Quick Slant: Christmas Day - Sugar Plums, Championship Payouts, and a Bowl Full of Jelly
Ravens @ Texans, Wednesday @ 4:30 PM
‘Twas the ev’ning of Christmas, and through NRG,
Rose the smell of Coors, brisket, and cotton candy.
The Texans had clinched the AFC South,
And next would come nachos, inserted to mouth.
‘Neath this easy feeling, a rumble did stir,
Not by indigestion the hot dogs had spurr’d.
Not by a discomfort from deep down below
But more how the Chiefs had just handled them so.
Feeling hungover, a season so plump
Fans anxiously languish’d through Stroud’s soph’more slump
Though banners were hung from the rafters with care,
T’were visions of N’awlins and who might be there.
This South thing is fine but was never the goal,
Houstonians hoped for a first Super Bowl
But Diggs tore a tendon, the line’s been so-so
Starts missed by Mixon, and Tank, and Nico
The division was sewn, the games would not matter,
Then south, from the airport, arose such a clatter
Emerging, the Ravens, best team that you saw
There was Hamilton, Stanley, and the young’r Harbaugh.
“On Andrews, on Bateman, on Madubuike,”
“On Linderbaum, Roquan, on Daniel Faalele.”
Fresh from a vict’ry that gave Pittsburgh a fright,
Their heads were held high, their shoulders upright.
With handoffs to Henry and Lamar’s laser passes,
Zay’s feet so fast, Andrews’ hands stunned the masses.
Monken’s unit was stellar, that much was clear
But Baltimore’s defense seemed missing from here.
The South had been solved, there was nothing to play for,
But crucial at M&T, Acrisure, Paycor.
The Ravens still battled, not slowing their stride,
As if Santa himself was right there on their side.
Then the Texans weren’t able to sit idly by,
Once eyes were laid on ‘em, they couldn’t not try.
They’d won their division but something felt thin,
Like trees without tinsel, no lights from within.
So, loins they were girded, focus was gained,
The competitive spirit was too far engrained
On one special We’n’sday, one hell of a fight,
PPR points to all, and to all a good night!
Ravens’ Implied Team Total: 26
Baltimore has taken their lumps this season, but through thick and thin, they’ve again emerged as Super Bowl contenders. According to Pythagorean Wins, they are the sixth-best team in the NFL.
Baltimore runs 64 plays per 60 minutes and maintains a run rate of 51%. They run 49% of the time from a neutral script but are led to positive game scripts often. They’ve only trailed by seven or more for 137 plays—just 14% of their total. Baltimore has spent a whopping 300 plays from a lead of seven or more. They maintain a 64% run rate from such leads. This has limited the play volume of Lamar Jackson, who ranks 17th in dropbacks. But hey—what’s new?
Jackson has always made do on incredible efficiency, mixed with his amazing rushing ability. He leads the NFL in rushing yards among non-QBs; he ranks second in yards after contact, first in forced missed tackles, first in designed rushing yards, first in breakaway yards, and first in runs of ten or more yards. Also, Jackson leads the league in passer rating by a country mile, having tossed 37 TDs and four INTs, and leads the NFL in turnover-worthy throw percentage at just 1.5%.
Jackson has fallen out of favor for the league MVP, a race for which he was long the favorite; this is based on how far the Ravens’ record has slipped in recent weeks. Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff are too flawed for the trophy despite their teams’ excellent records, and Saquon Barkley is a running back, which is nearly impossible to justify. Josh Allen is the Goldie Locks happy medium, plus he’s never won it before.
Still, Jackson is generally more efficient, and Baltimore is more efficient because of him. The Ravens rank second in EPA per play and offensive success rate. They rank first in EPA per dropback and second in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Ravens have only two players who have at least a 15% market share over their past six games: Zay Flowers (25%) and Mark Andrews (18%).
The Texans rank fourth in EPA per play allowed and second in defensive success rate.
Houston ranks third in EPA per dropback allowed and first in defensive success rate on dropbacks. Of course, we are never sitting Jackson in managed leagues, and his abilities as a rusher somewhat insulate him; but as a passer, this matchup provides a bit of a challenge.
Houston doesn’t divert much from the norms in the way it deploys its defense. It is generally in line with league rates except for Quarters, which it uses the sixth-most of any team at 20.1%. It still uses Cover 3 most often at 28.8% and Cover 1 second-most at 24.4%. The Texans use zone defense about 69.1%, which is pretty standard.
The great news for Jackson is that he’s excellent against these types and rates of coverage. He ranks first among all QBs in Fantasy Points’ Matchup Expected Fantasy Points model this week. Andrews also performs well against this combination of coverages, ranking 11th among all WRs and TEs. Isaiah Likely and Flowers each rank just inside the top 36.
The Texans have a bona fide stud CB in Derek Stingley, Jr. He may travel somewhat, although he won’t go to the slot, so when he’s on the outside, Stingley may seek out Flowers, then switch to Rashod Bateman when Flowers pops inside to the slot. When Flowers moves in, he should draw Kamari Lassiter. Both Lassiter and Stingley present neutral to unfavorable matchups for Flowers or Bateman.
The Texans have had their share of high-profile injuries, but one of the most significant recent injuries is that of Jalen Pitre, who was added to Injured Reserve this week. He is one of the better safety/nickel hybrids in the NFL, and because of his absence this week, former first-round bust Jeff Okudah will have to fill on the outside while Lassiter bumps in. When any Ravens receiver lines up with Okudah, good things are bound to happen.
