Quick Slant: SNF - Building a Winning Culture Out of Wins
Chargers @ Chiefs, Sunday @ 8:20 PM
On the western edge of Missouri, the noises of GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the loudest outdoor venue in the world, hitch a ride on the wind over a small metropolis dolloped into the Midwestern plains. The roar of 70,000, huddled in the chill of a fresh December as one joyous organism, spills from the cherry red bowl across the NFL’s most active tailgating community, collecting the scent of smoked brisket like dandelion pappi, and carrying the sum of it onward into the vast, dark plains of the Dust Bowl. This is Kansas City in Winning Time, where football isn't just a game but a birthright. The champions and their loyalists defy their doubters by counting three recent rings, including the last two; it’s all they have to say.
The Chiefs have been accused of an inflated record scarred by narrow victories. In the end, is 11-1 a product of good fortune or directed by Mahomes Magic? After all, the dazzling no-look passes and pirouetted scrambles that frequently claim final gun dubs do emanate from his mind and body. Mahomes has always had an answer through adversity, possessing that thing that steeled the nerves of legends like Jordan, Big Papi, and Tiger.
Since claiming Lombardi for the first time in early 2020, Mahomes has been accessorized by future Hall of Famers. He is elevated by the greatest pure pass-catching TE of all time, Travis Kelce, balanced by one of the greatest pass-rushing defensive tackles of his era, Chris Jones, and steadied by the wisdom and innovation of Andy Reid, who has made dominance routine. Though the supporting cast has come and gone, this inevitable nucleus has forged a mighty empire.
But heavy is the head. And a challenger enters from the west.
The Los Angeles Chargers, once a footnote in this long-time rivalry, now carry themselves with a punk attitude in khaki and fleece. Their leader is Jim Harbaugh, returning to the league after years away, and bringing his own magic. Harbaugh’s Chargers were told what they wouldn’t accomplish in Year One. They had to have heard it, so, what? They don’t care? Yet, even as they rattle off win after surprising win, most of us likely miss the point. While many rebuilding teams shop for talent and plan to win later, the Chargers are building a winning culture out of wins, and there is no time like the present for that.
For the Chiefs, this Sunday Night Football episode is one in a stream of constant reminders that the NFL's throne demands constant vigilance, even against challengers punching above their weight. For the Chargers, this isn’t personal; it’s survival. Toppling the system, earning respect, and even conquering the despised red and gold can come another time. For now, LA would settle for control of their destiny and a trip to the playoffs.
Chargers’ Implied Team Total: 19.5
According to Pythagorean wins, a model rooted in points for vs. points against, the Chargers are the fourth-best team in the league – better than the mighty Chiefs.
Most don’t see it that way; perhaps many of us can cut through the bureaucracy of such an unfeeling system; it doesn’t take long to refute Pythagorean wins – it leaves no room for intangibles, some teams push in decided games while others lay off, it uses full-season data and ignores recency. But we should ask ourselves: is our perception of Los Angeles based on logic or feeling? Have we not caught up to what we weren’t emotionally ready for – that, under a new regime, the LA Chargers could be this good this quickly?
Scan the roster, and you’ll see a slew of written-offs and complete unknowns. There are stars, yes – Justin Herbert in the captain’s chair, Derwin James, Joey Bosa, and two studs at tackle. But there is simultaneously an uprising: kids like Ladd McConkey, Daiyan Henley, and Tarheeb Still; and forgotten remnants of another time like Khalil Mack, J.K. Dobbins, Will Dissly, and Marcus Maye. They are linked by one commonality that seems to produce results no matter where it emerges: the coach with the best active winning percentage in the NFL today, Harbaugh.
With Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman reunited from their days of dominance in San Francisco over ten years ago, most analysts saw an influx of ball-control style football on the horizon; this was the case for them with the 49ers, this was how it was for Harbaugh at Michigan, and this is how it was for Roman in Buffalo and Baltimore. So, how has it been through the first 13 games of the Harbaugh/Roman era in LA?
The Chargers are right in the middle in pass rate over expected (PROE) at 16th and are 18th in neutral run rate. They spend an unbelievable 97% of their time either playing from a neutral script or with a substantial lead. They have only trailed by seven or more for 35 total plays, by far the fewest in the league. As most teams do, they increase their run rate from a lead.
