of true dual threats like Kyler Murray (7.1%), Jalen Hurts (9.1%), and Jayden Daniels (9.4%).
Given his rushing TD production, Ward is a good bet to add TDs with his legs. But it's hard to count on much scramble yardage considering that he rarely chose to run in college. His fantasy value will largely be driven by his passing profile—which has some serious warts.
Statistical Comps
- Ryan Tannehill
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Sam Darnold
- Blake Bortles
- Kenny Pickett
- Jordan Love
Ward's comps are a stark reminder that QBs who go in the top 3 – as Trubisky, Bortles, and Darnold did – can end up busting pretty spectacularly.
But other than Kenny Pickett (woof), the other comps are a little better than they seem.
In his second season, Blake Bortles passed for 4,428 yards and 35 TDs, averaging 20.8 Underdog points per game. And Mitch Trubisky averaged 19.1 as a sophomore. In his first season as a starter, Jordan Love hit 19.2. Despite busting in Miami, Ryan Tannehill turned in 18.2 points per game in his third season before eventually peaking with 21.5 with Tennessee.
Sam Darnold capped out at 15.1 ppg in his first six seasons... but the former mega-bust is coming off a career year and is about to get paid – there was clearly untapped potential.
