Quick Slant: MNF - The Chiefs Make the Bucs Walk the Plank
Buccaneers at Chiefs, Monday @ 8:15 PM
Anxious about tomorrow’s election? Indulge the NFL’s Monday night distraction.
Tampa arrives in Kansas City as an avatar for the struggle of an enduring fan base that’s had to walk through a few thorns in recent weeks. Baker Mayfield was once labeled as a fill-in to take the wheel on a post-Brady pirate ship, but Mayfield has bucked his doubters and lifted the Bucs above the calls to rebuild, which have dissipated. The loss of WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Bucs’ two main targets, in Week 7, signaled for some that the jig might be up on Mayfield’s one-and-a-half-year heater. Meanwhile, Tampa’s spirits have been tested as the city recovers from Hurricane Morton. The Buccaneers are themselves battered, but they seem resilient. Bringing back memories of 2021 by meeting and beating the Chiefs may restore the warm and fuzzies and legitimately launch higher aspirations in Central Florida.
Across the field stand the Chiefs, undefeated and once again the class of the NFL, albeit leaning into more of a fantasy-antihero identity, completed by Travis Kelce’s villain ‘stache. Kansas City’s defense has thrived while their offense efforts to find its footing. Rashee Rice, the promising young WR who briefly restored a measure of life to Mahomes’ passing game, is out for the year, but they’ve added a piece of NFL history as reinforcement: Future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins may have a step or two less than he did in his prime. Still, he represents a more palatable plan to recoup something the offense has lacked than the signing of another retread who simply needs his key card reactivated. And as much as Mahomes commands the attention of our nation’s advertisers, Kansas City’s disciplined, disruptive, and dominant defense has kept them perfect so far.
For the Bucs, it’s a chance to prove they belong; for the Chiefs, it’s another step toward a destiny that has never been met – three in a row.
Buccaneers’ Implied Team Total: 18
The Buccaneers offense has been highly functional, ranking fifth in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. They also rank ninth in EPA per dropback and third in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
Mayfield ranks at or near the top five in nearly every significant category for fantasy. He lags somewhat in rushing but is still just outside the top 12. He has remained in the top three in both EP and FPOE, meaning he is caught within the intersection of terrific opportunity and equally outstanding efficiency. Mayfield is eighth in EPA + CPOE composite and ranks first in the NFL in passing TDs.
Mayfield is a massive regression candidate based on TDs/YDs regression analysis. He has scored over ten more TDs than he would have had he scored at the base rate. This leads the league by a substantial amount.
If Mayfield were to have scored at an average TD/YDs rate, his PPR would be 40-60 points lower than it is, depending on league scoring settings. With a reduction of 40 PPR, he would rank QB8 overall.
A few things about regression: It is meant to detect fluctuations in variance; falling regression does not mean to imply an equal swing in the opposite direction to bring Mayfield to average. He should still be expected to score at or near the base rate going forward. Also, players in hyper-efficient offenses, or players who are simply better than others (Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, for instance), regularly execute above base rates. So, these players should be expected to outperform averages – just not by as much as Mayfield is now. Based on this, the expectations would naturally be for him to perform in the QB5-QB8 range going forward, which is still quite good.
But Mayfield’s circumstances have also recently changed. While he was armed with among the best WR duos in football two weeks ago, he now finds himself without Chris Godwin for the year, and Mike Evans is expected to be out through the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye. These are significant losses, and we would expect any QB to lose efficiency whenever he loses his top two targets, let alone players as good as these.
Godwin and Evans drew 28 and 22% market shares in the first six weeks of the season; now they are out of the equation. In Week 7, in which Evans left early and Godwin was injured later in the game, the immediate heavy lifters were Cade Otton, who shot up to 22%, and Jalen McMillan, who recorded 16%. Last week, while Godwin and Evans were out for the entire game, Otton again recorded 21%, and McMillan logged 15%, so those remained pretty stable in roughly the first week and a half without their stars.
The Chiefs run the eighth-most man defensive coverage in the league, at 33.7%, surrendering the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback on such coverages. They run the second-highest amount of two-high, open middle, which means the safeties shade the sidelines, limiting deep sideline shots. They play the highest amount of Cover 2 man, although this only amounts to 6.4% of their time. Their most common alignment is Cover 4, which they play 22% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Mayfield performs exceptionally well against the types and rates of defensive alignments the Chiefs prefer to run, scoring 0.70 fantasy points per dropback against man defense, the fifth-most in the league. He scores the eighth-most per dropback against Cover 2 and seventh-most per dropback against Cover 4.
The receiving options draw awful matchups across the board; the Chiefs' corners are among the best in the league and should easily cover these backup and B-level Bucs receivers. Cade Otton, however, draws a plus matchup, so he should be in an excellent position to keep the momentum alive.
The Bucs intend to throw. They are tied for eighth in neutral pass rate and third in pass rate over expected (PROE). The issue may be their ability to succeed against Kansas City, as the Chiefs allow the eighth fewest fantasy points per play to QBs and WRs.
Then again, the Chiefs are a slight pass funnel, much of which is driven by their even better run defense, which ranks third in EPA per rush allowed and seventh in defensive success rate on rushes.
The Bucs counter with the seventh-ranked EPA per rush and offensive success rate on rushes; however, their best RB is Bucky Irving, who was limited on Saturday and listed as questionable. Irving has a toe injury; though details aren’t specific, the prevailing thought is he has turf toe, which is a nagging injury that can last literal years. He played last week; it’s more or less a pain management thing, so there is a chance he will go again on Monday.
Irving splits the backfield with Rachaad White, who may be a more reliable option as he is still more involved in the receiving game. He is sixth in targets and fifth in receiving yards. If Irving can go, White is still attractive because the Bucs are expected to play this one from a negative script, and if he can’t find his targets downfield, Mayfield may settle for check-downs to White. If Irving doesn’t go, White may get a more significant rush share, although we should also be on the lookout for Sean Tucker, who went for 192 scrimmage yards and two TDs in a game while splitting work with Irving when White missed time due to a foot injury. If Irving is a game-time decision and Tucker is on your waiver wire, he must be held until there is clarity. Even beyond that, he makes an attractive injury-away stash if Irving’s injury is expected to nag him all season.
