Quick Slant: TNF Is the Tale of Two Surprises (But for Different Reasons)
49ers @ Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM
San Francisco was expected to win the NFC. They were supposed to contend for the Super Bowl. Instead, they have been decimated by injuries and are 2-3. Nothing has gone to plan so far, but almost no one truly believes San Francisco will fall out of contention. They are favored by 3 ½ points against Seattle, who leads the division, and they continue to get healthier. Any fantasy player knows Christian McCaffrey has been out all season thus far, and his future is still uncertain. But San Francisco has dealt with injuries to George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Yetur Gross-Matos, Elijah Mitchell, and Dre Greenlaw. Slowly but surely, the stars are rolling back into the fold. The 49ers are now the distant steel wail of a locomotive across the tranquility of a clear sky, the whispered heartbeat of a low and steady chug – something powerful, yet unseen, but inevitable.
Seattle has been a pleasant surprise. The Seahawks have surged to a 3-2 record to become the unexpected leader in the division. And yet, the reverse is true; no one accepts them as a contender. The primary reason? Denver, New England, and a Tagovailoa-less Miami – the three teams they’ve defeated. There are no quality wins; the jury is still out on the Giants, but Seattle was expected to beat New York, and New York beat them. And so they march on, still unproven, having slayed windmills, not giants. They could be like Toro Moreno, the show-pony boxer from the classic film The Harder They Fall, manipulated into believing he is a rising star as his promoters arrange fixed victories. Along the way, he fully believes his hype, but in the end, he encounters a true professional and gets thrashed, leading him to confront the truth that his accomplishments have been hollow and false.
The Niners give Seattle a chance to test itself, and the Seahawks give San Francisco a chance to become itself. Or will each continue to surprise?
49ers’ Implied Team Total: 26.5
The 49ers have a good offense, which is no shock. Kyle Shanahan is almost the poster boy for a high-functioning offense. He is well known as one of the most effective play-callers in the league, which he’s shown at virtually every stop, especially after he has been with a team for many years.
This year, the 49ers are eighth in EPA per play and offensive success rate, tenth in EPA per dropback, and fifth in passing success rate.
Last year, Brock Purdy had the highest FPOE per game among QBs, nearly eclipsing 100 FPOE for the season. He was fifth in passing yards and third in TDs, yet he still finished seventh in fantasy. He has no rushing component, so this is more or less his max; as a regression candidate, it seemed predictable he would be overdrafted. However, FFPC drafters kept him in proper perspective as a Tier 2 pocket passer, taken after the runners and the high-high talents in the pocket at QB13.
Massive regression did come. He dropped off in efficiency and TD rate, yet he ranks QB12.
At this point, Purdy is a regression candidate the other way around based on TDs/YDs regression. This is without factoring in what should probably be considered: a QB in a Shanahan offense should have a slightly higher base rate for TDs/YDs because Shanahan systems have historically led to overachievement in FPOE. At this point, Purdy is a buy in managed leagues.
The Seahawks are a perfect ten, ranking tenth in success rate and EPA per play allowed. They also rank tenth in success rate against the pass and in EPA per dropback allowed. Helmed by first-year HC Mike McDonald, who was defensive coordinator for Baltimore a year ago; the Ravens were second in EPA per play allowed and EPA per dropback allowed.
