Quick Slant: MNF - Tomlin Works the Levers and Wheels; Daboll's Red Cheeks and Blue Veins Color Coordinate

Giants @ Steelers, Monday @ 8:15 PM

At 2-5, the Giants seem like slight overachievers. Proud owners of four Lombardi Trophies, they now cling to relevancy, an annual tradition spanning a decade. Under HC Brian Daboll, they have walked a tightrope between progress and peril for three years. Daniel Jones lives on a cycle of promise and disappointment; he flashes occasional competence, but his proneness for error inevitably rears its head and becomes erasure by twofold. Daboll, who rode an East Coast bias to Coach of the Year in 2022, is the human embodiment of a coronary, and nothing seems to drive him madder than Jones himself. The demanding fans and the more demanding media – avatars for a cold and often brutal city – pine for Big Blue’s past dominance; they are no fools and can plainly see they are on the wrong train. They have to ride to the next stop; there is no changing course until then.

The Steelers, at 5-2, are fittingly like steam-powered industrial machinery, all cogs and belts powered by coal. Mike Tomlin has been in the control room for approaching two decades to bang on the side of the machine when the exhaust sputters and backs up. Tomlin has undoubtedly made a career of converting question marks to exclamation points. Pittsburgh’s path to five wins in 2024 hasn’t been the steepest climb; it’s been a white-knuckle ride through mediocrity; to their credit, they’ve arrived at almost their best-case scenario. Last week, they furnished us with an October Surprise, benching 4-2 Justin Fields to make way for controversial cheeseball Russell Wilson, and they were rewarded with their most decisive victory to date.

And yet, the Giants could amass essentially the same story – making the most of a little – with one simple win Monday night. And the Steelers could feel the sting of the razor’s edge with a loss to yet another second-rate team (they’ve fallen already to the Colts and Cowboys). The stage is set; the lights will tell the story.

Giants’ Implied Team Total: 15.5

The Giants rank 26^th in EPA per play and 23^rd in offensive success rate. They are 24^th in EPA per dropback and 27^th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.

The Giants have run the fourth most plays this season. They run the 11^th-highest pass rate over expected (PROE) and have a 57% neutral pass rate, tied for tenth. When they are not in a neutral script, they trail, having played the sixth-most plays while behind by seven or more. When trailing by as much, their pass rate increases to 64%.

With a high PROE and a high volume of plays at an increased pass rate while trailing (and not yet having a bye week), Jones has the fourth most dropbacks this season. Between this and his ability as a rusher, he has compiled the second-best EP among QBs; an EP this high usually correlates to incredibly high fantasy production. And yet, despite this, Jones is only 21^st in PPR. This is because of his monumentally horrid efficiency. He ranks 24^th in EPA + CPOE composite and has the worst FPOE across all positions.

Low FPOE is a constant in Jones’s career; he has the sixth-lowest total FPOE by any QB since 2019. Many QBs with efficiency this poor seldom hold their jobs as long as Jones – a backhanded compliment. Still, his company is generally pretty low, with only Trevor Lawrence and late-career Ben Roethlisberger bearing a modicum of respectability among the bottom ten.

Andrew Thomas’s foot was recently injured; a Lisfranc surgery ended his season after Week 6. Last week, in the first game away for Thomas, the Eagles sacked Jones seven times, then sacked Drew Lock again for good measure.

It is common for the Giants to surrender a lot of pressure, but they have kept their pressure rate down about 4% with Thomas on the field the past two seasons.

Thomas's rookie season was challenging, but since then, he has been a valuable asset for the Giants. This is evident in New York's superior performance in nearly every significant offensive team statistic when Thomas is in the lineup compared to when he is not, starting from his sophomore year in 2021.

The Steelers rank fifth in EPA per play allowed and 13^th in defensive success rate. Their pass defense is their weakness; they rank 14^th in EPA per dropback allowed and 19^th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.