Week 12 Walkthrough: Three Sticks of Dynamite
Welcome to the Week 12 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 12th glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:25 PM
- Patriots at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Vikings at Bears, 1 PM
- Lions at Colts, 1 PM
- Buccaneers at Giants, 1 PM
- Cowboys at Commanders, 1 PM
- Chiefs at Panthers, 1 PM
- Titans at Texans, 1 PM
- Broncos at Raiders, 4:05 PM
- 49ers at Packers, 4:25 PM
Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:25 PM
Cardinals Implied Team Total: 24.25
As I’ve noted previously this year, Kyler Murray has been very streaky. And we should expect that to continue. Murray is a player who thrives on scrambling around and making plays, often involving difficult throws. But when it’s working, as it did against the Jets in Week 10, it can really work.
Taken overall, Murray is having a very strong season – profiling as one of the best QBs in the league.
But even in games where Murray is playing extremely efficiently, we simply can’t count on passing volume from Arizona. Murray has had two truly elite performances this year – against the Rams in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 10 – and the Cardinals posted just 42% and 46% pass rates in those games.
The Cardinals now get a Seahawks run defense that is going to look tempting.
Earlier in the season, this would have looked like a very strong setup for James Conner. And Conner should be solidly efficient here; he’s run well this season. But Conner has been spelled more than usual in the Cardinals’ last two games – posting a 48% snap share in Week 9 and a 54% snap share in Week 10, ceding eight carries to Trey Benson against the Bears and 10 carries against the Jets. Conner has still averaged 15 carries over the last two games, so it’s not like he’s being phased out—but we probably can't count on workhorse usage. Even still, with six teams on bye this week, he’s a low-end RB1.
Against the pass, the Seahwks have done a good job of protecting the splash zone and preventing big plays. They also have a decent pass rush. But they’re ultimately a mediocre defense, and one that Murray should be able to exploit if he’s playing at his best.
Murray’s up-and-down play makes predicting the passing offense difficult. But we can still count on Trey McBride to see targets. McBride has a strong 24% TPRR and leads all TEs in route participation. He’s an elite TE1.
Marvin Harrison hasn’t had the season we were hoping for, but let’s zoom out and appreciate that we have a rookie WR leading his team in first-read target rate, while logging 1.90 YPRR. That is very promising for his outlook going forward. McBride is the safer bet for targets, but Harrison offers more downfield upside with a 14.6 aDOT to McBride’s 8.0. He’s a WR2.
Harrison also benefits from unimpressive WR target competition. Michael Wilson looks to have solidified his position ahead of Greg Dortch, but he isn’t bringing any efficiency to the table.
Seahawks Implied Team Total: 23.25
Geno Smith started the season strong, but he’s been less impressive over the last three weeks.
Still, Smith looks solid by the season-long metrics. He’s still profiling as a solid starter.
What Smith could really use is a solid get-right spot—exactly what the Cardinals defense offers.
For an opposing QB, the Cardinals serve up the delightful combination of exploitable coverage and a very weak pass rush. The pass rush element is particularly important here, because the Seahawks have been struggling to protect Smith this year and he’s been impressive from a clean pocket.
This matchup has the potential to get really fun if the Seahawks lean into the pass like they did earlier in the season.
But even if the Seahawks continue their recent trend toward the run, we can still expect a solid pass rate, in a game that’s expected to be competitive. The Seahawks have had at least a 60% pass rate in every week since Week 1.
With DK Metcalf out of the lineup in Weeks 9-10, Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 9.5 targets for 6.5 receptions, 125 yards, and a TD. Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett averaged just 3.0 targets for 2.0 receptions, 36 yards, and zero TDs. That usage split continued last week, with Lockett posting 2/19/0 on three targets and Smith-Njigba going for 10/110/0 on 11 targets. And, of course, DK Metcalf was back last week, going 7/70/0 on nine targets.
Smith-Njigba’s emergence looks very real in the sense that he has completely distanced himself from Lockett and is now much closer to Metcalf. But with Metcalf back, JSN’s aDOT dropped to 8.5 after spiking to 20.3 in Week 9. He also played 83% of his snaps from the slot. In other words, Smith-Njigba still occupies more of an underneath role, with Metcalf as the more explosive downfield option. JSN is playing a lot better back in that role than he was earlier this season, but he’s still a more volume-based option.
At the same time, Metcalf no longer looks like the clear-cut No. 1 in this offense, with JSN developing into legitimate target competition. But in this week’s plus matchup, Metcalf is a borderline WR1 with Smith-Njigba as a PPR WR2.
Given how weak the Cardinals’ pass defense is, it’s certainly possible that we see a high-volume passing game from the Seahawks. But if the Seahawks prefer to keep things balanced, they shouldn’t have any trouble against a weak Cardinals run defense.
This shouldn’t be seen as a clear detriment to the passing game. The Cardinals poor run defense could help the Seahawks score more points by helping keep the chains moving and sustaining drives.
But the matchup is obviously great news for the run game.
After totaling 44 RYOE through Week 7, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing efficiency has cratered. He’s fallen 42 yards short of expectations over the last three games. His season-long rushing profile doesn’t look bad, but he no longer has high-end rushing efficiency.
Walker’s receiving usage has tailed off a bit as well, although not as dramatically. But after averaging six targets per game over his first four games, he’s down to just three targets per game over his last four.
With his efficiency and receiving usage trending in the wrong direction, Walker feels like a less exciting play than he was mid-season. But this isn’t just a get-right spot for Smith and the passing offense, it’s a potential fantasy explosion for Kenny Three Sticks. He’s a locked-in RB1.
Back to Quick Links
Patriots at Dolphins, 1 PM
Patriots Implied Team Total: 19.25
After a stretch of difficult pass defenses, Drake Maye played a weak Rams unit in Week 11. He wasn’t perfect – losing a fumble and throwing a loss-sealing interception (again) – but Maye ultimately turned in a strong performance.
