Week 13 Walkthrough: Nico Collins, Nuclear
Welcome to the Week 13 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 13th glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Texans at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Vikings, 1 PM
- Steelers at Bengals, 1 PM
- Chargers at Falcons, 1 PM
- Colts at Patriots, 1 PM
- Seahawks at Jets, 1 PM
- Titans at Commanders, 1 PM
- Rams at Saints, 4:05 PM
- Buccaneers at Panthers, 4:05 PM
- Eagles at Ravens, 4:25 PM
Texans at Jaguars, 1 PM
Texans Implied Team Total: 24
C.J. Stroud is coming off a rough game against the Titans, resulting in a 32-27 loss. And his efficiency for the season as a whole looks genuinely concerning.
It’s also been a while since we’ve seen high-end efficiency from Stroud, who’s mostly ranged from mediocre to flat-out bad over the six weeks. We haven't seen impressive efficiency since all the way back in Week 4. Who did the Texans play that week again?
On the one hand, it’s not great that Stroud has largely struggled since facing the literal worst pass defense in the league. On the other hand, it’s really nice that he gets to play them a second time.
And we now have news that Trevor Lawrence is likely to start at QB for the Jaguars. That is huge news for this matchup, because it means that we aren’t totally dependent on the Texans to proactively push their advantage in the passing game.
The Texans have generally been a conservative offense. Although, that might be changing a bit. The Texans have been legitimately pass-heavy over the last two weeks, coinciding with Nico Collins’ return to play.
Houston's approach to play calling led to a 75% pass rate last week, their highest mark since Week 3. They also passed at a league-average rate against the Cowboys in Week 11 – despite a very positive game script and while facing an ultra-soft run defense.
With the Texans looking at least mildly passing-curious, we could see a fun game here if Lawrence can play through his injury effectively.
If not, the Texans don’t need to pass here.
The Jaguars’ recent opponents have actually pivoted to the run against them. They haven’t seen a 55%+ pass rate since Week 7.
This is because the Jaguars can’t defend the pass or the run. And as a bad team, opponents are generally free to play conservatively if they want to.
That makes Joe Mixon the safest bet in Houston. He’s been running very well this year, and is involved in the receiving game. He also has 94% of the backfield carries inside the red zone this year. On TD equity alone, his upside is massive. Coming off a 77% snap share against the Titans, he’s a high-end RB1.
But if Lawrence helps push this game into a high passing-volume script, Nico Collins could absolutely nuke.
Over the last two weeks, Collins has had a 77-yard TD and a 33-yard TD called back on penalties. So even without strong efficiency from Stroud, he has been very close to much bigger performances.
Sometimes it’s as simple as a superstar WR going against the worst pass defense on the planet. Collins is an elite WR1.
Tank Dell has settled into a solidly productive role with Collins back, but is far less exciting from a ceiling perspective. He’s a WR3.
Over the last two weeks, Dalton Schultz has 79% and 75% marks in route participation, so he’s still out there running a lot of routes. But with just 0.98 YPRR this year, he looks like a TD-dependent TE2.
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 20.5
Dealing with an AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder, it looked like Trevor Lawrence might undergo season-ending surgery to protect his long-term health. Instead, the Jaguars look likely to roll Lawrence back out there, protecting Doug Pederson’s remaining sliver of job security.
For the sake of the fantasy production in this game… you do you, Doug. Lawrence has been worlds better than Mac Jones this year.
In fairness to Jones, when Lawrence has been bad, he’s been really bad, turning in terrible performances against the Bills, Texans, and Eagles.
The issue is that Jones has been playing like Lawrence at his worst… without the efficiency spikes.
So, clearly, Lawrence represents a significant boost to the ceiling of this passing game. But when at his worst, he’s disconcertingly Jones-esque.
And Lawrence is returning to face a Texans defense that successfully stifled him back in Week 4.
Even after a major letdown performance against the Titans, the Texans profile as an elite defense. They pair strong coverage with an elite pass rush. And after getting lit up by Will Levis, they likely have something to prove. Lawrence’s shoulder just tightened up.
Last week, the Titans successfully pivoted to a run-heavy game plan against Houston, posting a -5% PROE and a 55% pass rate. They then allowed Will Levis to take chances.
Per Kevin Cole, Will Levis racked up 17.6 EPA on non-intercepted pass attempts… he also racked up -20.4 EPA on interceptions, sacks, and fumbles. It was a wildly up-and-down day, but one that ultimately proved to be enough as part of a run-first attack.
Lawrence should be more than willing to test the Texans deep. Lawrence has a 9.0 aDOT (QB6), with his average throw traveling 0.5 yards past the sticks (QB3). He’s only QB13 in deep pass rate, but he is largely an aggressive QB.
In Lawrence’s first game back, the Jaguars could be tempted to lean on the run – as they’ve done in recent weeks – potentially following the Titans’ Week 12 formula.
A run-heavy approach isn’t easy to pull off against the Texans, though. They have a good run defense.
Tank Bigsby has been a full go in practice this week, and could be a boost to the running game. Bigsby injured his ankle in Week 10, and was limited to 23% of snaps. He then missed Week 11. But back in Week 9, he played 52% of snaps to Travis Etienne’s 31%. Of course, the context there is that it was Travis Etienne’s first game back.
But there’s just no getting around the fact that Etienne has been an extremely disappointing runner this year. Even as a receiver, he isn’t delivering any efficiency.
Meanwhile, Bigsby has run extremely well. Like Doug Pederson after this year, I’m not coaching the Jags, so I don’t have a say. But man, if I did, I’d much prefer to lean on Bigsby in the run game.
At the very least, a healthy Bigsby spells trouble for Etienne, who’s already facing a difficult setup. Both are RB3s.
With Gabe Davis out for the season, the Jaguars figure to give Parker Washington and Devin Duvernay significant run. Ultimately, that just means less target competition for Brian Thomas, who has been very efficient in spite of it all.
Lawrence’s return raises the ceiling of the pass game… and that ceiling is named Brian Thomas.
Evan Engram continues to see targets at an elite rate, leading all TEs in TPRR and first-read target rate. With Lawrence back, he has the potential to combine volume and efficiency. He’s a TE1.
