Quick Slant: Is This the New Allen, and Can the Jets (Ever) Get on Track?
Bills @ Jets, Monday @ 8:15 PM
The expectations for the AFC East were greater than this. People gushed over three teams and wondered which had the best chance at the Super Bowl. Only the Patriots were appraised with no shot; perhaps, in retrospect, we were only right about them.
The Bills have been the alpha dog in the East for some time. Josh Allen is an objectively good QB, and many believed he would be the engine of an offense undergoing a makeover. There were faint echoes in the corners of the fantasy space: What about Mahomes? The Chiefs slowly downgraded his weapons, and his aDOT and fantasy relevance crumbled. Maybe the Bills have gone too far, and Allen will suffer.
Perhaps the detractors were right: the 2024 edition of Allen hasn’t been quite as good for fantasy football. He currently ranks seventh in PPR (Mahomes finished 7th a year ago). Whatever the case, the Bills seem like a Picasso version of their old selves – a distorted version, inconsistent and disappointing relative to their potential. And here, it doesn’t appear that Josh Allen can serve as the lifeboat he has in the past. The year is young, though, and he’s proven he has abundant magic.
On the Other side of the aisle, the Jets have been the biggest story in the NFL this week. They fired Robert Saleh, who was repeatedly given the benefit of the doubt as circumstances around him seemed unlucky. Facing adversity this year despite relative health and fortune, the Jets decided Saleh was the common denominator. And they took a half measure with OC Nathaniel Hackett while they were at it – retaining him, most would say, to appease his friend Aaron Rodgers – but removing play-calling from his checklist of to-dos about the Jets’ facility each week.
What will Hackett do instead? Advise new play-caller Todd Downing? Make faces to Rodgers behind his back when Downing says something they don’t like? Play the Wordle? No one quite knows. But the Post will no doubt be there to criticize whatever it is.
Bills’ Implied Team Total: 21.5
Despite some blips along the way – perhaps only hamstrung by the perception of their greatness – the Bills rank fourth in EPA per play. They are second in EPA per dropback.
Allen has lagged in traditional passing stats—attempts, completions, yardage, and completion percentage—yet his TD production and abilities in the rushing game buoy his fantasy production. He ranks third in FPOE despite relatively poor EP.
The Bills haven’t given Allen as many opportunities this season, as they rank only 18th in pass rate over expected. The Bills rank 27th in time of possession; as such, they are tied for the second-fewest plays per 60 minutes in the NFL.