Per Kevin Cole, with sacks and interceptions removed, Maye actually generated more EPA on his passing attempts than Matthew Stafford in this game.
Of course… those mistakes did happen and do matter. Even exclusively viewed through a fantasy lens, Maye’s strip sack ended a drive and his interception ended the game. But it’s still nice to see the potential for high-level upside if he can clean up his play.
Maye is also playing consistently. He ranks QB16 in success rate – landing him between Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love. If he keeps that play up, his efficiency should increase – making him a positive regression candidate.
Maye now gets a Dolphins defense that is very beatable in the secondary. However, the Dolphins have a solid pass rush that generates pressure quickly. This is going to be an issue for a Patriots offensive line that still can’t protect Maye.
In a misguided attempt to protect Maye, Alex Van Pelt has been rushing frequently on 1st-and-10. Because the Patriots running game isn’t very good, this often backfires and creates more difficult later-down passing situations for the rookie.
That dynamic will likely be on display again this week; the Dolphins are very solid against the run.
Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about Van Pelt going out of his way to hide Maye at all costs. Over the last five weeks, the Patriots actually have a slight tilt to the pass – with a 1% PROE.
This matchup sets up Maye for a typical Maye game. We should expect some big errors behind the sticks against a good pass rush. But we should also see his playmaking ability on display against a weak secondary. And even if the pressure is an issue this week, Maye is always a good bet to pick up yardage with his legs. He leads all QBs with 37 scramble yards per game.
Hunter Henry continues to be Maye’s most reliable target. He’s coming off 91% route participation against the Rams, and he’s performing relatively efficiently. He’s a TE1.
Demario Douglas has seen 62% and 63% route participation over the last two weeks, with the Patriots shifting to more 2TE sets; Austin Hooper has logged 48% and 46% rates. As big road underdogs here, the Patriots may need to rely on 3WR sets more often. But if this game is competitive, Douglas’ route participation is pretty fragile.
Kayshon Boutte is running a ton of routes, just a single missed route from posting 100% participation over the last two weeks. Still, his profile remains pretty unimpressive. He’s a dart throw.
Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off back-to-back games of 20 carries – logging snap shares of 70% and 76%. He gets a difficult matchup here, but is a safe bet for a strong workload. He’s a volume-based RB2.
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 26.75
Tua Tagovailoa is coming off elite efficiency against the Raiders, his second elite performance in the last three weeks.
Tua’s style was similar in many ways to what we’ve seen for much of the year. He got the ball out very quickly, with a 2.40 second time-to-throw (TTT). And he succeeded in avoiding pressure, with a 16% pressure rate. It was very on-brand.
However, Mike McDaniel signaled that he may be opening up this passing game a bit. The Dolphins posted a 6% PROE – their first time above 1% all season.
Tagovailoa also completed three throws in the splash zone – 10+ yards and over the middle – a season high. I originally started writing about these throws because McDaniel’s offense was relentlessly geared around generating production in that area of the field. But with the priority shifting this year to protecting Tua, we’ve seen less splash zone throws. So it was nice to see a bit more of that last week, including a 57-yard TD to Jonnu Smith.
And despite McDaniel’s management, Tagovailoa is playing very well this year. He ranks QB4 in EPA per game and QB1 in success rate.
As I noted last week, the Patriots defense offers some splash zone upside for offenses worried about pass protection. New England doesn’t have a strong pass rush, and is inefficient when blitzing. They’re also not impressive in coverage – and are specifically poor at protecting the splash zone.
We’re unlikely to see Tagovailoa consistently attacking the deep-middle here. The Dolphins attack is built around Tua getting the ball out quickly. But we should still see them strategically pick their spots downfield – creating big play upside. As we saw last week when Cooper Kupp was targeted 20 yards downfield and over the middle – taking it 69 yards to the house – the Patriots can be beat on these throws.
Tyreek Hill has a strong splash zone target rate, and is the highest-upside way to play this angle. In 2023, Hill had an outrageous 3.72 YPRR – driven in part by a very strong 10.6 YPT. This year, he’s down to just 7.8 YPT, helping explain his unexciting 1.76 YPRR. Based on his 12.1 aDOT – up from last year’s 11.3 – we’d expect Hill to have a 9.1 YPT and 2.06 YPRR. In other words… Hill ran hot last year, but he’s now running cold. We don’t get too many chances to bet on Tyreek Hill as a positive regression candidate. Sign me up.
Jaylen Waddle is also seeing splash zone targets, but his overall profile is significantly weaker than Hill’s. His 1.35 YPRR is perfectly in line with his target expectations – which are unremarkable. This is a matchup that should boost efficiency, but Waddle just isn’t showing strong target-earning ability this year. He’s a WR3.
Jonnu Smith has struggled to log consistent route participation this year. But after posting a ridiculous 92% route participation last week, it’s hard not to like the recent trend.
Smith is also seeing very impressive opportunity on his routes. He leads the Dolphins – and all TEs – in splash zone target rate, and carries an impressive 22% TPRR. He’s a TE1.
Although we can expect passing game efficiency in Miami, volume isn’t assured. The Dolphins have maxed out at just a 63% pass rate with Tagovailoa under center this year.
They also face a Patriots defense against which teams have generally been tilted to the run.
Because, while the Patriots aren’t good against the pass, they’re also vulnerable to the run.
Tyreek Hill looks like the highest upside way to play the Dolphins offense, but De’Von Achane is the safest. Achane’s receiving role is locked in; he’ll contribute regardless of game script. And against a Patriots defense that can be beaten on the ground or through the air, he’s set up for an efficient outing. Achane is an elite RB1.
