Quick Slant: SNF - The Bills Look Them in the Eyes and Smile, Holding Scissors to the Thread by Which the Niners' Season Hangs
49ers @Bills, Sunday @ 8:20 PM
The forecast for Sunday is pure Buffalo—snowy and blustery, cold cutting through layers of down and wool. Amid the white flakes of an after-dark snow shower illuminated by halogen, Highmark Stadium will be alive under a sea of royal blue and red, breathy sighs, the fragrant aroma of beer and brats, and one of those pink-skinned guys with no shirt. The Bills are a restless tide, never cresting—perennial contenders whose blue-collar ethos has yielded all but Lombardi. Their players are heirs to years of unfulfilled promise; their fans are masters at enduring bitter winters and even bitterer defeats, dating back to the early nineties when they lost four straight Super Bowls. As great as Buffalo has been at their heights, they are better known for a legacy of failure.
The 49ers are a forsaken castle, their spangled memory reserved for generations before; now, like Buffalo, they are icons for the almost. The brilliant auric of their golden casques now represents as much the fleece of tarnished promises as prodigious glory. They have had two Super Bowl losses to the Chiefs in five years, another dating back to the Harbaugh years, three straight NFC Championships—their second streak of its kind in barely over a decade—and all have ended in heartbreak. Their title drought now stretches back to the days of Steve Young and Jerry Rice, so, for all their narrow margins and silver medals, their latest championship is older than that of the Cowboys.
Buffalo and San Francisco, heavyweights bound by a shared history of heartbreak, meet Sunday night in the wind tunnel of Orchard Park just off the dark, haunted edge of Lake Eerie, where 10-15 MPH sustained breezes should slash through the air. The crunch of snow under cleats, the harsh brunt of every clash magnified by frozen gusts, and the weight of myth and dreams swirling like the dancing spirals of autumn leaves. Nothing is at stake, and yet, everything is. It’s just Sunday Night Football, but it's December, and the conclusion to another long season is lurking. Might this be another in a long line of disappointments or the year that ends long suffering?
49ers’ Implied Team Total: 19.5
The Niners feel like a team decimated by bad luck in 2024. They rank tenth in EPA per play and offensive success rate.
Famously, they were without Christian McCaffrey, the reigning AP Offensive Player of the Year, through Week 9 with Achilles tendonitis. Since he has returned, he has been a shell of his 2023 self, when he was the best fantasy RB by a wide margin.
He trails his 2023 self drastically in every pertinent rushing category; his 2024 opportunity is similar to last year in the passing game, although McCaffrey has not yet converted a TD. These developments are somewhat expected for the pragmatist; he didn’t have a camp, preseason, or practice for several weeks into the season. Additionally, he may not only need to shake off rust but continue recovering. For the dreamer, however, these developments are a total bummer. McCaffrey may not be coming to save anyone who has wrecked themselves by holding him.
Whether with or without McCaffrey, the 49ers have been a little worse on the ground than we are perhaps accustomed to. They rank 12th in EPA per rush and 14th in offensive success rate on rushes; a year ago, they were first in each category. Still, conventional wisdom might tell us they will only get better as McCaffrey continues to get loose.
The line creates space to operate, ranking first in PFF run blocking grade and eighth in offensive adjusted yards before contact (YBC)/ATT generated. Buffalo is dreadful in this area defensively, ranking seventh in PFF run defense grade and 30th in defensive adjusted YBC/ATT allowed. Based on adjusted YBC/ATT, the difference between the two sides gives San Francisco the third-most prominent advantage in run blocking for the week’s matchups.
Even so, the Bills rank ninth in EPA per rush allowed and eighth in defensive success rate on rushes, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing fantasy points. Only De’Von Achane has gotten over on them in their past five games.
Much of Achane’s production comes through the air, like McCaffrey, which could be a problem for the Bills, who have allowed the fifth-most receptions and the eighth-most receiving yards to RBs in their past five games. Since his return, McCaffrey ranks second among RBs in receptions, third in target share, and first in receiving yardage. He is tied for fourth since his return in receiving EP among RBs.