Agnostic of the script, the Chargers are tied for the ninth-highest run rate in the league. This is probably not as run-heavy as many had feared. However, they also run third-slowest at the line, so they have run 735 offensive plays, the third-fewest in the league. With such a low play volume, players must make the most of their opportunities, especially in the passing game, since they maintain a relatively low pass rate.
Herbert ranks 17th with 394 dropbacks, the second-fewest by any QB with 12 starts. He is 30th in passing attempts/G, 23rd in passing yardage, and tied for 25th in TDs. Due to reduced volume, Herbert only ranks 18th in PPR/G, barely playable in single-QB leagues.
Herbert was a QB1 in each game from Weeks 8-12. This seemed to renew confidence for much of the fantasy community, as in Weeks 1-7, Herbert ranked just 28th in PPR/G and during the five games from Weeks 8-12, he ranked sixth.
There are a couple of ways to take this. We might expect a player on a new team and in a new system to require a little ramping-up period. If so, we may see Week 8 as a breakthrough and Week 13 as an irregular down game. This is a realistic theory.
On the other hand, most players have ups and downs based on variance. In an oddity, Herbert’s spike weeks could line up consecutively at random. Herbert has four two-TD games this year: Weeks 2, 8, 9, and 11. Three of them fall in this five-game range. TDs are viewed as high-variance stats, but the effects are clearer on the extremes. If a player gets a string of zeroes when he’s earning average passing production, that’s out of whack. If a player earns a string of four-TD games, that’s out of whack. Two-TD games for a player like Herbert don’t seem uncharacteristic at all.
He has performed better as a rusher in the past month, earning 4.3 rushing EP from Weeks 10-12, seventh-most in the league. In the first nine games of the season, he averaged just 1.3 rushing EP/G, well below his career average of 2.8.
These three pop-up games are included in the five-game span between Weeks 8-12. While we expect more rushing production than Herbert has earned anywhere outside of Weeks 10-12, the way these three games line up seems random. I would suggest all were expected to happen; maybe we would have expected them to be spread out rather than occur in consecutive weeks. We might subsequently suppose these spikes will continue to recur periodically, boosting fantasy production in select games. Of course, we don’t know when those will be; Herbert has only five yards on designed runs; the rest come from scrambles.
My conclusion, boring as it may be, is that Herbert’s season-long per-game stats provide a clearer and more predictive picture than emerging patterns from shifting tendencies.
There are three Chargers’ players with a 15% market share or better in the past six games: McConkey (25%), Quentin Johnston (18%), and Dissly (16%).
McConkey has surged lately, having earned his two highest-target games in the past three weeks. This past week, McConkey secured 12 targets and a 50% target share, both season highs.
The details are different, but the conflict is the same. Is McConkey experiencing growth, as we might expect from a rookie, and receiving more trust as he passes more tests? We can’t know that yet, but we expect back-weighted production from rookies, and McConkey is far and away the most trustworthy Chargers’ pass-catching option based on efficiency. It is already defined that McConkey is the team’s alpha; he may be evolving into a borderline fantasy WR1.
The Chargers’ per-play passing game work leaves something to be desired. They rank 16th in EPA per dropback and 26th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Chiefs have the reputation of a great defense, but they struggle against the pass. They rank 21st in EPA per dropback allowed and 23rd in defensive success rate on dropbacks. They have allowed the 16th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and the 17th-fewest to opposing WRs.
The Chiefs run the sixth-most man defense at 35.3%. They run several defensive alignments; mainly in Cover 1 at 23.0% and Cover 4 at 21.3%; these are the only formations they run at least 20% of the time. They run Cover 0 at a higher rate than all but the Raiders, but this still constitutes only 7.7% of their defensive plays. They counter this empty philosophy by running the third-highest percentage of plays with two high safeties shading outside, mitigating deep shots down either sideline.
According to Fantasy Points’ Matchup Expected Fantasy Points model, Herbert ranks as the 17th-ranked QB this week against the types and rates of coverages the Chiefs utilize. Their top WR or TE in this model is McConkey, who ranks 19th; Dissly ranks 45th and Johnston ranks 57th.
McConkey plays 72% of his plays from the slot and should have an advantage over Chiefs' nickel back Chamarri Conner. Nazeeh Johnson provides the most exploitable matchup based on PFF Coverage grades, and Johnson’s most common assignment should be Johnston on the offensive left side. Dissly draws a neutral matchup.
