Quick Slant: TNF - Somewhere Between a Rout and Shock; Can the Commanders Actually Keep Pace?

Commanders @ Eagles, Thursday @ 8:15 PM

Thursday Night Football arrives as a welcome surprise: the Eagles, division royalty on paper, face an intrepid Commanders side that's transformed from long shot to full-blown threat as they've sprinted up the standings in the East. The Eagles are favored by a mere three and a half points, a razor-thin spread that speaks volumes about how far and quickly the Commanders have come. This one stands as a test for each club. The Eagles finally want to assert themselves as a champion rather than ring-bearers at another's wedding. The Commanders are out to storm the fortress of the division's long-held elite and see a new sunrise dawn in the East.

For all the ebbs and flows of America's Tease over the past decade-plus, Philadelphia has been the division's truest juggernaut, whether measured by its consistency since the downfall of the Cowboys' Nineties dynasty or the briefer Nick Sirianni era alone. This year, Philly has left the mis-evaluated Cowboys in its dust, where they belong. And New York, even sadder and more mediocre than that, is where Brian Daboll is walking The Mile.

A step behind the Eagles, however, lurks the plucky underdog. Led by rookie phenomenon Jayden Daniels, Washington has shattered preseason expectations. In a remarkable transformation, the team has swiftly evolved from hope to hype, all within weeks under the leadership of trusty new headman Dan Quinn. The Commanders started strong but have since grown stronger; coming up short a week ago as home favorites seemed like a downfall relative to their monumental rise, but a win here would put them right back in first place and cast the doubters aside. 

Philadelphia seeks to cement its reign; Washington wants to topple it. One team has been here before, the other is charting fresh territory, and only one will leave with an edge as thin as a knife blade.

Commanders' Implied Team Total: 22.5

The Commanders rank second in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. They rank second in EPA per dropback and fifth in offensive success rate on dropbacks.

Daniels has been the engine for the Commanders' offense, and he represents a massive improvement over last year's Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett experiment. Daniels is currently the clear frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year and is also considered a dark horse candidate for MVP, currently pacing eighth in the Vegas odds. No rookie has won the MVP since Jim Brown in 1957, but if Daniels can drive Washington to victory this week, it could significantly enhance his chances.

Only four weeks ago, Daniels was second in fantasy scoring among QBs; now, he is down to sixth. There should be very little cause for concern. Daniels was off to a great start against Carolina in Week 7 with 52 early rushing yards before a rib injury forced him out early in the first quarter; all he's culpable for in that span is one drab game against one of the better NFL defenses in Pittsburgh last week, where, even then, a TD was called back by a penalty. His other two games in between have kept pace with the dominance he established early. Toss in surges by players like Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts, who have been adding fistfuls of TDs over the past four weeks, and Daniels has slid down the table a bit, but he is still among fantasy's best.

Even with Daniels's monumental success thus far in his infant career and his fulfilled sleeper potential in fantasy football, there is more meat on the bone. Daniels ranks near the bottom of the NFL in TDs compared to the league average for TDs/YDs, where he is about three TDs behind pace; this includes his rushing yardage and TDs.

Of course, much of the appeal for Daniels in fantasy is his rushing ability – he ranks second among QBs in rushing yardage – but he ranks in the top ten in several passing categories: EPA + CPOE composite (2^nd), QB rating (9^th), (completion percentage (8^th), adjusted completion percentage (9^th), YPA (6^th), INTs (T-6^th), first downs (9^th), turnover worthy play percentage (3^rd), and PFF Grade (3^rd). He is not comparable to Anthony Richardson or Justin Fields, where most of their fantasy potential ties to rushing; Daniels is far more like a rookie Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. They are the only three rookie QBs with 20 PPR/G, 200 passing yards/G, and 40 rushing yards/G since 2000. Even then, it already seems pretty inarguable that Daniels is a better thrower of the football.

His most reliable weapon on offense has been Terry McLaurin. He is pacing for the best fantasy finish of his career and currently ranks sixth in PPR. McLaurin is on track for his best seasonal output in receptions, yardage, and yards per reception and his second-best season in YPRR and aDOT; he is only one TD shy of his career best mark.