Quick Slant: MNF - Draw Thy Sword, That Thy Arm May Do Thee Justice
Ravens @ Chargers, Monday @ 8:15 PM
If Shakespeare wrote a rivalry, it would be that of the Harbaugh brothers.
King Jim: O younger brother, thou hast seized the crown that eludes mine grasp. Whilst I toiled, longing for triumph, thou didst snatch from me what fate denied. Blood of my blood, thy wound to me is deep, yet I rise anew. With ambition forged in secret, I come now to repay thy slight and reclaim the honor that is mine.[1]
Jim Harbaugh has the best winning percentage of any active head coach – better than Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, or Mike Tomlin. In a brief four-year run, he led the San Francisco 49ers to three straight NFC Championship games, winning one and claiming a seat in the Super Bowl, where he faced a familial foe – his brother, John, and the Baltimore Ravens. He has been away from the NFL for a decade, returning as a reigning NCAA champion, now looking to quench an unmet thirst in the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers.
King John: O brother, older by but a year, I have claimed our father’s crown and ruled in thy stead. Once I cast thee out, and so shall I again. This land is mine, and thou art but an intruder. Come and taste defeat anew; thy conquest shall crumble at twilight this Monday.
John Harbaugh became the Ravens’ head coach in 2008 and is the second-most tenured coach with one team in the NFL. He has a .612 winning percentage and won Super Bowl XLVII against his brother’s 49ers. The Ravens have been one of the smartest, fiercest, and most consistent franchises of the past two decades.
Harbaughs win. The 7-3 Chargers were supposed to need time to adjust – to rebuild – and yet, they feel ready to contend right away, evidenced by a gutsy victory last week against the Bengals. This was the case the last time Jim took over an NFL team; the 2012 49ers were surprisingly potent when many believed they weren’t ready, yet they fell to the eventual champions, the Giants, by a narrow three-point loss in the NFC Championship. Meanwhile, John’s Ravens sit at 7-4, powered by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, arguably the RB of a generation. While the Ravens' path has been rockier, they are still ever-present in the AFC conversation.
This contest may cast ripples vast, shaping dominion o’er our realm and greater still o’er our house. It marks the dawn of rivalries yet untold, heralding battles of renown through the years to come.
Ravens' Implied Team Total: 26.5
The Ravens and Chargers enter with the highest over/under of the week at 50.5. The Ravens have the best offense in the league, ranking first in EPA per play and offensive success rate.
Baltimore ranks first in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per rush. They are still somewhat prone to run, ranking 28th in pass rate over expected (PROE), but they are not as run-heavy as they have been in the past. They rank 12th in neutral run rate and fourth in total run rate. The Ravens spend 28% of their time at a lead of seven or more, and in these moments, they run 65% of the time, tied for third in the NFL from such an advantage.
As such, despite their monumentally functional offense, Jackson ranks only 13th in the league in pass attempts. And yet, Lamar Jackson is first among all QBs in PPR by a wide margin.
Jackson is by far the league’s most efficient fantasy producer at QB. He ranks second in rushing FPOE among QBs and first in passing FPOE. His combined FPOE is over twice that of second-place Kyler Murray.
Jackson has slid behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in MVP voting after suffering a loss a week ago to division rival Pittsburgh, but this is more a product of his team’s record than Jackson’s play. He is second in the NFL in passing yards, YPA, first downs, and passing TDs and first in rushing yards, turnover-worthy play percentage, PFF Grade, and QB Rating. He ranks second in EPA + CPOE Composite.
Jackson is a negative regression candidate based on his combined total yardage rate relative to his TDs. Thus far, he has scored over four TDs above the league base rate for TDs/YDs. If we took four total TDs away from Jackson, he would have scored 16-24 fewer fantasy points, depending on format, and would still be the No. 1 QB in fantasy.
The Ravens have three players with at least a 15% market share in their past six games: Zay Flowers (24%), Rashod Bateman (18%), and Mark Andrews (15%). Isaiah Likely is narrowly behind this pace at 14%, which is decent for a TE, although not exceptional.
The Chargers rank fourth in EPA per play and defensive success rate. They rank fifth in EPA per dropback allowed and second in defensive success rate on dropbacks. They have allowed the eighth-fewest passing fantasy points and the tenth-fewest receiving fantasy points.
Los Angeles has the second-highest rate of zone coverage, at 78.3%. Most teams run the most significant plurality of their plays from Cover 3; the Chargers do, too, but they run it less than 30%, which is rare. They do not run much Cover 1, running just 10.5%, the third-lowest rate in the league. The Chargers run a fair amount of Cover 2 and Cover 6, but they run the second-highest rate of Quarters in the NFL.
