Quick Slant: SNF - Dan Campbell Returns to Texas to Stunt the Growth of a Doppelganger
Lions @ Texans, Sunday @ 8:20 PM
Sunday night features a clash of teams with more in common than their records suggest – though only one holds a seat at the top.
Forget the jungle; the Lions come into this one as kings of the NFC, sporting a 7-1 record and a brand of football that feels tailor-made for the underdog spirit; where there once was Rocky, the void has been culturally occupied by the Lions. Led by Jared Goff, who’s come a long way from his days as a cast-off, Detroit is no stranger to the grind, the heartbreak, the long road to relevance. They’re tough, scrappy, and hard not to love – urban survivalist charm embodied. Under HC Dan Campbell – tough as nails, transparent, intelligent, and charismatic – the Lions have become icons for the American ideal – the reflection most want to see of themselves – the determination they wish they could generate and maintain. They’re a playoff team with momentum, still carrying the sting of last year’s NFC Championship loss; now, they are on the hunt for something greater.
On the other hand, the Texans are building a reputation of their own, though they’re still waiting for the moment when it all clicks. They’re missing a few key receivers, and their passing game has endured setbacks from last year’s promise. Houston wants to be what Detroit has finally become; it feels like they will, but they are not fully realized. Winning Sunday could perhaps spur a sea change.
When these two line up on Sunday, it won’t just be about the win-loss column; it’ll be a look at what it takes to turn the corner from a hopeful contender to a justified one. The Lions have found their identity and stand at the doorstep of greatness. The Texans? They’re still searching.
Lions’ Implied Team Total: 26.5
The Lions enter with the third-highest implied team total of the week. They are favored by 3.5 on the road to a team many recently thought a Super Bowl contender. They enter with the fourth-best EPA per play and eighth-best offensive success rate. Detroit ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
At his core, Goff is a flawed entity for fantasy (he is a better real-life QB); he doesn’t run, and the passing game is not the driver of the Detroit Lions machine. They are inclined to run and have plenty of excuses to do so.
The Lions rank in the bottom third in pass rate over expected (PROE) and neutral pass rate. They run slow, averaging the third slowest neutral script seconds to snap. They have run 42.5% of their plays from a lead of seven or more, the second-highest rate in the NFL. They climb to the third-highest run rate when they have such a lead. Add to all this that the Lions have only run the third-most plays in the league, and it sums up to 211 passing attempts for Goff, 25th in the league.
However, the Lions are highly efficient, so despite their low play volume, they still have the seventh-most offensive yards. They also produce TDs, scoring 32.9 points per game, the most in the league. As such, they have the lowest yards-per-point average in the league at 11.5.
Goff is efficient as well, logging the ninth-most TDs and ninth-highest FPOE. He ranks first in completion percentage, fifth in adjusted completion percentage, second in QB rating, and fifth in EPA +CPOE composite.
Only one passing-game option has a market share exceeding 15%: Amon-Ra St. Brown at 27%. Otherwise, Goff evenly distributes the football, with seven players hitting between an 8% and 14% share.
Jameson Williams returns from his two-game suspension this week; he should resume his old role as the Lions’ No. 2 WR. It’s a minimal sample size, but Williams’ presence has correlated to reducing Sam LaPorta’s role. It bears mentioning this almost doesn’t make sense; they win in different field areas entirely. However, it is something to keep our eye on.
Houston is seventh in EPA per play but first in defensive success rate. They are fifth in EPA per dropback allowed and 14th in defensive success rate on dropbacks. They have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to QBs and the 17th-fewest fantasy points to WRs.
The Texans produce tremendous pressure, ranking second in pressure rate over expected (PrROE). The Lions should be able to nearly neutralize it, as they rank fourth in PrROE allowed on offense. It’s a clash of the titans in the trenches.
Houston's zone versus man coverage rate is about average, with about two-thirds of their snaps coming from the zone and a third from the man. Like much of the NFL, their most common alignments are Cover 1 and Cover 3 at just under 30% each. They also play Cover 4 at 21.8%, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Goff performs incredibly well against the type and rate of coverage the Texans play, ranking second this week in Fantasy Points’ Matchup Expected Fantasy Points per Dropback model, which is based on which players perform best against the coverages they should expect from their opponent. St. Brown also matches up nicely; this is unsurprising since he is generally good against any coverage. In particular, he is tremendous against Quarters. LaPorta and Williams are in the top five against man coverage; LaPorta is first.
St. Brown plays mainly in the slot, so he is in for a lot of Jalen Pitre; this is not the best matchup, but certainly nothing to avoid. Williams moves all over the formation, so he may see a fair amount of Pitre, Kwame Lassiter, and Derrick Stingley, Jr. None of these are ideal. LaPorta draws a fairly favorable matchup along the interior middle.
The Lions’ backfield is unique in that it is among the most evenly split workloads between two players in the league. Yet, both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are instrumental fantasy assets.
