Week 17 Walkthrough: Saquon Barkley, Legendary
Welcome to the Week 17 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 17th glorious football Sunday.
This is the final Walkthrough of the season — good luck this week and beyond.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Chargers at Patriots, 1 PM, Saturday
- Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 PM, Saturday
- Cardinals at Rams, 8 PM, Saturday
- Cowboys at Eagles, 1 PM
- Panthers at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Jets at Bills, 1 PM
- Raiders at Saints, 1 PM
- Colts at Giants, 1 PM
- Titans at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Browns, 4:05 PM
- Packers at Vikings, 4:25 PM
Chargers at Patriots, 1 PM, Saturday
Chargers Implied Team Total: 23.25
Justin Herbert has been reasonably efficient this season, but he hasn’t impressed to the degree that we know he’s capable of.
Herbert’s play has also been highly volatile throughout the year—and in a manner that defies expectations. He’s been unexpectedly poor in some soft matchups but then excellent in difficult ones, including twice against the Broncos.
But Herbert now faces a Patriots defense that is unambiguously poor against the pass. They don’t pressure the passer and are not good in coverage.
Herbert should also have a decent number of dropbacks to work with. The Chargers don’t look fully committed to the pass, but since their Week 5 bye, they’ve been much more open to passing the ball – even legitimately pass-heavy, at times.
The Chargers passing game flows through Ladd McConkey, who is putting together an extremely impressive rookie season. He’s a high-end WR2.
It’s tough to get too deep into this passing game, though. The Patriots aren’t great against the run, and with the Chargers as clear favorites, we should see a fairly balanced game plan.
Gus Edwards showed some burst to close out last week’s Broncos game, but that’s not something we’ve otherwise seen from him this year.
Fortunately, JK Dobbins is set to suit up this week and is far easier to get excited about. He's an RB2.
Patriots Implied Team Total: 18.5
Among QBs with 200+ dropbacks, Drake Maye is 15th in success rate—slotting just behind Jordan Love and just ahead of Jalen Hurts.
But in EPA per game, he’s QB23—just behind Justin Fields and Mason Rudolph.
In other words, Maye remains a positive regression candidate. He’s playing very consistently, so we’d eventually expect some things to break his way. And from an efficiency standpoint, he’s now begun to string solid performances together.
Maye’s surrounding environment obviously continues to hold him back, which is exactly what you’d expect a rabid Maye partisan like myself to say. But Maye is continuing to win over the ‘real football’ cognoscenti—this week, Ben Solak called Maye the most impressive rookie QB.
There is real upside here if Maye’s surrounding cast can step it up and close strong.
New England’s coaching staff is one of the biggest efficiency impediments, however. Sure, they’re willing to let Maye pass – but only push that edge in desperation mode – when the possibility of actually winning no longer exists. If given the chance to keep things balanced, they take it.
But this matchup still sets up as an interesting one for Maye. He’s playing behind an offensive line that allowed a 47% pressure rate with Jacoby Brissett under center. With Maye behind the line, that’s down to 38% — still high, but much less extreme. This improvement is very likely tied to the QB change. The Patriots still rank just 31st in PFF’s pass blocking grades and dead last in pass block win rate. And even with Maye’s lower pressure rate, they still rank dead last in pressure rate overall.
It’s always extremely helpful for the Patriots to face a pass rush that isn’t especially strong. And promisingly, the Chargers rank dead last in time-to-pressure.
The Chargers are strong in coverage, which means we can expect very little separation for the Patriots’ receivers. But what else is new? Among 142 qualifying WRs and TEs, Kayshon Boutte, Maye’s No. 1 WR, ranks 141st in open score, ahead of only Jonathan Mingo. Ja’Lynn Polk, the guy that the Patriots were hoping would have taken over that No. 1 role by now, ranks 139th. Maye is going to have to squeeze the ball into tight windows, but he’s been doing that all year. Boutte is a dart throw.
Demario Douglas could be more than that… if he ran more routes. But Douglas has seen 55% and 60% route participation over the last two weeks, and we can’t really expect more than that unless this turns into a blowout. He’s also a dart throw.
As usual, Hunter Henry remains the only appealing weapon in the passing game. He’s been solidly efficient this year, and we can count on solid playing time. He’s a TE1.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s playing time is in serious doubt. After fumbling for the seventh time this year and then having a backward pass bounce off his hands for a defensive TD – which was charged to Maye as a fumble – the Patriots are considering benching him.
Honestly, they should. Stevenson has been a decent chunk-play runner this year. But the Patriots aren’t going to chunk their way to anything good. They need explosives – which Antonio Gibson has flashed – with an elite elusive rating, plus strong efficiency as a receiver.
Jerod Mayo appears to be operating in the CEO archetype of head coach, which is a polite way of saying I can’t remember seeing a less hands-on head coach. Let’s hope he gets a golden parachute this offseason. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine Stevenson’s benching being more than a performative early-game demonstration before things gradually return to their usual form. That makes it hard to actually trust Gibson here, even if he’s announced as the starter.
