Quick Slant: Ravens and Chiefs Pick Up Where They Left Off
Ravens @ Chiefs, Thursday @ 8:20 PM EST
The NFL Kickoff Game between the Ravens and Chiefs provides massive intrigue to start the season. The Chiefs are coming off a second consecutive Super Bowl victory, while the Ravens are the defending AFC one-seed. The two last faced off in the AFC Championship this past winter, and the Chiefs won a tight defensive struggle 17-10.
Ravens’ Implied Team Total: 21.5
The Ravens enter GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium as 3-point underdogs to witness the unveiling of a banner they doubtlessly believed would be theirs for much of 2023. They enter 2024 with far more uncertainty at the offensive line than we’ve seen in some time, losing two offensive starters, RT Morgan Moses and LG Kevin Zeitler, the latter of which finished second in 2024 in PFF pass-blocking grade and made the Pro Bowl. Second-year player Andrew Voorhees is expected to start at LG, while rookie Roger Rosengarten should start at RT; each is uncertain, creating a potential weakness in an area we have come to rely on as a strength for Baltimore.
The Ravens were again quite run-heavy in 2023, finishing with a 49% run percentage and leading the league again, as they had in 2019 and 2020; the Ravens have been the run-heaviest offense in the NFL since 2018. However, in 2023, under new OC Todd Monken, indications were that such off-balance ground and pound wasn’t their actual intention.
From a neutral script, Baltimore was tied with a litany of teams for fifth in run percentage in the NFL at 47% and had the 11th-highest pass rate over expected, according to Nfelo. On the other hand, they ran 51 plays per game from a lead of 10 or more, most in the league by a wide margin (for context, the Tennessee Titans ran 60 total plays per game, period). They likely became run-heavy simply because they embarrassed their opponents early and decidedly every week.
Adding Derrick Henry seems like a divine appointment, as the Ravens’ smash-mouth style meshes well with such a powerful back who can stride in the open field and doesn’t need to catch passes to be productive.
The idea of the Ravens having a back with actual elite talent is liberating. They’ve gotten by for years with the Justin Forsetts, Terrance Wests, and dusty Devonta Freemans; the salad days included half-seasons of J.K. Dobbins and an aging Mark Ingram. Defenses should face an enormous conflict in determining which running threat to key between Henry and Jackson.
The return of Mark Andrews, fully healthy after a broken fibula forced him out of a Week 11 game and kept him off the field for the rest of the regular season, is critical. Andrews was utilized a little less, averaging 6.2 opportunities per game when he has averaged 6.6 opportunities per game for his career, but his efficiency was good; he was pacing for about 40 FPOE before his injury, ranking 4th in FPOE/game among TEs. Lamar Jackson was good for a 135.1 QBR when targeting Andrews, and Andrews had a 1.93 YPRR – down from his previous seasons but well ahead of most TEs. He was the first read on 17% of his routes. Andrews was available for the AFC Championship but may have been gutting it out somewhat.
The Chiefs had an excellent season on defense a year ago, and they allowed just -0.076 EPA/play, good for sixth-best in the league. However, their defense was imbalanced in favor of the pass, as they allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game while trending toward average in rushing defense. Kansas City traded L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans this off-season; Sneed had the third-lowest EPA/target allowed among NFL corners and was considered by many among the biggest Pro Bowl snubs in 2023.
Kansas City ranked fifth from the bottom in rush EPA/Play, meaning their defense should be exploitable on the ground. As the Lions carved the Chiefs up on the ground in the first game of the year in 2023 (348 rushing yards), look for the Ravens to be intent on a similar game plan if they can. This could bode well for Henry, after all.
