Quick Slant: Getting Back on Track in the Shadow of the Oncoming Train - The Saints Try to Get Right Against the Champs
Saints @ Chiefs, Monday @ 8:15 PM
Two weeks ago, Saints fans were on top of the world. Having eaten the Cowboys for lunch in front of Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady in the Fox game of the week, they had scored 91 offensive points through two weeks and looked like a Super Bowl contender. Two losses later, they are forced to take a long look in the mirror.
The Chiefs seem to coast each year as if they don’t have to study to pass their tests. There is already a subculture of theorists who believe the Chiefs don’t care one bit about the regular season as long as it amounts to a Super Bowl run when they finally start trying. So, they say, the Chiefs put bubble wrap on their aging stars like Kelce and offer the bare minimum. Add to it the mounting surplus of injuries, and the stakes have been raised; yet, here the Chiefs are at 4-0.
When they meet on Monday, the Saints will try incredibly hard, as every team does when it draws the world champions – out to prove they belong in a tier above; the Chiefs, I reckon, will offer the bare minimum. Based on this, it may be a bad day for the Saints.
Saints’ Implied Team Total: 19
The Saints have been a sensational surprise on offense, far exceeding most expectations. They rank third in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback.
Much of this is owed to an unbelievable start that saw them score 91 points, the most in a two-game span to start the season since the 1968 Oakland Raiders scored 100. The offense had been utterly impotent with basically the same personnel under OC Pete Carmichael. New OC Klint Kubiak led the league in play-action through two weeks after the Saints had been dead last in 2023; the Saints also incorporated far more pre-snap motion and rollouts, and Derek Carr likewise went from league bottom dweller to the best in the league through the first fortnight.
Since then, it hasn’t been so lovely: The Saints hit the earth like a dud warhead and have almost languished in two straight – once against reeling and battered Philly and once against Atlanta, who now leads the NFC South.
Carr now has the sixth-most TDs, 13th-best QB rating, 12th-best aDOT, ninth-best deep throw percentage, and tenth-highest FPOE among all QBs. He ranks fourth in CPOE + EPA composite.
Carr has fallen from first in play-action dropback percentage to third. His QB rating with play-action versus without is roughly 12 points better. His PFF grade is second among all qualified QBs on play-action.
Carr has been an enormous turnaround tale in 2024, but Alvin Kamara has had an even more significant fantasy resurrection. The age cliff will come like a thief in the night; deterioration can happen fast. Kamara showed a substantial decline in efficiency in recent seasons, with his FPOE dipping to negative values for three straight years and his YPC dipping beneath four in two of three seasons. In 2023, he seemed only propped up by passing volume. With expectations for New Orleans’ offense low, it was widely held that the Bitchin' Kamara, now 29, was coasting like the check engine light had kicked on and the rest had gone dead, and a stay at the side of the highway would next lead to the salvage yard.
But Kamara has been a massive boon for fantasy managers; going in the back of the fourth in FFPC redraft leagues this summer, he has shot out of a cannon to be fantasy’s No. 1 RB over the first four weeks, leading in opportunities, total TDs, and expected points per game. The Saints have the second-lowest pass rate over expected (PROE), behind only the Ravens, but Kamara gets a 20% market share when they do pass. So, the aging one actually leads all NFL RBs in percentage of team opportunities.
Kamara’s FPOE, often in high double-digits his first four years, is off to a searing start, already over 25 for the season thus far. His age is still of concern, but based on what has been seen so far this season, Kamara looks like a script-proof bell cow with massive upside.
The Chiefs have an efficient defense, and stopping the run has been a strong point. They rank 14th in rushing success rate allowed and 9th in EPA per rush allowed. But again, Kamara is useful whether the Saints are leading or trailing.
The Chiefs and Saints are back-to-back in percentage of man defense alignments, at seventh and eighth. The Chiefs spend the largest percentage of their time in either Cover 1 or Quarters, although they are well-rounded in their alignment diversity.
Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave have ranked 12th and 13th in percentage of routes against man-to-man coverage (it is not uncommon for teammates to cluster together in this), yet they fall out of the top 50 in fantasy points-per-route against man. Olave will likely see a lot of Trent McDuffie, although there aren’t any significant weaknesses in this Chiefs’ secondary. Of course, performance so far against man or zone is small sample stuff that may look entirely different by season's end. Even with that considered, this may be a slightly trickier spot for either of the Saints’ outside WRs to come through.
The good news for the Saints’ pass-catchers is that they play a concentrated game with three primary targets, making fantasy production easy to identify. Shaheed leads the way in market share, which is a bit of a surprise, with Olave and Kamara also at 20% or more. Such a high concentration of targets going to the stars we want tends to make up for a more challenging assignment.
Taysom Hill will not play. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo loves to make teams play left-handed, so it is conceivable this could leave the Saints’ TEs, traditionally an afterthought, with a more straightforward pathway to production. It is also a more defined coverage weakness for Kansas City in the linebacker corps; Juwan Johnson is a sneaky play for only the most desperate at TE this week.