Still, because the Chargers aren’t great against the run, both backs are in the RB3 mix.
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Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 PM, Saturday
Broncos Implied Team Total: 23.25
Bo Nix has had a very solid rookie campaign. By veteran standards, he hasn’t been super impressive, but by rookie standards, he’s hit the ground running and could take another step forward here.
Nix has had the luxury of being extremely well-protected this season behind an offensive line that ranks first in both PFF’s pass blocking grades and in pass block win rate. And now he gets a Bengals pass rush that’s not at all imposing.
Even when pressured, Nix has been impressive, avoiding sacks extremely well. But he’s also taking advantage of his strong protection, with a lengthy 2.93-second time-to-throw.
This extra time should help Nix’s production, specifically against a Bengals secondary that is allowing consistent success through the air – including a vulnerability to explosive plays.
At receiver, Sean Payton is keeping things pretty simple for fantasy football — only Courtland Sutton saw 60%+ route participation last week. He’s the No. 1, and only, weapon we can trust here. Sutton is a WR2.
The Broncos’ backfield continues to look very messy. Against the Chargers, Javonte Williams led the way with 52% of snaps – his fifth straight game between 45% and 56%. It was also his fifth straight game with less than 10 carries.
Audric Estime led the way with nine carries against the Chargers but on just a 20% snap share. Blake Watson also mixed in for 16%, matching Williams with four carries.
Even against a weak Bengals’ run defense, the Broncos’ backfield is a quagmire.
Bengals Implied Team Total: 26.75
Joe Burrow is having an extremely impressive 2024, turning in an MVP-caliber season, even though he (rightfully) won’t win it.
But even after recovering from his slow start, Burrow’s efficiency has still dipped at times. And pass protection looks to be part of the issue.
Burrow now faces a Broncos pass defense that is pressuring very effectively, in addition to covering very well.
The good news is that with the Bengals, we aren’t as reliant on passing efficiency as we are with most other teams.
Cincinnati plays a pass-heavy brand of football that sets them apart from the rest of the league.
And even though the Broncos excel against the pass, there’s no reason for the Bengals to abandon their identity here. Denver is also great at defending the run.
We don’t have to worry about passing volume at the team level… and we don’t have to worry about how targets will condense. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are forming a clear-cut tandem at WR, with a combined 54% target share.
It’s almost like, if you had these guys on a team, you’d pay both of them without hesitation.
Chase is an elite WR1, with Higgins as a borderline WR1.
And if you thought passing distribution was easy to project… well, the backfield is even easier. Chase Brown is coming off a career-high 98% snap share against the Browns. The Bengals aren’t messing around. Brown is their backfield. He’s a high-end RB1.
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Cardinals at Rams, 8 PM, Saturday
Cardinals Implied Team Total: 20.5
Kyler Murray has been astounding in several games this year. But he was at his absolute best back in Week 2… against the Rams.
And although Murray’s efficiency has fluctuated dramatically throughout the year, he’s been a very solid QB overall. He’s not a superstar, but plenty of teams would be happy to have him.
It’s easy enough to see why Murray was successful against the Rams — their pass defense stinks.
And while slightly better, the Rams are still not great against the run, either.
This has led to a run funnel effect, with teams often not needing to pass much on Los Angeles.
However, it looks likely that the run-funnel Rams are a remnant of the early-mid season, when their offensive weapons were banged up, and scoring was inconsistent. The Rams’ last three opponents have all had above-average pass rates, with both the Bills and Jets actually posting positive PROEs.
After initially looking iffy for this game, James Conner is now expected to suit up. Trey Benson still looks likely to miss, vaulting Conner from a potential zero to a potential workhorse. He makes a run-first plan of attack much more likely to succeed and is a low-end RB1.
Conner hasn’t just been efficient; he’s been a core part of what the Cardinals are looking to accomplish on offense. Even with Murray playing elite football against the Rams in Week 2, the Cardinals leaned on the run. And with a -3% PROE this year, they are a run-first team.
Week 2 represented a perfect setup for Arizona. They fed Conner 21 carries and then deployed play-action on half of Kyler Murray’s 21 dropbacks. He was highly efficient but also greatly benefited from positive game script and an effective running game.
This week, however, as 6-point road underdogs, the Cardinals are likely to be playing from behind, making it harder to lean on Conner throughout the game.
That's not ideal for the Cardinals, but it could be pretty great for us. If the Cardinals' offense clicks again here, we could get volume and efficiency.
