Underdog Battle Royale Data Analysis

With the release of the Underdog Battle Royale data, we have 18 slates that we can analyze. The objective of this analysis is to provide insights we can use to consistently beat the Battle Royale game format. This article will be a first look at macro trends, it will not comprehensively solve the BR format.

Methodology

I believe some of the most important trends we can analyze for the BR format are contained in two key features: two-player combinatorial ownership and full lineup duplication.

Draft style daily fantasy games have a unique distinction from salary cap style daily fantasy games in that there are constraints on player ownership. In salary cap style daily fantasy games, players can range from 0-100% owned, whereas in draft style games, a player's field ownership has a maximum value of 1/n, where n is the number of drafters in a single draft room. For the BR format, we are analyzing n=6, which gives us a maximum field ownership value of 16.67% for any individual player. Draft style games also influence the minimum ownership values for players, where the majority of players with an ADP <~22 have an ownership of 16.67%, as they are drafted in every room. We'll refer to this phenomenon as Artificial Minimum Ownership.

These ownership constraints lead to unique leverage opportunities that are much more clearly identifiable in draft style fantasy games compared to salary cap style fantasy games. For example, it would be a reasonable assumption to make that as you approach the ADP threshold that causes Artificial Minimum Ownership, small differences in projection are meaningless compared to the large differences in ownership. Sacrificing 0.1 projected points for a 30% relative ownership discount is a no-brainer. To put it simply, "scroll the eff down".

Combinatorial Ownership

But "scroll the eff down" is only scratching the surface in the ways we can create leverage in these games without sacrificing meaningful projection. We can still incorporate that strategy into our roster construction, but what if there was a way that we could accomplish the same objective and add additional leverage with other picks on our team?