Week 10 Walkthrough: Justin Jefferson Week

Welcome to the Week 10 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 10th glorious football Sunday.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).

Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.

Quick Links

• Giants at Panthers, 9:30 AM, Munich
• Vikings at Jaguars, 1 PM
• 49ers at Buccaneers, 1 PM
• Bills at Colts, 1 PM
• Patriots at Bears, 1 PM
• Falcons at Saints, 1 PM
• Steelers at Commanders, 1 PM
• Broncos at Chiefs, 1 PM
• Titans at Chargers, 4:05 PM
• Eagles at Cowboys, 4:25 PM
• Jets at Cardinals, 4:25 PM

Giants at Panthers, 9:30 AM, Munich

Giants Implied Team Total: 23.5

The Giants are off to Germany this week, but not before another Brian Daboll vote of confidence for Daniel Jones. In fairness to Jones, he’s coming off a fairly efficient game against the Commanders.

Through the lens of EPA per play, it was tied for his second-best showing of the season.

For the season, Jones has not been very good. There’s a reason Brian Daboll kicks his week off by alerting the media that Daniel Jones is still his starter. But Jones hasn’t been awful, either.

This week, Jones gets a Panthers pass defense that is absolutely horrendous. If he can’t level up his game here, it really might be over for him.

The main concern here for the Giants here is volume. The Panthers are a clear run funnel.

Only the Raiders have hit a 60%+ pass rate against Carolina, and only the Broncos have posted a positive PROE.

The reason for this is pretty straightforward – the Panthers can’t stop the run.

If Brian Daboll still had Josh Allen at QB, he might ignore this run funnel setup and play aggressively against a weak pass defense. But Daboll has pivoted to the run over the last two weeks.

Overall passing volume might be a bit of an issue; the Giants are unlikely to really lean into the passing game unless pushed – which is unlikely.

But this matchup still sets the Giants up to keep the chains moving and sustain drives—which should be enough to support a big day from Malik Nabers. 

Nabers leads the NFL in target share, air yard share, and open score –which is a pretty outrageous combo, especially now poised to face this terrible defense. He’s an elite WR1.

Wan’Dale Robinson is getting targeted frequently enough to be in the WR3 mix here, with Darius Slayton (concussion) likely out.

Theo Johnson is also running enough routes to make the hey-he’s-out-there-a-lot TE tier. However, his target profile looks very weak.

Tyrone Tracy was up to 72% of snaps against the Commanders—his highest mark with Devin Singletary also active. As long as the Giants lean on him – which they look set to do – it’s very hard to poke holes in this week’s setup. Tracy hasn’t been very efficient this season, but this Carolina defense should bring out his best. He’s a high-end RB2.

Panthers Implied Team Total: 17

Dave Canales hasn’t named a starter for this game yet, but it’s pretty clear who he should go with. Andy Dalton’s 2024 season boils down to one really good game against the Raiders, one solid performance against the Bengals, and then three bottom-of-the-barrell outings.

Meanwhile, Bryce Young is coming off his strongest showing of the season—a game that bested Dalton’s efficiency in all except the Raiders game. Young also has the advantage of being a second-year player instead of a 37-year-old journeyman.

To be clear, I don’t expect Young to develop into a reliable starter. But as long as he continues to flash anything, the Panthers may as well keep him out there.

Regardless of who is under center, the Panthers are likely to keep things pretty conservative – as they have all season.

Carolina will be going against a Giants defense that can be run on.

This week, Jonathon Brooks is – finally – likely to debut. But Chuba Hubbard has been so efficient that, fresh off a new contract, he's very likely to retain a true lead role this week. Expect the game plan to likely be built around him, in fact. Hubbard is an RB2.

The Giants aren’t great against the pass, either. Young should at least be able to keep the chains moving (intermittently).

Fantasy value remains an issue in this passing game, though. With Jalen Coker seeing just 59% route participation last week, he’s very hard to trust. But Adam Thielen looks unlikely to suit up, so we should get at least one more week from Coker in the slot, for whatever that's worth.

Xavier Legette will continue in a full-time role, either way – operating as the No. 1 read at a decent rate. He’s a WR4.

If Tommy Tremble (back) misses this game, Ja’Tavion Sanders should be around 70% route participation — enough to put him in the dart throw mix. He’s flashing target-earning potential when on the field.

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Vikings at Jaguars, 1 PM

Vikings Implied Team Total: 25.5

At times, Sam Darnold has been very effective this season. But the lows have been pretty rough – as we saw last week against the Colts.

Still, Darnold is operating as a solid starter. Given his solid 48% success rate (QB14), he actually looks like a bit of a positive regression candidate.

Darnold now gets an epic positive regression opportunity against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in EPA allowed per dropback.

One of the best parts of this matchup is that Sam Darnold should have plenty of time to throw. Darnold’s 3.06s time-to-throw (TTT) is the fifth-slowest in the league.

Even without Christian Darrisaw last week, the Vikings protected Darnold pretty well. He was pressured on 33% of his dropbacks, the 16th-highest rate of Week 9. The Vikings line will now face a Jaguars pass rush that ranks dead last in win rate, and is 29th in pressure rate. Kept clean, Darnold should be able to attack downfield against a secondary that allows 15+ yard passing plays at the sixth-highest rate.

The main question here is passing volume. The Vikings have been tilted to the pass this season —with a 4% PROE. Only the Bengals (6%) are higher.

