Rookie running backs are fantasy football playoff league-winners. Playoff production has an outsized impact on your best ball tournament results, as 70% of your team's expected value comes from Weeks 16-17. The back-weighted production offered by rookie RBs in the weeks that matter most is a feature – not a bug — that drafters can exploit.

Last week, we predicted where rookie quarterbacks will be drafted in Best Ball Mania, as chasing ADP Closing Line Value is one of the best predictors of roster success.

In this second installment of our Rookie Risers and Fallers series, we'll identify which rookie RBs are poised to rise or fall after the NFL Draft - including the most undervalued player in all of best ball. By getting ahead of these post-draft ADP shifts, we can gain a significant edge in best ball drafts happening right now like Underdog's The Big Board and other pre-NFL Draft tournaments

2024: The RB Gap Year

The only thing we know for sure about the NFL Draft is that it’s going to shake up the running back positional landscape. In 2024, 70% of rookies (across all positions) had their ADPs shift by at least one round after the NFL Draft. For RBs, landing spot especially matters for immediate production. Without knowing landing spots, talent is our best predictor of a rookie RBs draft capital, on-field efficiency, and future opportunity. 

2024 was a particularly poor rookie RB class. No rookie RB was drafted in the top-100 picks of Best Ball Mania, and Bucky Irving was the only rookie RB with a positive advance rate (23.7%). Yet, these underwhelming results were largely anticipated by the market. Per Mock Draft Database’s 2024 Consensus Big Board, the first RB wasn’t expected to be drafted until the end of round 2 (Jonathan Brooks, pick 62). Just four other RBs were projected to be top-100 picks (Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Jaylen Wright, Marshawn Lloyd). Not surprisingly, fantasy drafters weren’t very excited about drafting rookie RBs in the 2024 Big Board, with Trey Benson being the only rookie RB with a top-100 ADP – and that was at pick 98.9.

The 2025 Rookie RB Class Adds Generational Talent and Historic Depth

The 2025 rookie RB class stands in a tier of its own. To find a comparable class, we must look back to 2017’s group that included Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon – a class that predated modern best ball tournaments. The market is recognizing this historic class, as outside of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs (2023), the 2025 rookie RBs are being drafted earlier at every position rank than any class in recent memory. 

While 2023 and 2025 are both headlined by a generational talent at the top (Bijan Robinson vs Ashton Jeanty), 2025 blows 2023 out of the water by unprecedented depth.

Despite 2024’s uninspiring rookie RB class, its standout WR class shined even brighter after hitting landing spot jackpots. The highly regarded 2025 RBs could see similar meteoric ADP rises with favorable team destinations.

2025 Rookie Running Backs: Predicting ADP Risers and Fallers

Whether it’s building out your Zero RB room or drafting playoff difference-makers, correctly investing in the historically talented 2025 rookie RB class could deliver season-defining returns. The inherent unpredictability of the unknown black box rookies creates pricing inefficiencies that we can exploit for substantial edges. 

Our goal here is to predict how the Underdog market – no one can predict DraftKings –  will react to the Post-NFL Draft rookie RB ADP shift. Pairing Pat Kerrane’s comprehensive breakdown of the Tiers 1-3, Tiers 4-5, and Tiers 6-8 running backs with these market predictions will help you draft good players while getting ahead of ADP movement in Pre-NFL Draft Best Ball Tournaments. 

Players will be listed in order of Big Board ADP. Note that “Dubner’s Pre-NFL Draft Exposure” combines both Underdog and DraftKings, as I’m located in New York. 

Tier 1: Generational Talent

Ashton Jeanty

The Big Board ADP: 12.4

Widely regarded as a generational prospect, Jeanty belongs in the Saquon Barkley-Bijan Robinson-Todd Gurley discussion. He’s frequently compared to Maurice Jones-Drew, and on The Late-Round Perspectives podcast Thor Nystrom recently comped Jeanty to LaDainian Tomlinson.

Jeanty’s blue chip talent has generated serious top-10 NFL Draft capital buzz. And quite frankly, for a talent of Jeanty’s caliber, his exact draft capital matters less than his landing spot. Jeanty projects as a home run best ball pick at the consensus landing spots, including 6th overall to the Raiders (current mock consensus), 10th to the Bears (Ben Johnson’s dream Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery duo in one player), 12th to the Cowboys, or even the Broncos at 20 if he slides. In these landing spots, the best ball ADP market would ultimately settle in the mid-to-late first round, and I personally wouldn’t blink if you vaulted him into legitimate consideration at the 1.03, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley.

Using Daniel Racz’s backfield fragility tiers as a proxy for available opportunity, Jeanty’s post-draft ADP floor projects at the 2-3 turn even in sub-optimal landing spots, barring a shocking Falcons Michael Penix-type of selection (e.g. 49ers).  

Jeanty’s realistic ADP comps range from rookie year Saquon Barkley (ADP 7.6), Bijan Robinson (8.5), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8.0). His floor likely falls between rookie year Najee Harris (18.9) and Leonard Fournette (28.3).

Best Ball Mania ADP Prediction: Riser to the late first-round. In most scenarios, Jeanty settles as a backend first-round value, though his exact ADP would be influenced by market factors unrelated to Jeanty’s inherent value. For example, if Christian McCaffrey appears completely healthy by August and climbs to the early first-round, the resulting first-round RB traffic jam could impact Jeanty. Additionally, drafters prioritizing the end of the elite WR tier could decide to clear out the Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, pushing Jeanty around the 1-2 turn. 

Dubner’s Pre-NFL Draft Exposure:  Priority target. Currently at 17.4%.

Tier 2: Foundational Backs

Omarion Hampton

The Big Board ADP: 43.9

Hampton cemented his RB2 status in the class after posting back-to-back seasons with dominator ratings over 80%, and an impressive combine where the workout warrior ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 221 lbs (89th percentile speed score). His size-speed combination and college production as a dominant runner and capable receiver generate compelling player comps. 

The most bullish aspect of Hampton’s fantasy profile is the momentum building around his NFL Draft capital with consensus pointing towards his name being the second RB called on Day 1 (Mock Draft Database Consensus Mock Draft at 20 to the Broncos, Big Board rank of 30, and Grinding The Mocks Expected Draft Position of 23.6). Although Hampton’s ADP has crept up as the first-round buzz has built, his opening ADP in the mid-fifth round created a strong anchoring effect. If The Big Board opened today, Hampton would already be drafted at the 3-4 turn – somewhere between rookie year ADP comps of Josh Jacobs (34.0) and Breece Hall (48.8).

A dream-landing spot like the Broncos at 20 could push Hampton toward rookie year Najee Harris territory (2021 ADP 18.9, equating to a 2025 2-3 turn selection after adjusting for WR-inflation thanks to these guys). The committee-based floor (e.g. Steelers at 21) is falling to the mid-fifth.

Best Ball Mania ADP Prediction: Riser to the mid-third round. The NFL Draft and opening of Best Ball Mania will provide the ADP reset moment Hampton needs to reach his proper value of where he should have been drafted all along. 

Dubner’s Pre-NFL Draft Exposure: Priority target. Currently at 21%

Tier 3: Day 2 Running Backs

Be sure to catch up on Pat Kerrane’s breakdown of Tiers 1-3.

TreVeyon Henderson

The Big Board ADP: 61.7