The Seven Most Mispriced Players on Underdog
I'm very excited to welcome Michael Dubner to the Legendary Upside squad. You may know Dubner from his work at RotoViz, his Best Ball Exposures Tracker, Best Ball Tournament Comparison Tool, and his collaboration with Peter Overzet on several YouTube videos. When I started branching out from redraft and dynasty and really diving into best ball, Dubner was one of the writers I trusted to get me up to speed. His insights should help us all level up this offseason.
-Pat
The Seven Most Mispriced Players on Underdog
I tried my hardest to hold out of the super early best ball drafts. I tried. And I failed. The best ball gods have officially sent me full throttle into the 2025 draft season. In this article, we'll explore the 7 most mispriced players in these early Underdog best ball drafts, listed in order of ADP.
1. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: The Opportunity Cost Inflection Point
My opinions on Elite QBs have evolved over the years. With dual-threat QBs who can actually separate and win weeks, we have to consider Elite QBs in Best Ball Mania style tournaments. My current rule of thumb is I am willing to draft Elite QBs once the opportunity cost of the skill-position players drops. The opportunity cost inflection point is subjective, but for me, that threshold currently occurs around the Mike Evans-Xavier Worthy-Devonta Smith range in the early 4th round. Unfortunately, that means I will rarely draft Josh Allen (30.6) and Lamar Jackson (33.4).
However, Jayden Daniels (39) and Jalen Hurts (43.7) are going just after the opportunity cost inflection point, and therefore I’m mixing them in on my teams. They offer the Elite QB spike-week potential, but at a more palatable draft position that doesn’t force you to miss out on elite skill position talent.
Dubner’s Recommendation: Target the Elite QBs after the (subjective) skill-position inflection point.
2. Jalen McMillan Is On the Wrong Side of the Rashod Bateman Cliff Line
Last year, McMillan was one of my most drafted players. Being honored with the Ship Chasing clip was the cherry on top.
2024 was a mixed bag for McMillan. He finished as the WR60, but it was really a tale of two halves. During the fantasy regular season, McMillan averaged just 5.5 fantasy points per game but was cheap enough (2024 ADP 12.03) to end with a perfectly average advance rate (16.7%). He then went scorched earth from Week 14-on, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game and ending the shipchasing curse.
McMillan’s strong finish to 2024 has early Underdog drafters selecting him with an enthusiastic ADP of 77.9 (6.08). McMillan would normally be a player I’m bullish on as a Year-2 WR breakout candidate.
The big question mark for McMillan’s 2025 outlook comes down to Chris Godwin’s eventual landing stop. With Godwin healthy in Weeks 1-7, McMillan averaged just 22 routes per game, which spiked to 30.4 routes per game from Week 8 on. This split is likely multifactorial, with both the general rookie year progression and Chris Godwin’s health both contributing. Blair Andrews found that the major driver of the Year-2 WR breakout is the increased opportunity, particularly an increase in routes. McMillan will certainly see more playing time than he did at the start of his rookie year, but Godwin’s status on the team will have a significant impact on McMillan’s routes per game. Do the Buccaneers find a way to re-sign the veteran who averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game through the first 7-weeks before suffering a season-ending ankle injury? Or does Godwin find a new home?
McMillan’s current rank reasonably balances his exciting Year-2 breakout possibility with his concerning first 13-weeks. He’s correctly going after the locked-in WR1-2s, potential 1st round WRs and exciting RB prospects. McMillan then kicks off a new tier of WR3-4s that includes the likes of Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers, and Khalil Shakir. Sure, I agree with drafters that McMillan’s Year-2 profile is more exciting than those names and deserves to be at the front of that tier, but let’s not blind ourselves into thinking that McMillan is a fundamentally different type of bet.
Ultimately, McMillan kicks off a new tier, which makes him a little overpriced almost by default.
Dubner’s Recommendation: Slightly underweight. That’s a lot of words in a “the most mispriced players” article for the conclusion to not be a more aggressive exposure position. My reason for including him here is I think many similarly minded drafters (e.g. those that read Leg Up, ShipChasing, and RotoViz) would normally be bullish on this profile. Therefore, I am suggesting patience with McMillan until Godwin signs. I would rather miss the good McMillan price if Godwin leaves and have to catch up at a slightly more expensive price, than be overweight McMillan if Godwin resigns.
3. Isiah Pacheco Is The Worst Pick On The Board
Pacheco appeared to be on track to be a solid RB2, scoring 14.8 and 13.6 points in the first 2-weeks, before fracturing his fibula and missing the majority of the season. Pacheco struggled in his return, ultimately seeing his opportunity share shrink. Perhaps the most concerning element is that he lost that opportunity to a washed up Kareem Hunt. It wasn’t an exciting young RB taking the job, rather it was the Chiefs telling us they were desperate for literally anyone other than Pacheco. By the playoffs, Pacheco was completely phased out, averaging just 5 touches per game.
On the one hand, the Chiefs might give Pacheco a pass for 2024, as he was returning from injury. On the other hand, the NFL is a cruel beast. While Pacheco is a good story for a 7th-round pick, the Chiefs have very little invested in him and have already shown a desire to move on. Pacheco is an early-down runner without much pass-catching involvement, and the Chiefs have one of the highest red zone pass rates. The Chiefs are one of the most likely teams to draft an RB in this deep rookie class, and a day 1 or day 2 pick could be a knockout punch to Pacheco’s fantasy value.
Pacheco is a dead RB walking. Seriously, who is actually drafting him?
Dubner’s Recommendation: Full fade. Pacheco will have to fall multiple rounds before I even consider mixing him in.
4. Plug Your Nose And Draft These Undervalued Dusty RB Veterans
The early double-digit rounds are generally an area of the draft that I love to attack my zero RB candidates. As the traditional RB Dead Zone dynamic has shifted with these profiles going later and later, at a certain point dead zone RBs become a value. That’s what’s currently happening with Najee Harris (108.8) and Travis Etienne (103).
Harris and Etienne have both significantly underperformed relative to their round 1 draft capital, leaving a sour taste in fantasy drafters‘ mouths. Harris (free agent) and Etienne (Tank Bigsby, rookie addition?) are both likely to be in backfield committees moving forward. Yet, both are being drafted in a range where their committee-likelihood is already well baked into their ADP. By the 9th round, the guaranteed touches are extremely valuable, especially early in the offseason when virtually nothing is guaranteed, and there’s still the asymmetric upside for 1A roles.
Dubner’s Recommendation: Mixing in these two dusty veterans at a palpable price is a good complement to your upside rookies.