That's especially exciting for Trey McBride. McBride has feasted on target volume this year, proving himself both an integral part of the game plan and an elite target earner. Even under an apparent TD curse, he’s an elite TE1.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is also a safe bet for targets. With a 19% first-read target rate, he has a locked-in role. Unfortunately, with a skimpy 1.57 YPRR that falls by the week, he desperately needs to find a more efficient connection with Murray. This doesn't look like an ideal setup for what the Cardinals want to do, undercutting Murray’s chances of elite efficiency. But again, we may see a more voluminous passing game than normal, up against a weak pass defense; and we don’t need the Cardinals to win; we need production from the passing game. Harrison is a WR3.
Rams Implied Team Total: 27
Back in Week 2, Matthew Stafford turned in his least efficient game of the season—part of an early-season slump, from which he’s generally recovered nicely. Four of Stafford’s six distinctly ugly outings this season were in the first six weeks.
Stafford has turned in some much stronger performances since and now profiles as a strong starter.
Stafford gets a Cardinals defense that had been trending up in efficiency before allowing Bryce Young’s most efficient game of the year in Week 16.
The Cardinals still look better than they did to start the year, but it’s more about them no longer being terrible than being a unit to be feared.
The Rams have definitely improved on offense since Week 2, with Puka Nacua now healthy and delivering elite efficiency. He leads the NFL in YPRR, TPRR, and first-read target rate. Meaning—his elite efficiency is strongly supported by his role and skill set. He’s an elite WR1.
Cooper Kupp’s role isn’t nearly as locked in as it once was. But we’re talking about a WR who has a 27% target share and 2.08 YPRR. Those are hard to find. He’s a WR2.
We’re fortunate that the Rams’ passing game is concentrated because overall passing volume is not guaranteed here.
Fundamentally, the Rams have operated as a run-first team.
And the Cardinals are not good against the run.
The Rams could be looking for revenge here, beating the Cardinals the way Arizona beat them in Week 2 – with a combination of a chunk-play run game and an efficient passing attack.
That sets up Kyren Williams for another strong workload. He’s a locked-in RB1.
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Cowboys at Eagles, 1 PM
Cowboys Implied Team Total: 15.25
Cooper Rush has played well over the last two weeks, and his overall profile is borderline respectable.
Rush has been bad in a few games this year but has only one truly awful game this season. Unfortunately, that was against the Eagles.
And Rush is now tasked with a rematch without CeeDee Lamb, who the Cowboys have shut down for the season. It’s a cataclysmic loss for this Dallas offense.
The Eagles' defense underperformed last week, but we’re still talking about a very strong pass defense that covers as well as any unit in the league.
And it’s not like you can just turn to the ground game against Philadelphia. The Eagles are also excellent against the run.
And so the Cowboys look fairly dependent on production from Brandin Cooks. Other than Lamb, he was the only Cowboys receiver with 60%+ route participation against the Buccaneers.
But it’s hard to see that going well; Cooks has been very inefficient this year.
With Lamb out, Jalen Tolbert should play a bigger role, but he’s also been very unimpressive.
Jake Ferguson looks like the most interesting fantasy option, given his strong target rate and non-disastrous efficiency. He’s a low-end TE1.
In the backfield, Rico Dowdle remains in full control. He posted a 77% snap share last week, tying his season high. Dowdle has been solid this year, and in another universe – one with a healthy Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb – he might be a pretty fun play. But in this universe, he’s a volume-based RB2.
Eagles Implied Team Total: 22.75
With Jalen Hurts ruled out this week (concussion), the Eagles have officially named Kenny Pickett as their starting QB. As you would expect, this represents a massive downgrade from Jalen Hurts.
But the Eagles are likely to minimize this downgrade… by hiding their QB. The Cowboys have an atrocious run defense, which the Eagles would be looking to attack in a normal week.
We haven’t seen a 55%+ pass rate from the Eagles since September. With Pickett under center, Philly’s game plan is a stone-cold lock to be built around Saquon Barkley.
This summer, we had the choice between De’Von Achane and Saquon Barkley in fantasy drafts. Obviously, I regret hammering Achane there. But it’s not like Achane is a bust; he’s the PPR RB7. But Achane is averaging 51 rushing yards per game, while Barkley is averaging 52 rushing yards per game… on 15+ yard runs alone.
Barkley has a chance to cap off a legendary 2024 by breaking the NFL’s single-season rushing record — and the Eagles would love for him to do that. They'd also love for him to go off this week, so they can potentially rest him for part of the Week 18 finale. He’s an elite RB1.
Kenny Pickett won’t be tasked with a ton this week unless the Cowboys are unexpectedly frisky on offense. And that’s a good thing because the Cowboys' pass defense has started to come together.
With Pickett at QB in a challenging matchup, it’s not an ideal setup for A.J. Brown. But Brown has been so outrageously good this year that he’s difficult not to click. Going back to 2017, in ESPN’s open score, we’ve only seen five instances of a WR hitting a score of 99. A.J. Brown accounts for two of those five. He’s a clear-cut WR1.
DeVonta Smith is ‘only’ a very good receiver, rather than the superstar that Brown is. This setup makes him a WR3.
