Quick Slant: The Chiefs and Falcons Face Off in the ATL on SNF
Falcons @ Chiefs, Sunday @ 8:20 PM
The Chiefs have been in nothing but exciting games thus far, winning by the length of a big toe in Week 1 and a last-minute drive aided by an egregious pass interference penalty in Week 2. The Falcons are fresh off an MNF classic, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat or, at the very least, accepting victory from a generous giver. The two converge on Sunday Night Football – another compelling matchup that should hopefully reveal one more clue to help us unravel the NFL 2024 season.
Falcons’ Implied Team Total: 21.5
The Falcons enter Sunday Night’s game with the second-worst offense in the NFL in offensive EPA per play, besting only the hopeless Panthers. They are third-worst in offensive EPA per rush and second-worst in EPA per dropback; by rank, they appear better at passing, although by the numbers, they have been better at rushing. This is a bummer for a team that had higher expectations.
For some time, the narrative has been that the Falcons’ roster was pretty talented, especially in the skill core. Many assumed Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson would improve as the Falcons changed their play-caller and QB this past off-season. That hasn’t fully materialized; two games in, their offense is even a source of anxiety. But the most recent drive for the Falcons provided a sliver of hope.
This season, the offense has seemed almost dysfunctional for seven and a half quarters. In the waning moments of their Week 2 matchup against Philly, the Falcons cut through the Eagles’ defense like a knife through warm butter to pull off an eyebrow-raising victory. We are still in suspense about whether the Falcons figured something out on Monday or had their best drive at a convenient moment.
The most likely scenario is that the Falcons’ offense runs through Robinson on Sunday night–the Falcons rank 27th in the league in PROE.
Robinson ran into a stellar front in Week 1 and came out relatively unscathed. Less is thought of Philly’s run defense, but Robinson had nearly twice the YPC. His involvement in the passing game cushions his floor as much as it increases his upside; he has the magical combination of a high floor and ceiling we crave in a first-round fantasy pick. He has received the fourth-most targets of any RB this year; last year, he received the third-most and was tied for third in receiving market share among RBs, fourth in WOPR, and fourth in AirYAC. Robinson is an excellent receiver out of the backfield; stay tuned to find out if he can become elite. Much of that will hinge on QB Kirk Cousins and new OC Zac Robinson and whether or not they can get the machine humming.
The Chiefs have been beatable on the ground thus far, ranking 29th in defensive EPA per rush. They were 27th a year ago. The Chiefs mostly kept the band together from 2023 to 2024, and their most significant loss was L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed is a good run defender for a corner, but his reputation is better as a disruptive ball-hawk in pass coverage.
Without him this year, the Chiefs have been ordinary in pass coverage thus far. They did a fair job containing Ja’Marr Chase and Zay Flowers, but TEs Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki chopped them to bits.
The Falcons’ target distribution hasn’t been as narrow as we would have liked, and Pitts is still kind of a no-show except for a TD in Week 1, which helped those who sunk a high investment on him to breathe easier. Thus far, Ray Ray McCloud is the biggest surprise; he had a massive Week 1 target share, though he almost assuredly won’t keep this rate up.
Those who drafted Kyle Pitts hope he won’t keep his pace either; so far, Pitts has a paltry 12% share. If the Chiefs are indeed flawed at covering TEs, this could be a good place to silence his doubters; for now, they grow louder. Drake London is at 20%, which is about the minimum we would want from him; he’s still in a Garrett Wilson-type holding pattern for the time being.
