Quick Slant: SNF is a Heavyweight Title Fight, Whether You Realize it Or Not
Bills @ Ravens, Sunday @ 8:20 PM
So much for the common opinion that the Bills were taking a step back this year; they’ve appeared to be the best team in football over the first three weeks. Then again, they have arguably the best QB in football (Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes may be this generation’s Dan Marino/Joe Montana).
The Bills and Chiefs are in the driver’s seat in the AFC right now; for most of 2023, the team that drove was Baltimore, who narrowly lost a defensive nail-biter of an AFC Championship game against Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Ravens have begun 1-2, but other than a disappointment against Las Vegas in Week 2, they’ve won a game against Dallas, which they dominated, and lost by the measure of a shoe’s toe box against Kansas City on the Thursday night league opener. According to NFL Elo’s Power Rankings, the Bills are No. 1. The Ravens are No. 2. So, even as these two teams are on the opposite poles of the young 2024 AFC standings, this is like a heavyweight fight from another life or an alternate universe, and the ramifications of it seem potentially massive in the tight race to the Super Bowl.
Bills’ Implied Team Total: 22
The Bills enter Sunday night’s game as the league's No. 1 offense in EPA per play; they are also first in offensive success rate, EPA per dropback, and success rate on dropbacks.
They are led by Allen, who has finished as fantasy’s No. 1 QB in three of the past four seasons leading the way. Allen ranks first in Completion percentage over expected (CPOE) + EPA in 2024. He nearly leads in CPOE and EPA independently as well, but Jayden Daniels has only a slightly better CPOE.
Allen also ranks as the fantasy football QB1 in PPR/G, leading in FPOE/G. He is second in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. Allen lacks sheer volume in passing-related counting stats, much owed to two blowout victories. His rushing production is down from previous seasons thus far, but two ground scores have kept him relevant as a rusher; theoretically, his rushing stats will only get better, regressing positively to match his career base rates (unless his stats dovetail because he is aging, which seems unlikely at this point, or his coaches have convinced him to run less frequently).
Anecdotally speaking, the Bills have blown out the Dolphins and Jags in consecutive weeks, and Allen hasn’t had much to do. In Week 1, the Bills played the Cardinals in a close shootout, and Allen was far and away the QB1 for the week. In this one, the Bills enter as underdogs; if they have to rise to the occasion, I would expect Allen to become a more foundational part of the offensive attack; going through him represents Buffalo’s best shot at winning.
Allen's backfield mate, James Cook, is fantasy’s No. 6 RB in 2024, and it feels at least a little flimsy. An incredible three-TD Week 2, filled with big plays and heightened efficiency, has held up slightly better than average to poor opportunity as both a receiver and a rusher. Cook ranks outside the top ten RBs in attempts, targets, routes, snaps, green zone touches, high-value touches, and high-value touch percentage; his 35% yards after contact percentage is second-worst among RBs, and he has a 0% broken tackle percentage on receptions. Even his EP/G is just 20th; instead, his fantasy production is propped up entirely by efficiency stats, which can be very unsticky at this stage in the game. We don’t want to run from high efficiency, but we should understand there is an excellent chance this production is small-sample stuff that will normalize in time.
Baltimore is second in the NFL in defensive EPA per rush and first in defensive rush success rate.
The Ravens have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs to this point. Cook is insulated to some degree by involvement in the passing game. Still, he needs more than 3.0 targets per game to build a high upside through that alone. Cook is likely good but not great in this one.
The target shares in Buffalo are flat and difficult to predict. Only two players exceed 13% market share – Khalil Shakir (20%) and Dalton Kincaid (15%). Cook’s 13% is next, and this is not an overly bad total for an RB. The good news is that Buffalo is tied for the sixth-highest total play volume thus far, stretching these percentages farther than they would otherwise go. Baltimore has allowed the second-most plays this season, making Week 4 a promising place to pick up a higher play volume.
Shakir’s market share isn’t enough to keep pace with the elites; Kincaid’s share is in the right wheelhouse, provided the efficiency remains high. He should have a winnable matchup this week; his most common matchup is expected to be LB Trenton Simpson, who comes with a 61.5 PFF coverage grade. Kincaid ranks just outside the fantasy top 12, but he feels like he belongs and should continue to be played.
