Week 14 Walkthrough: Mike Evans, Back on Track
Welcome to the Week 14 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 14th glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Raiders at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Panthers at Eagles, 1 PM
- Jets at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Falcons at Vikings, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Titans, 1 PM
- Saints at Giants, 1 PM
- Browns at Steelers, 1 PM
- Seahawks at Cardinals, 4:05 PM
- Bills at Rams, 4:25 PM
- Bears at 49ers, 4:25 PM
Raiders at Buccaneers, 1 PM
Raiders Implied Team Total: 20
If you’re a bad team that’s still invested in winning games, you should invite variance. There’s a couple of ways to do that. You can try and slow the pace to create low-possession games, increasing variance by minimizing the number of plays each offense runs. Alternatively, you can embrace the high-variance nature of the passing game – cranking things up past even the high-level volume that negative game script already dictates. This year, the Brown and the Raiders are the best examples of the latter—that is, bad teams embracing a pass-heavy strategy.
And with Aidan O’Connell replacing the injured Gardner Minshew, the Raiders actually upgraded their passing efficiency. While O’Connell has been less consistent than Minshew, he’s also been significantly more efficient.
The Raiders now get a Buccaneers defense that has been very poor against the pass. There’s a good chance here for solid efficiency, coupled with a strong opportunity for passing volume.
That sets up Brock Bowers for another strong outing. With a 27% target share and 2.18 YPRR, his profile looks like a true No. 1 WR… except he’s a rookie TE.
Jakobi Meyers continues to operate as a solid secondary weapon, who is also set up pretty well here. He’s a low-end WR2.
In the backfield, the Raiders have deployed a committee of Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick. McCormick is showing a lot more as a runner, with 12 RYOE on 17 attempts. Abdullah has just 5 RYOE on 35 attempts this year.
Abdullah is the safer bet for snaps. But McCormick’s role is growing, and he’ll see carries on a high percentage of his snaps, limiting Abdullah to RB3 value.
The Raiders are up against a middling Buccaneers defense, making McCormick a viable TD-dependent dart throw. Abdullah is safer as a bet on PPR volume.
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 26.5
Early on, the Buccaneers were built around the quick passing game. They were effective, but also one-dimensional – sporting a running game with nonexistent value through the first five weeks of the season.
But since then, their running game has come roaring to life—coinciding exactly with when they gave Bucky Irving more run. (Weird… I wonder if that’s related.)
Meanwhile, despite Chris Godwin’s season-ending injury and a stretch of missed games from Mike Evans, the Bucs have also remained an efficient passing offense.
This gives Tampa Bay’s offense the advantage of having multiple modes of attack. Baker Mayfield isn’t Lamar Jackson, and Irving isn’t Derrick Henry, but like the Ravens, this is now a team that can pound the rock to great effect – which we saw last week. But they’re also a team that can hang in a pass-heavy shootout if pressed.
It’s been a few weeks since we saw the Buccaneers pushed to the air, but if the Raiders play aggressively, we could see the Buccaneers shift back to the pass – playing more like they did mid-season.
Of course, the Raiders aren’t good enough to come into Tampa Bay and force the Bucs to start chasing points. And Antonio Pierce would probably love a chance to play more balanced, if operating from ahead. But there’s game script upside here, should these teams progressively push each other as the game goes on. They both start balanced, but things eventually get nutty.
And should the Buccaneers start attacking through the air, they’re probably going to love the results.
The Raiders have a good pass rush, but the Bucs excel at getting the ball out quickly—and Baker Mayfield has been highly effective running the short-yardage passing attack. He ranks QB3 in quick throw attempts and QB4 in EPA on quick throws. Combined with a good offensive line, this makes it very difficult to pressure Mayfield.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are terrible in coverage, setting them up for a long afternoon if the Bucs play aggressively.
And when Mayfield has been good this year, he’s often been really good.
Overall, Mayfield has been one of the best QBs in the league this year.
This sets up Mike Evans for a potential spike week. Evans is having another strong season, combining high-end efficiency with characteristically-strong target earning. But with 521 yards through nine games, he’s at risk of failing to hit 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. This setup is tailor-made to get him back on track. He’s a locked-in WR1.
Cade Otton stepped up admirably with Godwin and Evans out, but he’s averaging just 25 yards per game over his last two outings. But those matchups were against an uncompetitive Giants team, and a Panthers squad that was predictably futile against the run. There’s more upside for passing volume here. He’s a TE1.
The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, making them a slight pass funnel… one of the reasons I’m bullish on the Bucs passing offense here.
Nevertheless, the Raiders aren’t some shutdown-quality run defense – meaning the Bucs shouldn’t be deterred from deploying a healthy dose of Bucky Irving.
Irving has been genuinely awesome this year, profiling as an excellent runner who also brings receiving versatility.
But Irving has missed practice this week, and could miss this game. And even if he goes, the Bucs still trust Rachaad White in passing situations—giving him about half the snaps.
White isn’t a zero in the running game, either. Last week, he siphoned away 11 carries. Because Irving saw 25, no one minded. But assuming the overall rushing pie shrinks, White’s siphoning could be a lot more annoying this week. Still, Irving is a bet-on-talent play in a good overall matchup for this offense. He’s a low-end RB1, if healthy.
White is a high-end RB3, as a bet on receiving volume, elevated to a volume-based RB2 if Irving sits. In that scenario, Sean Tucker would be in RB3 consideration as well.
