Week 13 Walkthrough: Tyreek Hill Week
Welcome to the Week 13 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for this 13th glorious week of football.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).
Quick Links
- Dolphins at Commanders, 1 PM
- Colts at Titans, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Steelers, 1 PM
- Falcons at Jets, 1 PM
- Chargers at Patriots, 1 PM
- Lions at Saints, 1 PM
- Broncos at Texans, 1 PM
- Panthers at Buccaneers, 4:05 PM
- Browns at Rams, 4:25 PM
- 49ers at Eagles, 4:25 PM
- Chiefs at Packers, 8:20 PM
- Bengals at Jaguars, 8:15 PM, Monday
Dolphins at Commanders, 1 PM
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 29.5
Tua Tagovailoa has cooled off significantly since his blazing-hot start to the season. He’s topped out at the 50th percentile in EPA per play over his last three games and has just two games above that mark over his last eight.
But Tua did turn in an impressive success rate against the Jets last week, and his consistency has been impressive all season. Tagovailoa ranks QB4 in success rate, despite ranking only QB9 in EPA per game.
Tua’s consistency is great, but we’d love a return to the big-play-oriented passing attack the Dolphins delivered early in the season. Fortunately, they get a matchup with a Commanders defense that allows explosive passing plays at the league’s highest rate.
The Dolphins are an interesting offense from a pass-protection standpoint. They rank 23rd in pass block win rate but rank third in quick pressure rate. I interpret that dynamic like this: The Dolphins are vulnerable in pass protection but manage this weakness extremely well.
Mike McDaniel manages the issue, in part, by designing quick-hitting pass plays. Tagovailoa's average time to throw is just 2.3 seconds, the quickest in the NFL. Tua has also attempted 180 passes in 2.0 seconds or less. Josh Allen (170) and Joe Burrow (152) are the only other QBs at 150+.
The Dolphins’ quick passing game isn’t just masking a weakness, it’s generating efficiency. The Dolphins rank fifth in EPA per play on dropbacks lasting 2.0 seconds or less. They’ve also generated 31 explosive pass plays on these dropbacks, more than twice as many as the second-place 49ers (15).
Overall, the Dolphins are tied with the Texans for a league-leading 86 15+ yard passes. But whereas the Texans are producing just 15% of their explosives in 2.0 seconds or less, the Dolphins are at 36%.
This creates a dynamic where the opposition needs to have a very strong pass rush to fully shut down the Dolphins’ explosive passing game. The Commanders are not that team.
However, there’s another factor to consider here. Mike McDaniel has an efficient running game at his disposal. If dealing with a talented opposing pass rush and/or secondary, he can shift away from the passing game, limiting big play opportunities downfield. We saw this last week against the Jets. The Jets generated pressure on just 12% dropbacks, the lowest rate of the week. But the Dolphins still played things conservatively from ahead, posting a -10% PROE and a -21% PROE on 1st-and-10.
But the Commanders pair a weak pass rush with a vulnerable secondary, and they’re actually pretty decent against the run. There’s no reason to pivot away from the passing game here.
Unsurprisingly, the Commanders are profiling as a pass funnel. Opponents are averaging a 3% shift to the pass in PROE.
In summary, the Dolphins should feel confident implementing a pass-centric game plan, and they are very likely to be explosive even if the Commanders' pass rush is able to exploit Miami’s weak pass block win rate.
Even better, the potential for the Dolphins' offensive line to beat expectations against a weak Commanders pass rush sets up Tyreek Hill for a massive day.
Under normal circumstances, Hill has a big lead on Jaylen Waddle, leading 36% to 26% in targets per route run and 4.02 to 2.40 in YPRR.
But when Tua has time to throw… things really tilt in Hill’s favor. On routes of 2.0 seconds or less, Hill trails Waddle in YPRR, 3.07 to Waddle's 3.68. But on routes lasting longer than 2.0 seconds, Hill has been utterly dominant, posting an absurd 4.68 YPRR, with Waddle at just 1.34.
Sometimes football is pretty simple. If you give Tua Tagovailoa time to throw, Tyreek Hill is going to make big plays downfield.
Since trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young ahead of Week 9, the Commanders have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. And they rank 31st in quick pressure.
Tyreek Hill has the highest ceiling of the week.
The Dolphins’ running game should be plenty explosive as well, though. De’Von Achane looks more than likely to return. Achane’s rushing efficiency has been off the charts. Even on a limited workload, Achane profiles as a solid RB2.
Raheem Mostert should operate as the primary back this week, assuming the Dolphins ease Achane back in. That sets him up for another strong outing. Mostert typically cedes work to other backs, so Achane’s return isn’t necessarily a big deal—for this week, anyway. He profiles as a rock-solid RB2.
Commanders Implied Team Total: 20
Sam Howell is coming off his worst game since his disastrous Week 7 meltdown against the Giants. Against the Cowboys, he turned in just a 20th percentile showing in EPA per play. Howell also struggled in his rematch with the Giants, with a 42nd percentile mark in EPA per play.
But quietly, Howell has had a decent two-week run. He finished with a 66th-percentile success rate in each of his last two games. And considering that he was facing a blitz-happy Giants defense and a deadly Dallas pass rush, that is very encouraging. Howell appears to be making some progress as a QB. He’s up to QB21 in both success rate and EPA per game.
And Eric Bieniemy showed significant trust in Howell last week. Even against an elite pass rush, he turned in a pass-heavy game plan. The Commanders passed 5% more than expected.
Of course, that’s nothing new for Bieniemy, but it was still nice to see after the Commanders posted a -3% PROE against the Giants.
Howell now gets a Dolphins defense that is going to make his life difficult. The Dolphins have a capable pass rush and are excellent in coverage.
Howell is going to make mistakes. But his performances over the last two weeks suggests his play will be pretty capable otherwise.
However, Commanders receiving game is difficult to project because target volume is not condensed.
Curtis Samuel now leads the Commanders with a 21% TPRR. And he’s tied with Terry McLaurin with a 16% first-read target rate. The slot WR is profiling like profiling like top option in the passing game.
At the same time, Samuel isn’t an especially compelling option. He ranks just 23rd percentile in open score. If the Dolphins decided to take him away, they’d likely have little trouble doing it. However, given Vic Fangio’s defensive style, he seems unlikely to focus on preventing underneath completions to Samuel, who has just a 6.9 aDOT.
Fangio is more likely to limit downfield opportunities. And this isn’t just a narrative. The Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest yards on passes traveling 10+ air yards, behind only the Ravens.
This is bad news for McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, who both have shown very little from a route-running standpoint this year. Dotson in particular looks like a weak option. McLaurin’s 16% first-read target rate should at least keep him in the quick passing game mix.
This does look like a decent spot for Logan Thomas. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most yards to short passes over the middle of the field, which sets up decently for Thomas, given his 6.7 aDOT.
Brian Robinson saw his route participation dip to 22% against the Cowboys, his lowest since Week 3. So he remains at risk of losing work to Antonio Gibson in negative script.
But even when the game script goes against him, Robinson tends to keep a firm grip on carries. He should have a decent workload against a below-average Dolphins run defense this week.
Robinson has been solid as a rusher this season and very explosive as a receiver. His playing time projection is a bit fragile, but he still profiles as a solid RB2.
