Rico Dowdle and Barely Being Right
This isn't a dynasty article. It's a redraft article. And a best ball article. But it's not a dynasty article.
With that said, let's talk about dynasty.
You have to be active in dynasty leagues, or your team will stagnate. But the stakes are high. A good trade can pay off over multiple seasons.
But mistakes stick with you.
That makes dynasty great at teaching lessons. And one of the big lessons I've learned is that you want to put as little pressure on yourself as possible to be right.
Barely Being Right in the Trade Market
In superflex startup drafts last year, Tua Tagovailoa frequently went ahead of Anthony Richardson.
But Tagovailoa drafters needed to be a lot more right than Richardson drafters.
Tua was coming off a career year; in 2022, he posted 19.1 half-PPR points per game. But concussions curtailed his season, and he had yet to be signed to a long-term deal entering 2023.
Tua's price was understandable to a degree—QBs are coveted in superflex. But in order for him to gain value, he needed to stay healthy, have a great season, and sign a new contract. Drafters needed to be right.
As luck would have it, Tua stayed healthy and signed a new contract this offseason. But his 2023 season was good, not great. He played a full 17 games and posted career highs in passing yards and passing TDs, but his fantasy scoring dropped to 18.1 points per game.
Still, Tua had a solidly productive year, finishing QB9.
His ADP has fallen by more than a round.
Tua drafters got almost everything they needed out of 2023. And yet, the 26-year-old newly-minted franchise QB is now significantly cheaper than he was a year ago.
If this much went right and Tagovailoa still lost value... it seems pretty clear that this bet was tilted to the downside.
On the other hand, Anthony Richardson's 2023 season was over before it started. He was injured twice in four games, finally getting shut down for shoulder surgery. When on the field, he flashed the wild inaccuracy that created mega-bust risk for the Indianapolis Colts.
But the fantasy community didn't seem to notice Richardson's inaccuracy... at all. Instead, they were captivated by his immense rushing potential and ability to make plays downfield. Turns out there aren't a lot of point-per-completion leagues out there.
Richardson's rookie season was a fantasy disaster.
He's now a first round startup pick.
If a player can play just four NFL games before getting hurt and significantly rise in value... that bet was clearly tilted to the upside.
Barely Being Right in Redraft
Dynasty is a very different game from redraft and best ball.
In dynasty, we aren't limited to predicting player outcomes; we also need to predict market perception of these players. That's what made Richardson's rise predictable.
Entering 2023, we could look ahead to 2024 and ascertain that a second-year incumbent starter with a cannon arm and elite rushing potential was going to be highly sought after. Richardson couldn't bomb. But he only needed to do enough to keep that narrative alive. The rest was upside. Ultimately, Richardson didn't give us a ton to go on last year... and he's going shortly after Lamar Jackson in best ball drafts.
In best ball or redraft, the goal is simpler. We need to pick the players who score points.
If players gain value after the season, that's good in that it's generally a reflection of healthy and productive seasons that finished on a high note. But our Richardson best ball teams still crashed and burned last year.
However, it's still helpful to understand market perception of these bets.
What is the market pricing in? What is it not pricing in?
Because, just like in dynasty, we'd like to find spots where we barely need to be right.
Let's be like kinda-sorta right and still win all the money—sound good?
