Week 14 Walkthrough: Rashee Rice, Target Earner

Welcome to the Week 14 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for this 14th glorious week of football.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).

Quick Links

• Ravens at Rams, 1 PM
• Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 PM
• Lions at Bears, 1 PM
• Colts at Bengals, 1 PM
• Panthers at Saints, 1 PM
• Texans at Jets, 1 PM
• Jaguars at Browns, 1 PM
• Vikings at Raiders, 4:05 PM
• Seahawks at 49ers, 4:05 PM
• Bills at Chiefs, 4:25 PM
• Broncos at Chargers, 4:25 PM
• Eagles at Cowboys, 8:20 PM
• Titans at Dolphins, 8:15 PM, Monday
• Packers at Giants, 8:15 PM, Monday

Rams at Ravens, 1 PM

Rams Implied Team Total: 16.5

Two weeks ago, Matthew Stafford played great against the Cardinals. That makes sense, the Cardinals' defense stinks. But his strong performance against the Browns was definitely a surprise. Against an elite Browns defense, he delivered a 71st-percentile EPA per play.

Stafford is now up to QB14 in EPA per game and QB20 in success rate.

Stafford gets a difficult test this week, though. The Ravens rank second in EPA allowed per dropback and third in dropback success rate. They’re also excellent against first reads and limit big plays. This is about as formidable a secondary as there is.

Fortunately, the Ravens' pass rush isn’t particularly strong. That should help the Rams manage this difficult matchup to some degree. Stafford has been impressive from a clean pocket.

And if they can protect Stafford, the Rams may be willing to lean on the passing game a bit. Based on their recent game plans, they’re unlikely to be aggressive, but it’s very possible we get a balanced game plan as opposed to a run-heavy one.

Cooper Kupp has posted 100% route participation in back-to-back weeks… which is low-key concerning. Despite running every route, Kupp has just 57 combined yards, delivering a 0.80 YPRR.

Meanwhile, Puka Nacua has 2.64 YPRR over his last two games. Kupp is likely playing at less than 100%, but it’s hard to get a read on his health, given that he’s not on the injury report and isn’t leaving the field on game day. For this week, it’s safe to assume that Puka Nacua is the Rams' No. 1 WR. The rookie has been spectacular.

Kyren Williams is locked in as the top RB, handling a ridiculous 94% of snaps against the Browns, and 84% of carries.

However, Williams will be facing an impressive Ravens run defense, so he’s unlikely to be especially efficient as a rusher. 

Still, Williams has captured an entire NFL backfield, and is bringing impressive efficiency to the table as well. Even in a difficult matchup, he’s an RB1.

Ravens Implied Team Total: 23.5

The Ravens have yet to hit a 68% pass rate this season. This is not an especially high mark. By comparison, the Bengals and Jets have hit this mark in 8-of-12 games. The 49ers are the only other team yet to have hit a 68%+ pass rate this season. 

But the Ravens are not a run-first team. They have a 0% pass rate over expected and a 6% PROE on 1st-and-10. They are open to playing aggressively but consistently find themselves in conservative environments.

But the Ravens have had two weeks to prepare for a Rams team that has been very vulnerable in coverage. Los Angeles ranks 30th in PFF’s coverage grades and isn’t defending the middle of the field well—which the Ravens are happy to attack.

Obviously, Mark Andrews was part of the Ravens’ advantage in the splash zone. But Odell Beckham has been a weapon there as well, with an 87th-percentile splash zone target rate. 

Beckham’s routes have been limited recently, but the Ravens are feeding him when he’s on the field. With a 23% first-read target rate, he has a sneaky high ceiling if given more playing time, making him an intriguing DFS play.

Zay Flowers has been more of an underneath target, but he’s also going to lead the team in routes and should draw targets at a solid rate. He’s a low-end WR2.

Ultimately, Flowers and Beckham are a bet on Jackson. And Jackson is flashing as a positive regression candidate, ranking QB6 in success rate but just QB16 in EPA per game.

Jackson will also be facing a Rams defense that ranks just 20th in EPA allowed per rush, boosting his rushing potential. 

The Ravens' elite defense has limited Jackson’s blow-up potential this year, but after a week off, he’s set to remind the world of his ceiling. 

The Rams' middling run defense also creates upside for Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell has seen his playing time steadily increase and giving him a bigger role out of the bye would be an obvious pivot.

At the very least, he limits Gus Edwards to a TD-based dart throw.

Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 PM

Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 19

Baker Mayfield just turned in his third bad game in a row in EPA per play. And concerningly, he paired that with his worst marks of the season in success rate, and completion percentage over expected.

