Quick Slant: Two Remarkably Similar Teams (to Varying Degrees of Success) Vie for the NFC South Lead on TNF
Buccaneers @ Falcons, Thursday @ 8:15 PM
The Buccaneers and Falcons come into Week 5’s matchup with the division lead on the line. The 2-2 Falcons were the NFC South’s off-season pet after they added a new coaching staff and the top free agent QB to a roster many already believed in; they got off to a slow start through almost two complete games, but they caught fire on their last drive against Philly in Week 2, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Since then, they have looked much more like the squad people had envisioned, losing a close game to the world champs, then winning a close one against their biggest rival. And what is more encouraging is they seem like a side that should only get better as new OC Zac Robinson gets his bearings and new QB Kirk Cousins ramps back up from an Achilles injury he sustained not even a year ago.
The 3-1 Buccaneers finished in the league’s Elite Eight in 2023 after dismantling the Eagles in the Wild Card round in January; they picked up where they left off last week, once again drawing out that rare glimpse of insecurity from the Eagles’ frat boy head coach Nick Sirianni, who had no answers. If the Bucs could play the Eagles weekly, they would win the Super Bowl yearly. However, against the Falcons, Tampa Bay split the past two closely contested meetings. In a division that seems suddenly more competent than it did and suddenly closer than it was, TNF could be a critical game in the story of the 2024 NFC South. With a mere 1.5-point spread, it could also be a close one.
Buccaneers’ Implied Team Total: 21
The Buccaneers are 15th in EPA per play but 10th in success rate. Generally speaking, this means they are better at moving the sticks and sustaining drives while worse at explosives. Their passing mechanisms typify this; the Bucs are 16th in EPA per dropback and fifth in success rate on dropbacks.
Last year, the inverse was almost true; under OC Dave Canales, now the HC in Carolina, the Bucs were eighth in EPA per dropback and 16th in success rate on dropbacks. As an extension, QB Baker Mayfield had 8.6 air yards per attempt last year, tied for seventh among QBs with at least 50 pass attempts. This year, Mayfield is dead last—35th of 35 players with 50 attempts—at 5.5 air yards per attempt.
Last year, Mike Evans was at 14.1 air yards/target. This year, he’s at 9.7. Last year, Chris Godwin was at an 8.9 air yards/target clip. This year, he is at 6.1. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are each in the 15 air yards/target range, but they combine for just 13% of the share. Evans’ aDOT is down from 15.1 to 11.7; Godwin’s is down from 10.3 to 5.8 as he becomes Jarvis Landry before our very eyes.
Tampa is generally playing much more conservatively under new OC Liam Coen. Deep shots are down nearly eight percentage points, and intermediate attempts are down over three. Consequently, short passes are up over seven percentage points, and the Bucs throw behind the line of scrimmage over three percentage points more often.
