Week 17 Walkthrough: Christian McCaffrey, Legend

Welcome to the Week 17 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for this 17th glorious week of football... in what will be the final Walkthrough of the season.

We'll have plenty more playoff best ball content for you in the coming weeks, including my FFPC playoff challenge ownership projections. But this is the last game-by game-breakdown.

Best of luck in the finals this week!

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, ESPN, NFL Next Gen, and Fantasy Life).

Quick Links

• Lions at Cowboys, 8:15 PM, Saturday
• 49ers at Commanders, 1 PM
• Patriots at Bills, 1 PM
• Falcons at Bears, 1 PM
• Raiders at Colts, 1 PM
• Rams at Giants, 1 PM
• Cardinals at Eagles, 1 PM
• Saints at Buccaneers, 1 PM
• Panthers at Jaguars, 1 PM
• Dolphins at Ravens, 1 PM
• Titans at Texans, 1 PM
• Steelers at Seahawks, 4:05 PM
• Chargers at Broncos, 4:25 PM
• Bengals at Chiefs, 4:25 PM
• Packers at Vikings, 8:20 PM

Lions at Cowboys, 8:15 PM, Saturday

Lions Implied Team Total: 23.75

Jared Goff is coming off two very efficient games in a row. He was less productive against the Vikings than the Colts, throwing for just one TD instead of five, but he still posted excellent efficiency.

And overall, Goff is having a strong season.

However, the key to Goff’s game is whether he is protected from the opposing pass rush. The Lions have the second-most efficient passing game from a clean pocket. Under quick pressure, they drop to 18th. And they now face a defense that leads the NFL in quick pressure rate.

The Lions are aware of Goff’s limitations and, generally, try to avoid putting too much on his plate. We saw them go extremely run heavy just a few weeks ago.

The Cowboys are much easier to attack on the ground than through the air. Dan Campbell is likely eyeing up this rushing matchup.

The Cowboys have turned into a legitimate run funnel, with opponents attacking a weakness on the ground while also avoiding an elite pass defense.

This dynamic bodes well for David Montgomery, who should see a big chunk of the Lions’ carries even if he doesn’t lead the way in snaps.

Montgomery has been an impressive runner this year and should be a key part of the Lions' primary plan entering the game. He’s a TD-dependent RB2.

But Montgomery is fragile in a way that Jahmyr Gibbs is not. Gibbs has been a boom/bust runner, but he’s decidedly more electric than Montgomery and offers similar rushing upside even if he sees fewer carries. And Gibbs has a much stronger role in the passing game. The Cowboys' offense is too good for us to expect the Lions to simply pound the rock here, which should lead to plenty of targets for Gibbs. He’s an RB1.

Quick passes will likely be a point of emphasis this week. That should help Gibbs, but it’s also good news for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has feasted on shallow targets this year. He’s a locked-in WR1.

Jameson Williams is in a tougher spot, but he’s seen his role increase as of late, seeing a 27% TPRR against the Broncos, and 24% against the Vikings. The issue is that he’s not running routes at a full-time rate, with just 66% route participation over the last two weeks. He’s still a dart throw FLEX.

Sam LaPorta remains the clear No. 2 in the downfield passing game, pairing full-time route participation with an impressive 22% TPRR. He’s a locked-in TE1.

Cowboys Implied Team Total: 29.75

Dak Prescott rebounded a bit from a disastrous outing against the Bills. But he still wasn’t great against the Dolphins.

But he now gets a far easier matchup against a vulnerable Lions pass defense.

And the Lions are actually pretty strong against the run, which could shift playcalling toward the passing game.

We generally do see a shift toward the pass from Lions opponents.

The Cowboys aren’t playing at the ultra-aggressive levels of mid-season. But they hinted last week that they still have that gear to their offense. They likely need the Lions offense to push them to really lean into the passing game here, but there’s a reason why this game has the highest total of the week… the Cowboys can put up a lot of points.

Even after a couple of down games, Prescott is having a fantastic season.

With a quarterback who is fully capable of taking advantage of this matchup, CeeDee Lamb is set up for a massive outing. Not only are the Lions weak against the pass generally, they aren’t great against first-reads… and they are giving up explosive passing plays at the second-highest rate. Lamb is an elite play.

This is also a nice setup for Brandin Cooks, although Cooks is bringing far less to the table as a route runner and target earner. Still, he’s a deep threat in a fun setup for the downfield passing game. He’s a solid FLEX option.

Jake Ferguson serves as a bet on the Cowboys offense putting up points through the air… which they should do effectively. With a 15% first-read target rate, Ferguson has been an important element of the Cowboys’ passing game all season. He’s a TE1.

Tony Pollard continues to chug along with a majority of carries, while not bringing much rushing efficiency to the table. It’s still wild that the Cowboys finally gave Pollard dream usage this year, only to discover (along with the rest of us) that his efficiency had already expired. He’s a TD-dependent RB2.

49ers at Commanders, 1 PM

49ers Implied Team Total: 31.25

Brock Purdy’s efficiency absolutely cratered against the Ravens… four interceptions will do that.

