Quick Slant: MNF - Can the Browns Spoil the Season That Was Never Meant to Be?
Browns @ Broncos, Monday @ 8:15 PM
The Broncos have been one of the NFL’s most pleasant surprises in 2024. Under HC Sean Payton, they’ve found a way to navigate a season that, for all intents and purposes, should have been a dead end. Strangled by cap issues after a costly financial maneuver to escape the Russell Wilson debacle, Denver was destined for a full reset. Instead, they’ve ridden the arm of rookie QB Bo Nix to a 7-5 record. Nix hasn’t just managed games; he’s sparked a sense of hope and resilience in a once-proud franchise stuck in neutral.
Payton deserves much of the credit for shaping a cohesive unit from a roster patched together by necessity. The cap constraints forced the Broncos to rely on younger, cheaper talent. The gamble was supposed to pay off at a later date; instead, it manifested immediately. Still, their margin for error remains razor thin; in the 2024 AFC West, every week produces a new must-win.
The Browns’ story is like the non-alcoholic version of their 2023 narrative. Last year, they clawed their way into the playoffs after Deshaun Watson’s mediocre performances gave way to a surprising late-season surge by Joe Flacco. This year, Watson’s struggles persisted before a season-ending injury thrust yet another veteran backup, Jameis Winston, into the spotlight. Winston has injected life into an offense that looked comatose. Though Cleveland’s record eliminates them from playoff contention, a relief from the burden of Watson has been the toppling of a statue from an oppressive regime. No fan base has been happier at 3-8; they smile as they toil, for the witch is dead.
For the Broncos, Monday night is about defying expectations and solidifying their place in the postseason conversation. For the Browns, it’s an opportunity to play spoiler and prove they’re not as far from contention as their record suggests. In a league where surprises are the norm, this game is a microcosm of how quickly fortunes can change, for better or worse.
Browns’ Implied Team Total: 18.5
The Browns offense ranks 31st in EPA per play and 32nd in offensive success rate. They rank 31st in EPA per dropback and 32nd in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
Before Watson was injured in Week 7, the offense was worse. In the first seven weeks, the Browns’ EPA per play was -0.193 (30th); since Week 8, under Winston, it has been -0.039 (22nd), which represents the third most significant improvement from Weeks 1-7 to Weeks 8-12 in the NFL in EPA per play.
We should be careful not to label the Browns' offense a good one; it is a functional one, which is more than we could have said in the season’s first half.
The key difference, obviously, is the change from Watson to Winston. Among QBs with at least 100 offensive plays, Watson ranked 30th of 34 (11.8th percentile) with a 0.014 EPA + CPOE composite between Weeks 1-7.
Among QBs with 100 offensive plays between Weeks 8-12, Winston’s 0.061 EPA + CPOE composite is 24th of 30 (20th percentile), slightly closer to the middle than Watson in percentile but 335.7% better in value.
Given that Winston is still a below-average QB, this is more of an indictment of Watson than an affirmation of Winston. The offense's improvement says far more about how bad the Browns were before the switch than how good they have been since. Still, even with this lukewarm performance at QB, the fantasy options in Cleveland have been awakened.
Since Winston took over at QB, the Browns’ focus has narrowed to essentially four targets in the passing game: David Njoku (21%), Jerry Jeudy (19%), Cedric Tillman (19%), and Elijah Moore (18%).
Njoku’s share from the TE position is a boon; the WRs’ shares are tepid. However, the trio may be able to make it work based on total play volume and, potentially, pass-heaviness.
Since Kevin Stefanski took over as the Browns' HC in 2020, Cleveland is tied for second in offensive plays per 60 minutes; in 2023, the Browns had 72 plays per 60 minutes, the highest value per game of any season dating back to 2018, which is as far as my data goes, and just 3.6 plays-per-game off pace from the all-time NFL record. Despite Watson’s woes, since the start of the 2023 season, the Browns have ranked seventh in neutral pass rate and have run the fifth-lowest neutral script seconds to snap at 27.5 seconds.
In Weeks 8-11 (I am discarding Week 12 due to abnormal weather conditions), the Browns have maintained a pace of 73 offensive plays per 60, third in the league and ahead of their historic 2023 play volume. Their pass rate during that span was 68%, tied for second, and their seconds-to-snap was 24.9, sixth-lowest in the league. Winston attempted 44.3 pass attempts per game during these weeks, which trailed only Joe Burrow.
Since Watson arrived in 2022, the Browns have been better without him in play volume, points scored, Pythagorean Wins, pass attempts, passing TDs, and passing yards per game; this has been primarily with Winston, Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and P.J. Walker under center.
Long story short, these market share percentages could work if the Browns maintain an accelerated pace and high throw rate, leading to a higher play volume. In Weeks 8-11, Jeudy, Moore, and Tillman were all top 12 in targets/G despite these unexceptional shares. Tillman has already been ruled out for Week 13 with a concussion; hopefully, this bolsters the market shares for the others a smidgeon, which would go a long way. Rookie Jamari Thrash is expected to pick up Tillman's slack.
A slight warning: Though Weeks 8-11 is four weeks, the sample is three games because the Browns’ bye was in Week 10; a three-game sample size is unreliable. The interest in any of this is the juxtaposition of these tendencies to those set before Winston was under center; the universality of these higher rates and speeds in each game, coinciding with the QB switch, makes the effect seem motivated by the cause.
One of the main reasons for the Broncos’ 2024 one-eighty is the quality of Vance Joseph’s incredible defense, which ranks 3rd in EPA per play allowed and defensive success rate.
The Broncos’ 2023 defense was often an embarrassment, especially early in the season, most notably when they were bested 70-20 by the Miami Speed Machine in Week 3. The Broncos made steady improvements throughout last season and continued to advance in 2024. Their improvement from 2023 EPA per play to 2024 is a reduction of 0.138 expected points, better than any other team in the league.
Their greatest strength is their pass defense; they rank first in EPA per dropback allowed and third in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Broncos enter the week ranked fifth in defensive pressure rate over expected (PrROE) generated; the Browns rank 29th in offensive PrROE allowed. This ranks as the second-worst set-up for a pass-blocking unit this week.
While pressured, Winston’s QB Rating has been 23.2 points lower than while clean. This is a significant reduction, especially considering how frequently Winston may be under duress on Monday. He will likely have to play at a reduced capacity for an unrelenting percentage of his snaps. However, the downturn he sustains while pressured is less significant than it is for all but about a third of the QBs with at least 150 dropbacks. Every QB is worse while pressured except for Tua Tagovailoa, although we would expect that to be an anomaly that will normalize as the season progresses.