It’s been a while since he’s played impressively. But overall, Mayfield hasn’t been bad this year, ranking QB17 in EPA per game and QB26 in success rate.

Normally, the Buccaneers are willing to pass the ball at a decent rate. Their 65% pass rate is two points above the league average. But Tampa Bay is generally passing because they’re in game scripts that encourage it.

As we saw last week, the Buccaneers are willing to play things conservatively if the game sets up that way.

This is an odd setup, in a sense. The Buccaneers will be facing a Falcons offense that is typically ultra run heavy… but should at least be tempted by the Buccaneers' pass funnel defense. And the Buccaneers offense will be facing a Falcons run defense that is very strong.

My first instinct when looking at any Falcons game is that it will be a slog. But there’s at least a chance that the Buccaneers play somewhat aggressively here and attack a Falcons defense that is solid overall but struggles to get to the passer.

The trouble, of course, is that betting on this game to be fun relies on Arthur Smith running his offense in a matchup-based – rather than identity-based – manner. And as we’ll get to, he’s jamming out pretty hard on identity right now.

This is how the Falcons, despite having a good run defense, are actually profiling as a minor run funnel.

Rachaad White continues to dominate snaps and touches, but he just doesn’t look like a very good runner. Against the Panthers, he posted an abysmal 26% success rate, contributing to a subpar 37% rate this year. And he’s not bringing much explosiveness to the table either. 

Fortunately, White remains RB1 in ESPN’s receiver ratings. He’s adding value in the passing game. But that means we’d prefer the Buccaneers to be aggressive here. White profiles a high-end volume-based RB2.

Even if the Buccaneers lean into the passing game a bit, we have efficiency concerns. The Falcons are fourth in dropback success rate allowed, and look capable of frustrating Mayfield even without a pass rush. The Buccaneers rank just 22nd in EPA per dropback with a clean pocket. 

That makes it a tough spot to rely on anyone other than Mike Evans, who is a low-end WR1 purely because of his target dominance. Last week’s matchup – which produced a 7/162/1 receiving line on 12 targets – was a far better setup. But still, Evans is producing elite efficiency and is roasting defenders. He’s up to WR3 in open score.

Falcons Implied Team Total: 20.5

Arthur Smith has been egregiously run-heavy for what feels like a decade now. If you’re reading this… you know full well that Smith likes to pound the rock. 

But it’s getting worse.

The Falcons are pairing their -10% PROE with a -11% PROE on 1st down, fully prioritizing the run game over the pass game.

Since Desmond Ridder returned to the starting role, the Falcons' highest pass rate was last week’s 49% mark. 

Is Smith an absurd human being? Or is he rationally hiding Ridder?

Can’t it be both?

Ridder was excellent before the Falcon's Week 11 bye but fell off considerably in tough matchups against the Saints and Jets. He’s down to QB36 in EPA per game. 

But… he’s a much more respectable QB19 in success rate. He’s the NFL’s grossest positive regression candidate.

Ridder now gets an extremely vulnerable Buccaneers secondary that ranks 28th in PFF’s coverage grades and allows explosive passes at the fifth-highest rate. Ridder should be able to pull out of his tailspin here.

The issue for Falcons receivers is that even though the Buccaneers can’t stop the pass, their run defense is very overrated. Despite ranking fourth in EPA allowed per rush, they’re 29th in rushing success rate. If the Falcons want to establish it, Tampa Bay isn’t going to stop them.

And, so yes… the Buccaneers are a pass funnel. But the Falcons look to have the greater gravitational force here.

The silver lining is that if playing from behind, the Falcons should be a little less stubborn than usual. But this game sets up as one where both offenses probably need to be pushed. There are some magical scenarios where these teams accidentally push each other into a fun script. But the most likely outcome is a run-heavy game.

Bijan Robinson is coming off a disappointing PPR performance, but he’s also coming off 23 opportunities—his third straight game of 22+. Robinson’s share of carries won’t be super impressive. But there should be plenty of carries to go around.

Robinson has been a strong rusher and is a clear-cut RB1 here. Even if the game script moves away from the run game, his 15% target share sets him up for a nice day.

Things are much tricker in the receiving game. Drake London is the clear No. 1 WR, but he’s bringing unimpressive route running and middling efficiency to the table. He shapes up as a FLEX.

Are you ready to get hurt again? Kyle Pitts is coming off 90% route participation and led the team with a 30% target share and 40% air yard share last week. 

And Pitts has been seeing targets in the splash zone – where the Buccaneers are weakest – at a very high rate. This is arguably his best setup of the season.