Quick Slant: TNF - The Rams Are Starting to Feel a Little More Like Themselves
Vikings @ Rams, Thursday @ 8:15 PM
The Vikings have already exceeded what many thought was possible for them in 2024. In August, ESPN ranked them 23rd in their pre-season power rankings. Their over/under on wins was around 6.5, and at the beginning of September, odds were set at 40-1 for the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. Scour the internet, and you’ll find plenty of preseason fodder from analysts calling for the Sam Darnold surprise; there were whispers from the shadows – bold prediction pieces and whatnot, sure – but also, you could find it from thoughtful and careful analysts: this would be the perfect environment for Darnold to succeed. With this line, these weapons, this coaching staff, and with Darnold a few years older and more mature? A low, faint blip on the RADAR was percolating from the deep.
More was thought of the Rams, though, who had gotten their overachieving done a year ago; it turns out, when they finally applied themselves to a couple of drafts instead of turning picks into veteran linebackers, they proved pretty decent at it. Not only was their 2023 class terrific, the crown jewel of which was a fifth-round pick who put up some of the stupidest numbers ever by a rookie WR, but an undersized reserve RB from the 2022 class cut to the control room and became a star. This year, after an off-season to congeal, they were supposed to take the next step forward; instead, the Rams were decimated by injuries before they could even begin. The line, thought to be a strength, was run through a filter, and only two starters popped out on the other side to start the year. Their dynamic duo at receiver – arguably the best pair in the league – almost immediately hit the IR. By now, they are 2-4 and spend most of their time trying to keep Matthew Stafford from breaking in half before our eyes; I suppose, based on Tuesday's reports, they’ve also engaged in the habit of trying to sell off Cooper Kupp for a second-round pick.
It hasn’t gone as planned for LA, but they still have plenty of guts. They won’t lay down for anyone, much less one of the elevated disciples of Sean McVay, Vikings' HC Kevin O’Connell. But sometimes, it’s not just the fight in the dog; it can also be the dog coming into the brawl with two broken paws and The Bloat.
Vikings’ Implied Team Total: 25.75
The Vikings are average on offense, 16th in EPA per play, and 13th in offensive success rate. They are 11th in EPA per dropback and 13th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
They are led by Sam Darnold, previously left for dead but reanimated by a fresh start after rookie J.J. McCarthy's season-ending meniscus tear. Darnold was quite the story as the season began, but the momentum has slowed somewhat. His TD rate was always out in front of league base rates, and he looked like a negative regression candidate. As we look at it today in full context, it is clear that his production is still held up by inordinate TD production.
Darnold's high volume of TDs obviously raises his FPOE and QBR, which are correlated to TD scoring (and, consequently, PPR). Most of the other stats seem average or below average, which is what we might have expected from Darnold before the season began. According to a basic TDs/YDs regression model, he has scored five TDs over the base rate; this adds 20 total season-long PPR (or 30 in 6-point-per-passing-TD). If we were to remove this from his total, he would be 23rd in PPR among QBs today.
Of course, he is in Kevin O’Connell’s system, a shoot-off of the Shanahan tree, and this scheme breeds added efficiency. But even if he executes just over league average, Darnold is still overperforming. The good news for him is that the upcoming schedule is favorable, beginning here and now with LA.
The Rams' defense ranks 26th in EPA per play allowed and 27th in defensive success rate. It ranks 26th in EPA per dropback allowed and 24th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Rams play zone coverage at the tenth-highest rate in the league, although they allow the second-most fantasy points per dropback from zone. Their most common alignment is Cover 3, which they run 39.3% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. They also run the second-most Cover 6.
Darnold is pretty average against Cover 3, ranking 12th. He is worst in the league against Cover 6, not even registering a tenth of a point per dropback, although he has only faced Cover 6 on 7.4% of his dropbacks, so this rate is at a smaller sample size than usual.
One strength of the Rams’ defense is their defensive pressure. They rank fourth in pressure rate over expected. However, they have only converted a 9% sack rate, which ties for last with the Falcons. This means 27% of the Rams’ pressure does not result in a sack, giving LA the worst sack luck in the NFL.
Admittedly, I haven’t researched this, but this seems like an intuitively natural disproportion that should generate positive regression, and the Rams will likely convert closer to the league-average rate than they have been. The Vikings allow a high amount of pressure to their opponents, ranking 27th in offensive pressure rate despite the perception that they were one of the better lines in the league before the season began. Thus far this year, Darnold has handled pressure well, logging a 107.2 QB rating when not under pressure and a 95.6 rating when pressured, one of the better disparities in the league with and without pressure.
Of course, Darnold has one of the best weapons in the league to throw the ball to: all-everything superstar WR Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is one of just five receivers with a target share of 30% or more; this is counting the Rams’ Kupp, who has only played in two games.
Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones are the only three receiving options in Minnesota with at least a 15% target share, with Jefferson firmly (and rightfully) in the lead.
The receiving options aren't particularly great against the types of defenses the Rams run except Jefferson; this is no surprise because he is good at everything. It should also be said that neither Jefferson nor Addison have struggled against Cover 3 or Cover 6 zone defense.