San Francisco ranks ninth in EPA per dropback and eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks. The Bills rank seventh in EPA per dropback allowed but just 21st in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
This is the second widest disparity between defensive EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks in the league, with only the Packers more askew in favor of EPA.
This indicates the Bills are good at stopping explosives in the passing game but mediocre at stopping long, sustained drives through the air.
It is officially unknown if the 49ers will be led by Brock Purdy, who is listed as questionable, or backup Brandon Allen, who started a week ago and was already named the contingency starter in case Purdy can’t go in Week 13. Purdy, the reigning fourth-place finisher in MVP voting, has been dealing with a shoulder injury since November 17; he has been limited in practice all week but is considered on the right side of questionable. We should expect a substantial difference between the two.
Purdy has had a slight down year relative to 2023, where he ran a little hot. Still, he ranks eighth in EP, 13th in FPOE, tenth in PPR, eighth in EPA + CPOE composite, and 11th in passing yards. He is almost right in line with his 2023 pace on dropbacks and attempts, but he has seen a reduction in TD rate, corresponding with a rise in INT rate, which accounts for the most significant effects on his efficiency.
He has helped mitigate the effects of this loss in passing efficiency with increased rushing. He has scrambled 37 times already, far beyond his 24 total scrambles a year ago, and already has more rushing yards this year than he did last by almost 50. He also has increased efficiency as a rusher, gaining 5.2 YPC, well above his 3.9 average, and four rushing scores, tied for sixth-most among non-RBs in the NFL.
The 49ers technically have five players with at least a 15% market share in the past six games. This includes Brandon Aiyuk, who played only two games during this sample, and McCaffrey, who has played in three.
Since Aiyuk’s season-ending injury, three players have stood out in the passing game: Jauan Jennings (33%), Deebo Samuel (21%) and George Kittle (20%).
By far, the most efficient has been Kittle, who has the best FPOE among all TEs in the league throughout that period. Kittle is tied for third in percentage of team air yards among TEs, and he trails only Noah Gray in TDs in that span.
Jennings has been the most utilized 49ers WR since Week 8; his 33% target share during that span trails only Malik Nabers in the entire NFL.
The most frustrating presence among the 49ers’ fantasy options has by far been Deebo Samuel. He has had only one usable week since Week 7, ranking as WR3 in Week 10. He would be unplayable if not for his name value; any presumptions that he would ascend to greater heights with the sustained absence of Aiyuk can be reliably put to bed by now.
The Bills play the ninth-most zone defense in the league, and they run a balanced variation of alignments, mostly in line with league averages or below. The only defensive alignment they run to a disproportionate amount is Cover 2 Man, which they run fourth-most. However, this still represents less than five percent of their alignments.
Against the types and rates of coverages the Bills use, Purdy ranks 12th this week in Fantasy Points’ Matchup Expected Points model. Jennings ranks tenth among their passing game options, and Kittle ranks 22nd.
The Bills’ secondary personnel is another matter, and they create challenging assignments. Corners Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson comprise a formidable trio, but the Bills are not worth running from in these matchups. Kittle and Jennings can’t be left on benches, and the upside of all three—Samuel included—makes them tough sits.
We want a weekly ceiling. If we are making our start/sit decision around Samuel and another player, we don’t want to discard the potential Samuel blowup in favor of a slight consistency advantage. We should consider this before we park him, although there are plenty of reasonable scenarios where we can pass him up this week.
One of the most concerning issues for the 49ers this week is that future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams will miss his second consecutive game. It is at least arguable that Allen struggled unduly a week ago due to Williams's absence, who makes a massive difference when he is in the lineup.
When Williams plays, the 49ers score five additional points, throw nearly half the interceptions, and run the ball more effectively. Their winning percentage in games when he plays is around 69%, good for an 11-win pace; in games when he doesn’t, their winning percentage dips to 46%, on pace for fewer than eight wins per season. This week, his absence is one of the biggest stories no one seems to be discussing.
