Quick Slant: MNF - A Long Way from Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer - In This Life, the Bucs and Ravens Bring the Offense

Ravens @ Buccaneers, Monday @ 8:15 PM

The Bucs and Ravens enter Monday’s game perceived as two of the NFL’s top tier, and there are many implications for the playoff races. The Ravens are 4-2 and leading the ordinarily competitive AFC North. In what was supposed to be a four-way dog fight, the North is turning out to be a story of the haves and have-nots. The Steelers equal the Ravens’ record; they seem like fool’s gold. The Browns dwell in the basement, an extinguished candle. The Bengals seem better than their record might indicate, and yet they are 2-4 and, thus far, paper tigers. The Ravens rightfully feel like they are still kings of the north despite an embarrassing loss at the hands of hapless Las Vegas early on. But hey. It’s the NFL. These things happen.

The Buccaneers are co-opting the lead in the NFC South along with the Falcons. The Panthers are the Browns of the South—completely rudderless, inept, and unserious. The Saints began the year riding a historic wave through two weeks; since then, they’ve been figured out, obliterated by injuries, and left without hope—a fleeting thought that dissipated as quickly as it formed.

And so this pair find themselves in uniquely similar positions. But perceptions are habit-forming, and people can’t help themselves: they don’t trust the Bucs and Baker Mayfield. They gush at John Harbaugh, the savvy Ravens’ front office, and all the books they’ve read. And so the Bucs enter as 3.5-point home dogs. Is perception reality? Like . . . reality reality? Or will the Bucs prove they belong against one of the NFL’s sturdiest pillars?

Ravens’ Implied Team Total: 26.5

The Ravens have arguably the best offense in the league. They are second in EPA per play to the Commanders and second in success rate to the Chiefs. They are led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who currently has the second-best odds to win MVP. The Ravens are currently third in EPA per dropback and second in offensive success rate on dropbacks.

Jackson is almost objectively performing better this year than he did a year ago when he won the league’s top individual honor for the second time. He is arguably playing better than he did in his first MVP season in 2019; he is executing generally better as a passer while worse as a rusher.

Jackson enters this game ranking first in PPR, rushing yards, and FPOE. He is also in the top five in passing TDs, Y/A, and QB rating; he has the lowest PFF turnover-worthy play percentage at less than one percent.

As a rusher, he is tied for the fourth most scrambles but also the most yardage of any non-RB in yardage on designed runs. He has 500% the number of +15 yard plays on the ground as the next closest QB, the highest breakaway percentage and forced missed tackles, and the fourth most first downs of any non-RB on the ground.