But take a look at their expected pass rates this year. Sure, the Vikings look willing to pass – but they certainly haven’t been pushed much. As a result, they have just a 59% pass rate overall, and present more like a team that dictates the run.

And although the Jaguars’ pass defense will buckle if passed on aggressively, the Eagles showed last week that you don’t have to do that if you’re committed to the run.

Still, the path of least resistance is very clearly the passing game. The Jaguars are pretty good at defending the run.

Last week, I noted that the Jaguars would have to pick their poison against the Eagles – choosing to either leave A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in single-man coverage or watch Saquon Barkley posterize them. We saw what they chose.

Against the Eagles, the Jaguars shifted to a 64% 2-high safety rate, up from their normal 50% rate. This allowed them to hit A.J. Brown with a 48% double-team rate. With Brown suffering a knee injury, DeVonta Smith also saw a very high 41% double-coverage rate. 

This week, the Jags seem likely to hit Justin Jefferson with a high double-coverage rate as well. Still… good luck stopping him. Jefferson has 3.89 YPRR against double coverage this year, ranking WR3 behind Deebo Samuel (5.32) and Jayden Reed (4.74). He’s also seen a ton of double coverage already, so his sample is pretty robust. This will shock you, I know, but turns out Justin Jefferson can beat a double team.

To return to fundamentals, Jefferson gets the softest passing matchup in the NFL – and is playing some of his best football. He’s the highest upside play of the week.

Jordan Addison’s outlook is far less enticing than Jefferson’s, but he gets the same cushy matchup – and defenses haven’t been trying to take him away this year. Thus far, he’s been doubled at just a 19% clip (16th percentile). Addison should see plenty of single-man coverage here, given that the Jaguars rank second in man-coverage rate, and will be focused on Jefferson. He’s a high-end WR3.

Jalen Nailor spends a lot of time in the slot, but he’s actually targeted fairly deep downfield – making him dart-throw viable.

But we should see T.J. Hockenson as the No. 3 target over Nailor. Against the Colts, Hockenson saw 60% route participation, with a 17% TPRR. That should ramp up further here, putting him in the low-end TE1 mix.

Even though the Jaguars are solid against the run, there should be plenty of opportunities for Aaron Jones – who’s coming off a 75% snap share against the Colts. If the Vikings play from ahead, as expected, Jones will lead the way on the ground. He’s also a key part of the receiving game. Jones is an RB1.

Jaguars Implied Team Total: 18.5

In Weeks 7-8, the Jaguars flashed a potential shift to the run, with very conservative game plans against the Patriots and Packers. But then they pivoted back to a balanced approach in Week 9.

Given that they were trailing, this led to a 71% pass rate – their second-highest of the season.

The bad news is that Trevor Lawrence was a disaster against the Eagles, turning in one of his worst games of the year.

Lawrence’s 2024 showing hasn’t been bad, but he’s profiling less as a strong pocket passer and more as an acceptable veteran starter.

FRIDAY UPDATE

The worse news is that Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is trending toward missing this game and potentially multiple weeks, leaving Mac Jones in line to start.

Mac Jones' Patriots career is remembered as a disaster, with the young QB having the audcacity to demand one (1) New England coach who knew how to run an offense.

But Jones actually had a pretty promising rookie year, and if you look at his efficiency since entering the leauge, he looks like a very capable backup.

Don't get me wrong, Jones looks like a clear and significant downgrade from Lawrence. But he's in the Gardner Minshew/Taylor Heinicke/Mason Rudolph/ Mike White zone, where we should see the offense crater with him under center in a typical matchup.

Unfortnately, this week the Jaguars get...

a very difficult test against a Vikings pass defense that has been borderline elite this season – and comes in off a strong outing against the Colts.

The Vikings can be burned for big plays, but they pressure well. That's bad news for Lawrence – who’s struggled mightily against pressure this year – or, more likely, bad news for a backup QB.

One of the issues with playing the Vikings, though, is that pivoting to the run generally doesn’t work. They have been excellent in run defense.

If anything – since they’re frequently playing from ahead on offense – the Vikings tend to emphasize opposing passing games.

So this looks like a spot where Mac Jones could really struggle—but also one where we should see at least some passing volume.

Normally, this is where I’d make a joke about Evan Engram’s PPR-scam profile as a perfect fit for this matchup. But the truth is that Engram has actually been impressively efficient this year. Coming off a 10-target game against the Eagles, he’s a TE1, even with Jones at QB.

With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out against the Eagles, Parker Washington ran 94% of routes, with Austin Trammel at 66%. Washington only played 31% of his snaps from the slot, with Trammel at 63%. So if Davis returns, it’s not clear that Washington will retain a full-time role — making him especially difficult to trust  in this difficult matchup with uncertain QB play. 

Once again, Brian Thomas looks like the only appealing non-Engram play. Thomas could struggle for consistency here… but the Vikings are actually allowing explosive plays at a high rate – while not protecting the splash zone particularly well. Thomas’ big-play potential is enough to make him a low-end WR2 even with Jones at QB.

Even with Travis Etienne back in the lineup last week, Tank Bigsby handled 67% of snaps, in a game where the Jaguars were playing from behind. Bigsby's value comes exclusively from his rushing role and he has a difficult matchup this week. But he's running well enough to make him a TD-dependent RB3.

Travis Etienne could ramp up in his second game back from injury. But Bigsby looks like a major cap on his upside this week.

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49ers at Buccaneers, 1 PM