Quick Slant: TNF - The Browns and Steelers Renew the AFC's Oldest Rivalry
Steelers @ Browns, Thursday @ 8:15 PM
When the All-American Football Conference folded after the 1949 season, the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Colts merged into the NFL, and the Browns were dropped into the American Division along with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns had been the only champion the AAFC had ever known, winning four straight from 1946 to 1949, and they immediately won the NFL championship in 1950’s inaugural season, giving them, in a way, five straight. In all, they won seven titles leading up to 1964. Most of us know how the story goes from there.
Once a pillar of innovation, influence, and success, the Browns have been on a tour of ineptitude that has now stretched over 60 calendar years. Along with Chicago’s Sid Luckman, Cleveland’s Hall of Fame QB Otto Graham split the claim of pre-Unitas GOAT for most observers of their time; the Browns have seemingly sought the next Graham ever since. Their vector has been ever-downward, and still they wait.
One hundred thirty-five miles away, a fellow Rust Belt industrial town took the opposite trajectory. Emanating from humble beginnings in the NFL’s earliest days, the Steelers, with gaudy bright horizontal stripes and sickening pale yellow pants, looked almost objectively like escaped convicts; their play was worse than their look. With a .451 winning percentage from 1933 to 1968, before Chuck Noll arrived, the Steelers had one playoff appearance and finished last 14 times; they were the worst team in football.
Yet, after that, they rose to the highest heights, winning six Lombardi trophies, tied for the most of all-time. They also have the fourth-most wins since the merger and are currently riding a 21-year streak without a losing season, the longest such streak in NFL history (which will undoubtedly flip to 22 within the month). The histories of these teams create a perfect antiparallel, with the Browns tumbling from greatness they’ve never regained at almost the precise moment the Steelers soared out of a futility they’ve avoided since.
The AFC’s oldest rivalry doesn’t need a dramatic stage or a high-stakes backdrop to matter – it’s always mattered. The Steelers, at 8-2, are helmed by a rejuvenated Russell Wilson; the 2-8 Browns have likely flipped the page on the Deshaun Watson era and turned, for now, to Jameis Winston. Nothing matters come Thursday night; one team will be slathered in defeat, and the other will feast on the suffering; whether it is for cruelty or chaos, this will be trophy enough.
Browns’ Implied Team Total: 16
The Browns and Steelers have by far the lowest over/under of any combination of teams in Week 12. The Browns have the lowest implied team total this week.
The Browns rank 31st in EPA per play and dead last in offensive success rate.
They also rank 31st in EPA per dropback and 32nd in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
They are now led by Jameis Winston, who took the reins from the injured Deshaun Watson (technically from Dorian Thompson-Robinson) in Week 7. Since his first complete game as a starter, Winston has attempted 44.3 passing attempts/G, completing 27.7/G for 321.3 passing yards/G, 2 TD/G, and an INT/G. Winston ranks sixth in EP/G and 15th in FPOE/G during that span. These are encouraging statistics, especially considering Winston’s total pretext, which has led him from first-round pick to career backup in five years – a position he has remained in for four more.
He is the platonic ideal of a gunslinger; his 2019 is legendary for its unique combination of simultaneous world-class yardage accumulation – 5,109 yards, tenth-highest in a single season all-time – and INT accumulation – 30 INTs, tied for seventh-highest in a single season (including pre-merger stats). This is fine for fantasy, as we penalize INTs far less than we reward TDs. However, players who keep up this type of mistake-proneness don’t tend to last long as starters; seeing Winston on a 17-INT pace through three games is strangely welcomed.
Of course, this is still a dreadful frequency in any other context, and these are only the INTs that have been converted; Winston has a 4.1% turnover-worthy-play percentage, tied for seventh-worst. His adjusted completion percentage ranks just 35th, his PFF grade is 17th, and he has been ranked 22nd in EPA + CPOE composite since Week 8.
Furthermore, since the Browns are so far out of the running, they may be incentivized to take a closer look at second-year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson at some point. Kevin Stefanski’s job is probably safe because of his two NFL Coach of the Year awards since taking over in Cleveland in 2020, so they could conceivably disguise a soft, easily justifiable tank in the name of long-term progress. Even if they recognize Thompson-Robinson is not a serious NFL QB.
It is possibly underreported that the Browns may be just as incentivized to continue to see Winston. They will be strapped for money over multiple seasons due to Watson’s albatross of guaranteed cash, and returning Watson seems doomed. Winston may be about the best Cleveland could do to set itself up to win football games in 2025 or even 2026.
Since Winston took over, the Browns have played worse defensively, so their rate of Pythagorean wins is not as high; also, Winston throws more picks per game than Watson and Thompson-Robinson combined to throw before him.
However, the Browns have had a far more potent passing offense in the aggregate, attempting over six additional pass attempts/G, converting five additional completions/G, scoring over two more points/G, taking fewer sacks/G, and logging nearly twice as many passing YDs and passing TDs/G.
The Browns have maintained the sixth-highest pass rate over expected (PROE) all year, though, since Week 8, they have been up 4% in neutral pass rate. They are tied for first in the NFL in offensive plays per 60 minutes and fifth-fastest in seconds to snap at 25.5. Furthermore, they were sixth in seconds to snap and had the most plays per 60 minutes a year ago, so this is their nature. One significant difference between last year and this, in terms of the Browns being able to dictate the pace, is they led the NFL in time of possession by a wide margin a year ago; this year, their defense is less impenetrable.
More important to fantasy players than Winston directly is the effect he has on the Browns’ pass-catchers, who have suddenly come alive. David Njoku’s PPR has increased by over four, and Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, and Jerry Jeudy have each increased by at least eight PPR/G.
