Week 1 Walkthrough: James Cook Levels Up
Welcome to the Week 1 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the first glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, FTN, and Fantasy Life).
Quick Links
- Cardinals at Bills, 1 PM
- Steelers at Falcons, 1 PM
- Titans at Bears, 1 PM
- Patriots at Bengals, 1 PM
- Texans at Colts, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Panthers at Saints, 1 PM
- Vikings at Giants, 1 PM
- Raiders at Chargers, 4:05 PM
- Broncos at Seahawks, 4:05 PM
- Cowboys at Browns, 4:25 PM
- Commanders at Buccaneers, 4:25 PM
Cardinals at Bills, 1 PM
Cardinals Implied Team Total: 21.5
The 2023 Cardinals were built around the run. Their 61% pass rate wasn’t egregiously low, but they were decidedly run-heavy relative to game situation, posting a -6% PROE.
And Arizona was effective on the ground, posting solid rushing metrics across the board.
James Conner was a big driver of this success and looks to reprise his role as the Cardinals' early-down hammer. At 29, there is understandable concern about whether Conner can sustain another full season – especially if 3rd-round pick Trey Benson begins to flash. But for now, Conner should get the lion’s share of the backfield work.
Things are far less certain in the passing game. The first big question is whether Kyler Murray – another year removed from his 2022 ACL tear – can take a step forward in his second season in Drew Petzing’s offense. Murray wasn’t terrible last year, but his efficiency was mediocre.
Murray is unlikely to emerge as one of the NFL’s true elites, but his 2021 season offers some optimism that he can jump into the group of solidly-efficient passers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. should help in that regard. Harrison is a truly elite WR prospect who should see a typical starters’ complement of routes this week and may even lead the team in targets.
Harrison’s addition is a potential concern for Trey McBride. McBride was excellent last season, but his elite 2.03 YPRR and 26% TPRR were driven by a 19% first-read target rate—first among tight ends.
To be clear, first-read targets are a good thing. They can help us identify players with a durable role in their team's offense. But while McBride’s 2023 role was fully locked in, his status in 2024 is more tenuous. Specifically noteworthy is McBride’s mere 66th percentile rank in open score, making him susceptible to Harrison eventually taking over as the clear No. 1.
But Week 1 is probably not that point. And McBride’s target competition outside of Harrison is weak.
Michael Wilson struggled mightily to earn looks last season at 14% TPRR—despite facing very little double coverage. And while Greg Dortch had a buzzy offseason, his slightly-higher 16% TPRR is still pretty damn weak.
So McBride is still very much the TE1 you drafted him to be. And with the Bills likely to push the Cardinals in this game, offensive volume should more than make up for Harrison’s ability to siphon targets.
Bills Implied Team Total: 27
The Cardinals finished dead last in dropback success rate in 2023 and 31st in EPA allowed per dropback.
Although the Cardinals are a well-coached team, this defense looks to be in store for another rough year. Per the Ringer’s Shiel Kapadia, Arizona’s defensive outlook profiles worst in the NFL, including a depth chart still chock-full of question marks.
"I’m not sure this group of players is much better than last year’s. Arizona made some uninspiring signings along the defensive line and at corner. It used a first-round pick on defensive lineman Darius Robinson and a second-round pick on defensive back Max Melton. It’s possible that those guys will be good right away, but that’s far from a given. A bad pass rush combined with unproven corners is a bad combination. Bottom line: I look at the depth chart and just have a hard time seeing anything other than one of the NFL’s worst defenses."
Josh Allen’s 2023 season wasn’t what fans were hoping for, but that’s only because our expectations were stratospheric. Allen was extremely efficient, far more efficient than MVP-winner Lamar Jackson.
Allen is a great bet for production in this game environment, but it’ll be tough to predict exactly where target volume will go.
The Bills are hoping Dalton Kincaid takes a step forward and emerges as the their clear target leader. His rookie season was certainly promising. Although his 1.51 YPRR was far from elite, he was a major part of the offense, flashing strong route-running ability.
There remains some uncertainty as to whether the Bills will truly feature Kincaid or if he’ll operate merely as a key part of a receiver-by-committee approach. The good news for Kincaid drafters – assuming the Bills feature him at all this week – is that it’s hard to see him not having a strong outing.
Behind Kincaid, things quickly get very murky. Rookie Keon Coleman is expected to have a meaningful role straightaway, but his playing time and talent level are both ambiguous. Behind Coleman, the Bills have a trio of WRs who should all get run.
Curtis Samuel looks to be the best target earner of the bunch. But don’t write off Mack Hollins as a potential thorn in the side of his teammates’ production. Hollins posted a solid 1.56 YPRR last year—despite playing for Arthur Smith, catching passes from Desmond Ridder, and facing a ton of double coverage. He’s not a play in his own right, but he adds chaos.
James Cook is arguably Josh Allen’s safest weapon in this game. The Cardinals weren’t just bad against the pass last year, they were also terrible against the run.
And interestingly, opposing offenses were more prone to attack the Cardinals on the ground last season than through the air – making Arizona a massive run funnel.
When James Cook was drafted, his primary appeal was his potential for receiving production. And he’s delivered big play ability in the receiving game, posting a 1.38 YPRR in 2023. But Cook demonstrated last season he’s also a talented rusher, finishing RB10 in RYOE per game.
The big question for Cook’s outlook is whether the Bills will ever lean on him at the goal line. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has questioned the need for a designated goal-line back and I suspect Buffalo may give Cook a crack at some short-yardage runs early in the season – especially with Ray Davis still battling Ty Johnson for RB2 snaps.
This Cardinals defense is a perfect opportunity for Cook to prove he’s capable of more than just explosive plays. If Cook emerges as a league-winner in 2024, this may very well go down as a statement game.