But when looking at the season at large, Purdy still laps the field.

EPA doesn’t tell the whole story on its own. Not every QB has the scheme and surrounding talent that Purdy does. Kevin Cole’s Adjusted EPA metric accounts for various luck-based elements like yards-after-catch, interception luck, weather, drops, etc. And in that metric… Josh Allen ranks QB1.

But Purdy is still QB2.

And by a wide margin.

Fortunately, we can avoid the Purdy MVP debate here… the question is simply if Purdy can light up a woeful Commanders defense. With the answer being—yes, obviously.

The Commanders are dreadful against the pass. They don’t have a good secondary and can’t get to the passer. That’s a recipe for allowing explosive passes… which they are doing at the highest rate in the league.

The Commanders also appear overconfident… double-teaming WRs at the third-lowest rate in the league. This was a defense willing to play single-man coverage against Tyreek Hill with the safety help on the opposite side of the field (which ended up working out exactly as well as you’d expect).

This sets up quite nicely for Brandon Aiyuk, who generally sees a ton of defensive attention, and operates as the 49ers' primary downfield weapon. Aiyuk is a locked-in WR1.

Deebo Samuel is dealing with a neck injury but he looks set to play through it. He’s set up well here from a macro sense—Purdy should be highly efficient against this defense. He could also benefit from the matchup because the Commanders are less incompetent at protecting the middle of the field than in some other areas. Deebo is highly explosive, and unlike Aiyuk, his explosive plays aren’t as dependent on splash zone targets. He’s also a locked-in WR1.

The 49ers probably don’t need George Kittle in this matchup. But if they decide to feature him, there’s simply no way that the Commanders shut him down. Kittle’s ceiling is rare at the position. He’s an elite TE1.

Volume is the only real issue for 49ers pass catchers. The 49ers are willing to pass if forced to, but when they get to play their game, they establish the run. And as 12.5-point road favorites, we can expect a sub-60% pass rate here.

Although the Commanders are very weak against the pass, they’re also mediocre against the run. They have no real chance of shutting down Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey is the best play of the week seemingly every week… but man, this is a good spot. Like all RBs, McCaffrey is to some extent a reflection of the value of his offense. And his offense is valued at a 31.25-point team total. Unlike most RBs, McCaffrey’s value is very robust. He’s a great play in run-heavy game environments and a great play in pass-heavy scripts.

The simple fact is that we’re watching a generational talent in his prime, playing in the most efficient offense in football. And that offense now gets a defense that can’t shut them down… a week after suffering an embarrassing defeat. 

Buckle up.

With 25.3 PPR points per game, Christian McCaffrey is positioned for his fourth legendary campaign. Since 2000, McCaffrey and LaDanian Tomlinson (five) are the only RBs with 4+ legendary seasons. McCaffrey is the fantasy RB of a generation and it would be perfectly fitting for him to dominate the fantasy finals… which I fully expect him to do. 

Commanders Implied Team Total: 18.25

Sam Howell's season is a pretty fun fantasy football case study. Ultimately... everybody was right. If you drafted Howell as an undervalued producer, he definitely was that. I was out on Howell as a best ball pick but I started him in plenty of leagues this season, and I know firsthand how high the highs were. But if you were convinced that Howell was at risk of a late-season benching...

One of the reasons I was so out on Howell in best ball is that I thought Jacoby Brissett would make his life difficult if given a serious look as the starter. That take looked very bad for 14 weeks… and then we got a two-game sample that looks like this:

Brissett for MVP.

The beautiful thing about Eric Bieniemy’s offensive approach is that he is not willing to stop passing the ball. As I mentioned last week, he’ll bench his QB before leaning on the run. And he did it again last week.

Bieniemy will have plenty of incentive to pass the ball this week. The 49ers should put up points with ease, and the 49ers are a massive pass funnel as teams desperately try to keep pace with them.

Brissett will need to be at his very best though, against an elite 49ers defense that has a great pass rush and is excellent in coverage. And that could be tough with Brissett dealing with hamstring tightness.

But Terry McLaurin is still far more exciting with Brissett under center, even in this matchup. McLaurin was fairly quiet last week but went 3/93/1 on four targets from Brissett in Week 15 and is the most fun way to play the idea that Brissett injects some life into the Commanders’ passing game. He’s a solid FLEX.

Curtis Samuel is also a decent bet for targets and is in the FLEX conversation.

With Chris Rodriguez landing on injured reserve, it’s more likely that Brian Robinson plays through his hamstring injury. But there’s really no reason for the Commanders to risk re-injury here. And even if he goes, Robinson is at risk of quickly being phased out of the game. But he should be solidly efficient against a mediocre 49ers run defense.

If Robinson misses the game, we could see Antonio Gibson handle the full backfield for the first time all season. Gibson has maxed out at just 63% of snaps this year. 

On the one hand, Gibson’s usage is a clear indication that his coaches don’t trust him. On the other hand, he’s a passing down back in a pass funnel matchup and could have the backfield to himself.