Week 15 Walkthrough: The Big Dog in the Big Apple
Welcome to the Week 15 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 15th glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Chiefs at Browns, 1 PM
- Bengals at Titans, 1 PM
- Commanders at Saints, 1 PM
- Ravens at Giants, 1 PM
- Cowboys at Broncos, 1 PM
- Jets at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Texans, 1 PM
- Colts at Broncos, 4:25 PM
- Bills at Lions, 4:25 PM
- Steelers at Eagles, 4:25 PM
- Patriots at Cardinals, 4:25 PM
- Buccaneers at Chargers, 4:25 PM
Ravens at Giants, 1 PM
Ravens Implied Team Total: 29.5
If the Ravens are in a game environment where they need to pass, they’re pretty willing to do that. But if they don’t need to pass…
This week, the Ravens most definitely do not need to pass. Their implied team total is going to settle around 30 points, with the Giants at sub-15. In Madden career mode, you’re simming this game and spending your time doing something actually challenging.
Recent opponents have understood this matchup for what it is. The Giants haven’t seen a 60%+ opposing pass rate since Week 6.
On offense, the Giants are a mess, making them unlikely to push back. And on defense, they can’t stop the run. That’s a recipe for the Big Dog to eat.
As Lamar Jackson’s early-down hammer and positive game-script closer, Derrick Henry didn’t need to have elite efficiency to post a good season. But Henry has found the fountain of youth in Baltimore, recapturing his peak efficiency with Tennessee. If not for Saquon Barkley’s even more outrageous rushing efficiency, Henry’s rushing season would be getting more attention for the historic achievement that it is. He’s set up for a big workload here, and is an elite RB1.
The Giants aren’t good against the run… but they’re not good against the pass either. Lamar Jackson’s outlook here isn’t especially exciting, but only because he doesn’t need to pass. If the Ravens allow points on defense – which they have a habit of doing – or simply lean on the pass more than expected, Jackson could have a huge day.
Jackson has fallen behind Josh Allen in the MVP race, but he’s still having an outstanding season, ranking QB3 in EPA per game.
As the clear top option in the passing game, Zay Flowers could turn in a strong day – even if the Ravens passing volume is limited. He’s had a very impressive sophomore season, and is a WR2.
Mark Andrews keeps scoring TDs, with seven in his last eight games. But Andrews has logged 75%+ route participation in just one of those games. He’s a premium TD-dependent option... but still TD dependent.
Giants Implied Team Total: 13.5
When the Giants started Tommy DeVito over Drew Lock, it struck me as rather egregious tanking. But after watching Lock the last few weeks… maybe it’s good we’re getting Tommy DeVito again?
DeVito was slightly better than Lock, but both have been terrible. The Giants need a very soft passing matchup to have any hope of efficient play from DeVito. Fortunately for them, they get the Ravens.
The issue with the Ravens is that they defend the run well. Unless you’re Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, it’s hard to rely on the ground game against Baltimore.
But we should be able to count on Brian Daboll here. He has been very willing to pass over the last three weeks, and shouldn’t shy away from this matchup.
The Steelers and the Eagles aside, teams are eager to pass the ball against Baltimore.
We should be able to count on volume here, which is all we need for Malik Nabers to deliver a productive day. He hasn’t had efficient QB play all year, but has still managed 1.91 YPRR. That’s what a 35% target share – the highest in the NFL – can do for you. Nabers also leads all WRs in open score, meaning many of those targets are earned. He should see another heavy dose of volume, and is a WR2.
For a former WR, Tyrone Tracy’s role in the passing game has been disappointing. But he jumped back up to an 83% snap share last week, and should consolidate enough volume for RB2 consideration.
