Week 16 Walkthrough: Justin Fields, Dual Threat

Pat Kerrane

22 Dec 2023

Note - this article covers the Saturday and Sunday games. I'll be releasing a Christmas Walkthrough that covers the three games on Monday.

Welcome to the Week 16 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for this 16th glorious week of football.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).

Quick Links

Bengals at Steelers, 4:30 PM, Saturday

Bengals Implied Team Total: 19.5

Jake Browning continues to deliver in relief of Joe Burrow, turning in another solid outing against the Vikings last week.

Browning's efficiency has been crazy strong.

And the Bengals were willing to lean on him last week, posting a 71% pass rate. The Bengals played like the Bengals.

But Browning’s worst game of the year came against the Steelers in Week 12. And he’ll be facing them again this week without Ja’Marr Chase.

Browning’s struggles against the Steelers make sense, given the Bengals’ pass protection issues and the Steelers’ high-end pass rush.

Chase has seen 19% of his targets on screens this year, which is a high rate for a true No. 1 WR. His absence could be a slight boost for Joe Mixon and Chase Brown, who have both been heavily involved in the screen game. Both RBs could be a key part of a game plan designed to mitigate the Bengals’ pass protection issues.

Any kind of boost would be welcome for Joe Mixon, who is coming off a season-low 45% carry share.

https://www.fantasylife.com/nfl/utilization-report/game-log

Mixon is dealing with the emergence of explosive rookie Chase Brown, who handled 32% of carries with an 8% target share last week. And Mixon will be going against a solid Steelers run defense.

But Mixon should have a role in the quick passing game and should see sufficient rushing work to make him a PPR RB2. Even though Mixon hasn’t been explosive this year, he’s posted a strong success rate, and teams generally value reliability in the run game.

With Ja’Marr Chase out, the Bengals will need Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to step up. Both have been far less efficient than Chase.

However, Higgins’ underlying target volume has been pretty strong this season. With an 18% first-read target rate and 1.80 expected YPRR, he’s already a positive regression candidate. With Chase out, he’s a strong WR2. Boyd looks like a FLEX.

Steelers Implied Team Total: 17.5

Mike Tomlin has had enough of Mitch Trubisky, benching him against the Colts and naming Mason Rudolph the starter for this week.

But unfortunately, Rudolph represents a downgrade from Trubisky (and Kenny Pickett). Since entering the league, Rudolph has been extremely inconsistent.

Generally, the Steelers are not going to be looking the pass the ball here. Like last week, they’ll likely fight the game script, even if it calls for a high passing rate.

And the Bengals aren’t good against the run.

But it will be hard to trust Najee Harris, who managed just 33 scoreless rushing yards with a lost fumble against the Colts. And while Harris saw 50% of carries (as usual), his snap share cratered to 34%.

Harris’ reduced role was partly related to the fumble, but it’s also a reminder that Mason Rudolph’s two-down back is not an ideal fantasy bet. Harris is a TD dart throw.

Harris is also blocking the far more dynamic Jaylen Warren. But I’m not mad. Please don't put in the newspaper that I got mad.

Warren’s PPR appeal makes him a viable RB2.

If the Steelers are pushed to pass here, they should be at least moderately successful. The Bengals have been downright terrible against the pass.

But just like in the backfield, we’re looking at an unappealing split in the receiving corps. In this case, we have two players who deserve a lot of opportunity but will be dividing up a small pie.

George Pickens is having an underrated season. He looks like a legitimate weapon after mostly being a contested catch specialist last year. But Diontae Johnson keeps doing his thing, getting open and drawing targets… but then not much else after that. Both players profile as FLEX plays.

Pat Freiermuth is in the low-end TE1 mix as a bet on passing volume in a good matchup. With route participation of 83% and 87% over the last two weeks, he’ll be out there a bunch. And he’s been solid this year.

Bills at Chargers, 8 PM, Saturday

Bills Implied Team Total: 28

The Joe Brady Bills are different than the Ken Dorsey Bills. I genuinely don’t think Dorsey could have stomached a 33% pass rate, regardless of the game script.

Brady now gets an Easton Stick Chargers team that just let the Raiders drop 63 points on them… he should have some positive game script again. And the Chargers aren’t good against the run.

James Cook is fresh off a 36-point PPR explosion. But it’s important to note that Cook still didn’t handle an inside-the-5 carry… which extends his streak to 10 weeks.

Latavius Murray and Josh Allen each had two inside-the-5 carries last week, so there was goal-line work to be had; the Bills just didn’t let Cook handle it.

As a result, Cook is dependent on big plays and passing game work. Fortunately, he’s highly explosive and an elite receiving back. And Brady continues to emphasize him as a receiver. Cook is an efficiency bet… but he’s still an RB1.

The Bills may not need to pass a ton, but they should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against a defense that doesn’t even want to be around anymore.

And although Allen’s success rate has bounced around recently, he’s been solidly efficient in the new offense.

Stefon Diggs has just one double-digit PPR performance in his last five outings, but his underlying profile remains strong.

Overall passing volume is a concern, but Diggs remains the clear No. 1 in Buffalo and is going against a very poor defense. He’s a low-end WR1.

Gabe Davis offers the same boom/bust bet as usual, but this is a tough spot, given that the Bills probably won’t need to be aggressive.

Dalton Kincaid is a safer bet for targets, given a much stronger 19% TPRR. He’s a low-end TE1.

Chargers Implied Team Total: 16

As expected, Easton Stick was a massive downgrade from Justin Herbert. Given Stick’s solid success rate, it’s possible we see some positive regression. But even then, we’re probably talking about a Mitch Trubisky level of play.

Last week’s blowout and Brandon Staley’s subsequent firing make it tough to glean much from the playcalling. The Chargers were really just looking to go home.

But it’d be a surprise if outside linebackers coach and interim head coach Giff Smith is looking to get aggressive with Stick at QB—especially because the Bills aren’t great against the run.

But given the Chargers’ weaknesses on defense, it’s unlikely they’ll succeed in establishing the run, even if that’s their game plan heading in.

And that game plan wouldn’t be a great fit for Austin Ekeler.

Or Joshua Kelley.

Ekeler is ultimately a PPR RB2 fill-in as a bet on reception volume. The Bills defense looks more than capable of stifling Stick, which could lead to check downs, at least.

Joshua Palmer is the other way to bet on receiving volume here. Palmer hasn’t been very good this year, ranking just 25th percentile in open score. But he’s been far more impressive than Quentin Johnston. Palmer is FLEX viable.

Colts at Falcons, 1 PM

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