Week 15 Walkthrough: Trey McBride Strikes Gold

Pat Kerrane

16 Dec 2023

Welcome to the Week 15 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for this 15th glorious week of football.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).

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Vikings at Bengals, Saturday, 1 PM

Vikings Implied Team Total: 18.75

Kevin O’Connell has had enough of the Josh Dobbs experience, which makes sense given how poor Dobbs’ play was over his last two games.

Nick Mullens was significantly more efficient against the Raiders, although he also struggled with a poor success rate.

The good news is that Mullens now gets a Bengals defense that has been putrid against the pass. The Bengals' secondary is getting picked apart. They rank 30th in PFF’s grades and aren’t shutting down first-reads, stopping explosive plays, or protecting the deep middle of the field.

Unsurprisingly, teams are shifting to the pass against the Bengals.

With Mullins at QB, the Vikings are unlikely to go truly pass heavy. But it’s very notable that they never shifted to a truly run-heavy approach with Dobbs at QB. They twice operated with a very conservative approach on 1st-and-10, but they haven’t been lower than a -3% pass rate over expected all season.

O’Connell should be more confident in attacking this matchup with Justin Jefferson likely to play through his chest injury. Jefferson has had a rough fantasy season, but he remains an elite real-life WR. He’s delivered elite efficiency despite the highest double coverage rate in the NFL. Regardless of his QB, Jefferson is a WR1 in this matchup.

Jordan Addison is much shakier, but he’s live for some downfield production in a plus matchup, making him FLEX viable.

T.J. Hockenson continues to consistently draw targets, seeing eight more last week for a 24% target share. He’s volume-dependent, but the Vikings are likely to be balanced, at worst, in this matchup. He remains a locked-in TE1.

With Alexander Mattison out for this game, Ty Chandler is pretty interesting. Chandler should handle a big workload, he played on 58% of snaps with a 48% carry share against the Raiders. And that was with Mattison playing on 31% of snaps and handling 40% of carries.

https://www.fantasylife.com/nfl/utilization-report/game-log

And while the Bengals are a minor pass funnel, they’re also weak against the run. Chandler is a fun guy to see on best ball teams, and a volume-based RB2 in season long.

Bengals Implied Team Total: 21.75

It’s kind of nuts how good Jake Browning has been in relief of Joe Burrow. Yes, he’s getting help from the system and from his weapons. But that’s supposed to lead to Tyson Bagent-level play, not high-end efficiency.

Much of Browning’s efficiency is being driven by an elite performance against the Jaguars. But even while dealing with a thumb injury against the Colts, he was impressive.

But Zac Taylor is limiting Browning’s sample size. He’s been increasingly conservative since Browning took over.

Browning now gets a Vikings secondary that is very impressive. They rank fourth in PFF’s coverage grades, sixth in EPA allowed per dropback, and fourth in dropback success rate.

The good news for the Bengals is that so far, Browning has excelled against the blitz. And Brian Flores is going to blitz.

As good as Browning has been, this is likely to be a rocky outing. However, he can still support his weapons even if Flores gets the better of him at times. Ja’Marr Chase looks set to play through his ankle injury, and he’s a low-end WR1, as a bet on talent.

Tee Higgins is more of a FLEX. His 19% first-read target rate should keep him involved even if Browning comes back down to earth here.

But with a difficult and dangerous matchup on tap, Zac Taylor could continue his trend toward the run, choosing to attack a middling Vikings run defense.

It’s been exciting to see Chase Brown make plays over the last couple of weeks, but this still looks like Joe Mixon’s backfield.

Mixon doesn’t have a total lock on carries like he did for most of the season, but he’s a clear lead back.

And Mixon’s 42% success rate will give the Bengals confidence in leaning on him as a reliable rushing element. It’ll be more fun when Brown is out there, but Mixon will be on the field a lot more.

Steelers at Colts, Saturday, 4:30 PM

Steelers Implied Team Total: 20.5

The Steelers are clearly uninterested in featuring their passing game, especially with Mitch Trubisky under center. And, I get that.

While they weren’t as crazy run-heavy against the Patriots as they were against the Cardinals, they were still run first.

And they now get a Colts defense that has been a major run funnel.

And the Colts are our preferred style of run funnel… the kind with a bad run defense.

Unfortunately, the Steelers are not our preferred style of backfield—a split favoring the less talented back.

The Steelers have stubbornly stuck with Harris as their 1A back, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this week. The good news is that there could be enough rushing volume for both backs to eat.

While the explosive Najee narrative was silly, it is true that Harris has not been bad as a rusher. He’s been far worse than Jaylen Warren… but he also hasn’t been bad.

This is the type of matchup where we could see the Steelers truly establish it, making Harris a TD-dependent RB2.

But Warren is also in play, as a bet on his efficiency and receiving ability. Given Harris’ goal line role, Warren looks like a slightly worse bet. He’d be better off in a matchup that forced frequent checkdowns. But still, Warren will have a significant role and is bringing elite efficiency to the table as both a rusher and receiver.

The Steelers are a strong bet to limit Trubisky’s dropbacks this week, but in fairness to Mitch, he hasn’t really been worse than Pickett this year.

And fortunately, the Colts aren’t an especially formidable matchup.

Granted – and this is saying something – Trubisky is a far rougher watch than Pickett. But hey, he scrambles a little, I guess. And with an 8.9 aDOT, he’s willing to throw downfield.

The point is that the offense probably won’t take a huge hit with him under center this week, aside from potentially employing a conservative approach.

That makes both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens FLEX viable. Pickens’ emergence has led to an unfortunate situation where both WRs are cannibalizing each other’s production in an unappealing offense. But both are good real-life players–and the Steelers know it. Pickens (seven) and Johnson (six) combined for 13 first-read targets last week.

Pat Freiermuth returned to a big role last week, with all seven of his targets coming on first-read throws. Against a Colts defense that double teams WRs aggressively and doesn’t cover the splash zone well, Freiermuth is a bonafide sleeper.

Colts Implied Team Total: 22

Since losing Anthony Richardson, the Colts have been managing with thoroughly mediocre QB play.

Although Gardner Minshew hasn’t been bad overall, he has been quite bad against pressure. On clean pocket dropbacks, Minhew’s 48% success rate is slightly higher than Justin Herbert’s overall success rate this year. On pressured dropbacks… Minshew’s success rate falls to 32%, just above Tim Boyle. And he can expect pressure this week.

The problem for Shane Steichen is that the Steelers are also strong against the run.

The Colts’ playcalling has bounced around this season, but fundamentally they profile as a run-first team.

And with Minshew in a difficult spot, they’ll likely look to emphasize the ground game, despite the difficult matchup.

Either way, we know Zack Moss is going to get the work.

Moss has been disappointing in his last two outings, but his overall profile still looks strong. And he still has a lock on an entire NFL backfield. It’s a tough matchup, but Moss remains an RB1.

Given the potential for limited overall passing volume, only Michael Pittman jumps out in the receiving game. But Pittman is on a tear, with 11+ targets in four straight games. The biggest knock on Pittman’s game is that he’s “only” a shallow/intermediate target dominator. But that sounds like the type of player who stands to benefit if the Colts emphasize getting the ball out quickly. He’s a WR1.

Broncos at Lions, Saturday, 8:15 PM

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